cieldumort
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A stout tropical wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday and has rapidly blown up convection already appears to have developed at least a partially-closed low-level circulation, is now Invest-tagged, 99L.
Invest 99L is located in the extreme eastern Atlantic, and while conditions there may not be as favorable as a fledgling cyclone could like, they are supportive enough for some continued slow development. With the broad, almost gyre-like monsoon low ahead of it we have been tracking helping clear the path, 99L could have an easier go of it for a potential long-track across the Atlantic, and we are starting a Lounge on this feature at this time.
NHC has raised its chances from 10% at the 8PM last night to 30% at 2AM today, and these could be conservative.
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cieldumort
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Above: lower level winds as analyzed by ICON13K of 99L (R) near the Cabo Verde Islands and the broad, monsoonal trof ahead of it (L)
Base image cr: Zoom Earth
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cieldumort
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Triggers have been pulled for more marginal systems.
Only a very slight increase in organization would all but force Advisories to begin on 99L as TC genesis has been underway for several hours now.
CDFT Scat Analysis 8-22-25-03z
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cieldumort
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Above: Invest 99L Pseudo-VIS Gif credit: Dapiya.top
The incipient tropical cyclone is still cocooned off from dry Saharan Air around it and also traveling within a fairly steady-state pocket of light to at most low-moderate shear. With scatterometer winds supporting at least 35 knots and agencies concurring, naming or not to name at this point is almost irrelevant.
With the above consideration, early hurricane/vort-centric models do not appear to have a decent handle on the present structure of the system and may not do well to predict it just yet. Provided it does not succumb to hostile regions that surround, recon could be tasked for this over the weekend. This would help, as recon is indisputably the best source of accurate data for models to ingest in systems too far from land.
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cieldumort
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Above: Oceansat Scatterometer wind analysis of 99L on 8/22/25/0236z shows a well-defined circulation
Higher resolution versions of the above show several 35 knot vectors, but are not shown here. This is just the broad overview clearly portraying a well-defined surface circulation.
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