MikeC
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This is for the new potential long track system exiting the African coast right now. If it develops, which it could do soon (according to the ) or later in the week (Euro) would likely be the candidate for the name Erin. 1995's Erin was the first hurricane covered by flhurricane (before it was flhurricane).
The lounge topics are to lightly discuss storms, speculation, gut feelings, and the like. They are meant for folks to do a deep dive or discuss what's going on and speculate, not really forecast. Mixing the two creates hype which we avoid. Front page is more for observations and official forecast, this is for more about the future, AKA educated guessing, but guessing none the less. Models, particularly long range one fit speculation, they are not the final source, they do provide hints to the pattern and highlight elements, but should not be taken at face value.
The 6z starts it off pretty quickly, developing it into a tropical storm by Monday evening. It's still moving out.
The earlier few runs of the were similar, the euro doesn't really develop the system until much later, next Saturday. My guess it's somewhere in between either extreme.
0z made landfall in eastern North Carolina, after getting close, but not over the Caribbean islands, and getting into parts of the Bahamas. The euro avoids both of those, and the Carolina coastline, but makes landfall in Massachusetts and again in Maine/Nova Scotia. avoids both.
The good news is that the majority of ensembles of both the and Euro keep it offshore, however, it's not as much of majority as we would like. This system will likely need to be closely watched most of its lifetime for the Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda and the US/Canada.
0z at closest approach to Caribbean Islands
0z Bahamas
0z North Carolina:
0z Euro Closest approach to North Carolina:
0z Euro Massachusetts Landfall
0z Euro Maine Landfall:
0z Euro AI South Carolina Landfall
0z Euro Ensembles
0z Ensembles (Watch how these trend over the days)
Sometime's we'll do a deep dive in a model run or two, but not all of them here. Models get more inaccurate the further out in time it is, you look for trends, persistence/consistency, and agreement between ensembles and individual runs the most. 5 day is decent, 10 day mark is ok, beyond that it gets rough. 3 day is better, but even not perfect.
Bottom line, the most likely outcome is for this system to stay offshore.
At 10:10AM Aug 11, put out a Special Update that 97L would be upgraded directly to Tropical Storm Erin with 45 MPH max sustained winds with Advisories to begin at 11, and the title has been updated accordingly.
-Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 11 2025 10:50 AM)
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MikeC
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The 6z curves the system out to sea just west of Bermuda, in the mid-range of the ensembles here. This is similar to yesterday's 18Z run. (the 12Z was all the way to Texas, so it's jumping around)
This system staying offshore remains the most likely outcome, but not by a comfortable margin. GEFS mean is west of the operational run, and is pretty close to the northeast. The overall spread runs from roughly the TX/LA Border to Bermuda beyond 10 days.
6z closest approach to Caribbean Islands
6z run staying east of the bahamas
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MikeC
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Afternoon models, 12Z gets it closer to North Carolina, but does not landfall in the US, it Does landfall in Newfoundland in Canada though.
12z Canadian gets into the Bahamas.
12z Euro gets really close to Bermuda, but recurves just east of it.
Same idea holds, needs to be watched, but likely to stay offshore.
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MikeC
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Bermuda needs to be watching this system very closely for sure. Caribbean Bahamas, US needs to monitor for changes, but changes, but odds are low it impacts us.
0z and 6z Recurve, 6z is over Bermuda. 0z Euro also does recurve it, but close enough to Bermuda to feel it.
GFS Ensembles are pretty adamant about a recurve, Euro ensembles less so. The Euro AI is the furthest left one, but not very realistic right now.
Odds still favor turning away from the US, and generally out to sea, but still worth monitoring. Bermuda needs to watch this very closely.
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cieldumort
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A fortuitous ASCAT pass from just a few hours ago clearly shows that 97L has now developed a fairly well-defined surface circulation. Conventional satellite images since that time also show that convection persists, but is still only loosely organized. However, only a small increase in organization would likely make 97L our next TD or possibly named storm as soon as later today.
While earlier TCG would generally favor an earlier turn to the north (and ideally for those of us in North America, a recurve out to sea), steering currents this far out are not set in stone.
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cieldumort
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Above: AIFS ENS 8/10/25/06z
The most recent run of the Euro AI (AIFS) ensembles above, from 06Z today, hint at a potential move towards the US at the most extended ranges.
A recent comparison study of the accuracy of the AIFS mean (black line in the above image) to the mean and mean showed a slight increase in skill over those two.
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MikeC
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12Z and Icon shifted safely east of Bermuda. Also The 12Z shifted right to stay offshore (west of Bermuda). All are banking on a weakened Bermuda high to leave a trail with a hole in the ridge. How close the system gets to Bermuda is still a question, but barring a large change US impacts are unlikely. Still monitoring though, I'm not convinced the models are handling the ridge around Bermuda all that well.
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MikeC
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Overnight models and ensembles have set up pretty well for a ridge to build and retrograde in with a trough in about 7-8 days, leading to a recurve of the system. Which is pretty healthy looking right now, but difficult to pinpoint location exactly so it's not being tracked as a depression or storm yet, it could later today though, but it's unlikely to develop much more for a few more days (maybe around 50 west), so development early on isn't really guaranteed, which is why I think the is holding classification. It's not a bad call given the environment ahead of it.
Bermuda needs to watch, the rest of us just need to monitor for changes, but they are honestly pretty unlikely. The northeast would be the most likely impacted if things were delayed a bit.
Models overnight kept it offshore (Except for Newfoundland) and west of Bermuda, event the euro AI. It's going to be close to Bermuda though, so those there need to watch the most. With the Canadian Maritime provinces being second. Anything else would need a pretty drastic change to the general trends, something to monitor for, but if anything it would shift recurve slightly east or west of the current ensemble means. Changes to look out for are any southwest dips and ridging changes.
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MikeC
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18Z is southwest of the 6 and 12Z , but still remains offshore with no landfall. Watching general trends may take several days, as it stands 10% chance for US landfall, 90% not (includisve of that is another 10% chance for Bermuda) 2% chance for the Lesser Antilles. 15% for the Bahamas.
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MikeC
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The hurricane models (HAFS) are like 3/4 degrees south of the official forecast position at 120 hours. (about 2 south of the 12Z model runs)
Waiting to see if this continues or not, each change like this shrinks the out to sea odds. (Which still dominate)
The official forecast for 120 hours is 22N, here is 18N, 12Z's run of HAFS B was 20.1N
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MikeC
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Overnight model runs have kept back at the right, including the Hafs models, both are north of 20 north again.
Bermuda should watch closely.
It's still in monitoring mode in the Caribbean/Bahamas and US, but chances for direct impact on them are lower today than yesterday.
6z is very close to Bermuda on August 20th, euro is further west, but far enough east of North Carolina for no direct impacts except high surf.
The chances for US impacts are mostly in eastern North Carolina and new england, but unlikely for any direct impact.
For intensity, conditions aren't great in the Main Development Region, and easterlies are strong enough to keep it weak (or even have a mid/llc split for a period). But once past 60W conditions improve rapidly, especially around 50W where it'll likely be extremely conductive for development.
Two troughs, one to the northeast and another closer to Tennessee may have an impact down the road, so it's not completely clear cut. But between this is the lane out for a recurve. Meaning the Mid Atlantic, Bahamas, and Caribbean islands can't let any guard down, but Bermuda is still most likely to be closest to it.
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OrlandoDan
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Thanks for your expertise, as always, Mike.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Kraig
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Given the lack of thunderstorms all day, I'm kinda surprised that has not downgraded Erin to a TD. Even the ASCAT pass this morning showed a single barb of 36kt, mentioned in the 11am discussion yet they didn't change the intensity when the same pattern continued all day. We have seen several unnamed systems in the last year or so, including 2 off the Carolinas last summer that had better organization, banding and measured winds to get at least TD if not TS status. And there is a great swath of dry air directly in the path of Erin, and the 19kt forward speed is bringing it very close to her moisture envelope. If Erin survives until Friday, she may get a second shot at survival. Curious to watch the next few days....
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