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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida
      #26852 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:46 AM

9AM Update
Recon reports have the pressure up to 930mb this morning, meaning the storm has weakened a bit. Probably to low cat 4 / high 3 levels (Shear seems to be gaining). It's hard to say if this is a trend or not or a eyewall cycle that it will recover from. Monitoring the recon repors and satellite images will help there. The 11AM NHC advisory should be interesting. The pressure rise indicates it probably won't recover to Category 5 levels, at least not soon.

Also TD#11 is very likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Jeanne at 11.

Original Update

Still a category 5, Hurricane Ivan is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Watches are up from Morgan City, Louisiana to St. Marks in Florida, including New Orleans. The forecast track shifted a little west as well.


Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.



Image thanks to Skeetobite

The entire Watch area needs to prepare for a major hurricane.



More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop



** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26855 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:48 AM

Thanks for the new forum, Mike. Keep up the great work!

Everyone in the watch area better have all your preps done and your kits ready. At least you should all have gas or access to it...fill up the car tonight...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rule
Weather Guru


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Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: LI Phil]
      #26861 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:52 AM

Thank you MikeC and LI Phil for all your strong work!

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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: LI Phil]
      #26864 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:53 AM

BTW,

Kent put up a really funny post in the Comedy Forum...all y'all should check it out if you get a sec...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dani
Weather Watcher


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Repost [Re: rule]
      #26866 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:53 AM

Okay, so I'm a tad confused. What is causing the sudden change for landfall farther west towards New Orleans? Is the trough farther west than expected or what could be a better reason for the ms/la expected landfall.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: rule]
      #26867 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:55 AM

a repost with one addition... Scott, this keeps up and your BIloxi target just might come to fruition... then I'll have to get some of my cousins (DIxie Mafia) to perhaps to make you an offer you can't refuse... hehe

I would have never expected Ivan to get past 88 degrees period... 120K too geesh.... boy, what changes will we see at the 5 am advisory... posted earlier most of the models were left of the forecast... gee they actually went with them this time

FSU SE is also slightly west of forecast track, wonder what's its targeting...

the GOM, continuing its tradition as being the grave yard of busted forecasts... the saga continues tomorrow....


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MrSpock
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Repost on new ETA [Re: dani]
      #26868 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:55 AM

I think we are seeing the results of the change in track being reflected in the ETA, anyway. 18Z took Ivan right over New Orleans, now it looks to have shifted at least 50 miles east.
That trof looks like it is still strong, and is still digging. NNW may continue longer than expected, just like wnw did.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26869 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:05 AM

Scott, here's the score for us so far:

Scott - 1
Colleen - 0

Good job on the track prediction. I am preparing crow wings ala Creme as I type.

At this point, at the rate I'm going, my prediction of landfall in Mexico may be correct.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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BillD
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26870 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:08 AM Attachment (408 downloads)

I have been trying to grab this image for hours and the site is just so overloaded I couldn't get a full image. I finally grabbed one from about an hour ago. Anyway, this is a good radar shot of Ivan as it just passes by the Western tip of Cuba.

Bill


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LI Phil
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26871 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:08 AM

I've got a new "Atkin's Friendly" set of crow recipes...they're GRRREEEAAAT!

Seriously, though, if this track holds up...110kt winds THAT FAR INLAND?

Anyone near this track better get FAR FAR AWAY, and soon...this gets scarier by the second...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: BillD]
      #26872 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:11 AM

Nice shot

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Steveunplugged
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26873 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:11 AM

Still laughing all over the web about people steering the storm "their way". What a bunch of nuts. For those who can't separate themselves from a forecast track, they really don't need to be posting. I know it's human nature, but it's about the most annoying thing on the net. It's not as bad on CFHC as it is in other places, but it still shows up from time to time.

I broke rank and disagreed with Mike, Ed and Jason last night. I disagree with Ortt's updated forecast. I think the Hurricane Center's 11pm track is the closest to what's to come so far. Bob Breck of WVUE Fox-8 New Orleans is disputing about everything that the amateurs are posting out there. He says that anticipated wind sheer is shaping up to be far less than anticipated. He noted a ridge building in from FL and how the timing of it and the Pacific trof are key. And his associate met plotted a bunch of Gulf water temps. Fox 8 does not agree with the weakening trend for the reasons given by the NHC but do agree with a slight weakening, though that trend hasn't yet begun.

As for New Orleans, Ace was out of flashlights so I had to go to K-Mart. Cigs are stocked as is the beer. The wife and kids are blowing town to Memphis, TN tomorrow along with both of my sisters, their kids and my dad. It's going to be me and my 5 month old boxer, Chelsea, babysitting two rabbits for a neighbor and checking on my little brother's cats. Who nominated me?

Steve


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kirdona
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: LI Phil]
      #26874 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:12 AM

K.......What exactly would that mean for me? I am in Columbus and will be by myself with a 14 month old and a 3 year old. I've been thinking about driving up to see my folks in WI. Should I or would we be ok staying here? I totally do not know what to expect........

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LI Phil
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26875 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 AM

>>> It's going to be me and my 5 month old boxer, Chelsea, babysitting two rabbits for a neighbor and checking on my little brother's cats. Who nominated me?


Steve, LOL... YOU nominated you. You have, how to put this diplomatically, a tad more...um...well...guts...than many.

Be safe Big Guy! Hopefully you're on the west side of the landfall...

God help us if NO takes a direct or east of direct hit...

Peace

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: Frank P]
      #26877 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:16 AM

The probabilities from 8am to 8pm Wednesday
New Orleans and Gulfport with a 12% probability
Buras,LA with 11%.
Mobile,AL and New Iberia,LA with 10%.
Pensacola with 9%, and Panama City with a 6%


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k___g
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26878 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:16 AM

contribute, my friend, contribute...

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clyde w.
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26879 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 AM

Thought that was a large stretch of coastline under a Hurricane Watch. It's clear that the NHC forecast continues to be a below average confidence one--as they are allowing for a more western route while warning the folks all the way to the Panhandle.

What is of more concern is the intensity--if I'm reading the forecast correctly, NHC is now calling for a Cat IV at landfall. I can't imagine what that would do slamming into Mobile Bay.

Night folks...


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Frank P
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26880 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 AM

Steve, I will guarantee one thing... this is not set in stone and we will see more changes during the next 24 to 36 hours.... But I think now the area of most concert is from Bay St. Louis MS to PC.... somebody or perhaps everybody in this area is going to get creamed.. I can only pray that this forecast to Mobile holds up and I'm on the west side of the storm... we have the real possibility of a Cat 4 land falling on the gulf coast... for Mobile this will be perhaps worse than Fredrick, and that was bad.... my pucker pressure is way up.... anybody have a generator they want to sell???

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MrSpock
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26881 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 AM

One thing I should have mentioned is that the ETA has been a western outlier, which is a bias it has with nor'easters also. The 6z run from this morning had the center much closer to the Yucatan Pen., and it ended up on the tip of Cuba. At some point, it won't be far west like it has been, but I would hesitate using this model (or any model in isolation) for the landfall. I can't wait to see what the GFS did with this, and I agree with you re: the NHC. I would also note that except for a warm eddy over the N. Cent. Gulf, the warmer waters are more shallow than in the Carib., and depth does matter. The question is, will it be significant here. I don't have that answer.

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BabyCat
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: clyde w.]
      #26883 - Tue Sep 14 2004 03:22 AM

I think too the water that this this storm is carrying. I believe the surge is over 20ft.
that could really wallop the coast.


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