cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2628
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
A robust wave presently located in the Tropical Atlantic about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands has strong but conflicting model support for development, with most models very warm on its chances, but the cool as ice. Ultimately, a lot of what happens with this wave may be influenced by the trends from the lead wave ahead of it, presently located east of the Leewards.
Considering that most models are hot on this wave, that is also giving it a 70% chance of TC formation, and a future track that could follow Gabrielle and even left (west) of where Gabrielle has gone, thereby possibly putting Bermuda in play, we are starting a Lounge on this system at this time. Invest tag TBD.
The wave in the Tropical Atlantic we have been tracking was Invest tagged overnight, 93L, and the title has been updated accordingly
2025-09-23 06:00 14.2N 47.6W 20 KTS
Humberto Sep 24. The title has been updated accordingly.
2025-09-24 18:00 19.8N 54.5W 35 KTS
Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 24 2025 05:03 PM)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2628
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
EURO ensembles and Google DeepMind ensembles today have been very warm on this wave's potential to develop, and even become quite strong
Above: EPS Ensembles img credit: Tomer Burg
Above: Google DeepMind Ensembles img credit: Tomer Burg
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4804
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
ascat pass on 93 shows it unlikely to develop today.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2628
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Humberto is now in a favorable state and location for Rapid Intensification to commence and will likely become our third Major of the year in fairly short order.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2628
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
As Humberto has been stronger than models have forecast, it has been unsurprising to see that earlier the cyclone wandered a touch south of west, and thus south of forecast.
Humberto is now probably Cat 5 or very soon will be, as I write this. This is sooner than most models forecast, if they even did forecast Humberto to strengthen this much, at all. Therefore, there could continue to be a more southerly bias to Humberto's track at least in the near term (which is still more likely to be WNW-NW-NNW-N-NE-out-to-sea, overall*), as it will more easily feel the general steering flow in a much taller column. Something to keep a lookout for, as this could mix things up some, both for Humberto, as well as NINE.
*Edited for clarification
Above: CIMSS Steering Product 200-700 hPa for TCs <940mb
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Sep 27 2025 10:59 AM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
