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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
      #27230 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:54 PM

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen

This track may have errors, all people in the Hurricane Warning area need to prepare.


Hurricane Warnings are up, and Hurricane Force Winds are likely in the warning area late tomorrow. From Grand Isle, Louisiana to Apalachicola, Florida. Including New Orleans. The 5PM Track takes it right up Mobile Bay in Alabama. Folks in the affected areas should listen to local media and officials for more information.

Tropical Storm Jeanne is also stronger at 5M, with winds up to 60MPH. This has caused Hurricane Warnings to also be issued for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. It may landfall there as a category 1 hurricane.



Hurricane Ivan has weakened today, but the weakening trend has ended, it's about to get over a very warm eddy in the Gulf and it may strengthen a bit again. As it nears the coast shear is expected and may weaken it some, however it will remain a major (Cat3+) hurricane at Landfall, and it looks like Mobile Bay will be under the gun, although a small veer east or west could put it into the other areas. Ivan is also a very large storm, so winds will be felt quite a ways.

After landfall Ivan may stall out the in the Appalachin mountains, possibly causing flooding there.

Jeanne is looking better as well, and may very well become a strong Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane before it approaches the islands. It's future track is up for grabs, but I'm leaning toward the Atlantic right now. Although, again, it may be another one to watch for Florida up to the Mid-Atlantic states. But there is nothing definite in the long term track now.

Ivan will help determine where Jeanne goes in the long term, if Ivan causes the ridge to strengthen it will move more westward, if not, it may be a fish spinner. There is a very wide spread on Jeanne's future now so we will have to watch this. Yes I know you are tired of it.


More to come...

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Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
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Event RelatedLinks

Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
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Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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FireAng85
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Where........... [Re: MikeC]
      #27236 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:09 PM

did everyone go? You guys are being quiet, what's going on??????

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Colleen A.
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Re: Where........... [Re: FireAng85]
      #27239 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:19 PM

I think people are taking a much needed breather....also, a lot of people who post here on a regular basis are in the path of this storm.
Those of us in Florida who are NOT, are turning off their tv's and getting ready for..what do you call it?
Oh yeah...LIFE.

Still lifting up prayers that this storm hits something that decreases it's intensity. We know it's going to hit, I just pray that it's not a Cat 4 at landfall. Still keeping my fingers crossed.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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andy1tom
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Re: Where........... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27240 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:23 PM

what is the thing forming just to the north of the eye?? link

Edited by andy1tom (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico [Re: MikeC]
      #27241 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:28 PM

I know it seems to be heading towards Florida but there is a short-wave trough lifting north, which will provide a time for the high to build back. This will make the storm "feel it's way around" the ridge and landfalling most likely in Mobile but this storm's path is not set in stone because the high that were dealing with is a very tricky one. After this storm makes landfall it will cause mass flooding all the way up to the Great Lakes because of that ridge. Anywhoo, Jeanne should travel into the Central Gulf but that all depends on where Ivan go's so nothing is certain about that track either as indicated by LI phil. Also as a side note, JB is making comparsions with Gloria on this wave exiting Afirca, does anyone think it could be a New England Storm, as the pattern might flip back just after Jeanne?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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No More Than Me
Unregistered




Re: Where........... [Re: andy1tom]
      #27242 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:29 PM

What is that thing North of the eye?...........Why..........it's a cataract......eye definitely needs a lens replacement!

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LI Phil
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Re: Where........... [Re: andy1tom]
      #27243 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:30 PM

>>> what is the thing forming just to the north of the eye??

an eyebrow.

Seriously, I'm not entirely certain to what you are referring, but looking at some WV loops, it looks to be a pretty immense feederband...I could very easily be wrong though...

On the previous thread, a question was posed, which to rephrase would be: "how many miles (nautical or linear) are there to one degree of longitude?)" I know I have a link for that somewhere, but I'm not looking ATTM. Maybe someone knows off the top of their head...I think it's ~60 miles or so, but again, I could be wrong.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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lilyv
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Re: Where........... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27244 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM

Spent yesterday making sure my college student left for a safe place -and for me that turned out to be sort of evacuation by proxy. So many details to take care of by multiple phone calls. I was surprized how tired I was at the end of the day.

It is good to occasionally catch a breath.


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Keith234
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Re: Where........... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27245 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM

I'm pretty sure it's 60 miles for one degree of Lat but longitude differs because of all that fuss about being in the same time zone. Also since the Earth is a sphere then it is composed of 360 degrees so that would make the time zones seperated by 15 degrees and 24 time zones I think, just some info.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:35 PM)


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MrSpock
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Re: Where........... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27246 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 PM

with out checking, and going back into the deeeeeeeep resources of my brain, I think it was in the neighborhood of 65. I wouldn't write that down as fact though.

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LI Phil
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Got it [Re: MrSpock]
      #27247 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:37 PM

http://pollux.nss.nima.mil/calc/degree.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Re: Got it [Re: LI Phil]
      #27248 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:39 PM

Great job.....forgot to think in terms of NM also. I guess the answer is 60 NM and 69 Statue miles for those who want a quicker answer.

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Steve
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Re: Where........... [Re: MrSpock]
      #27249 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:44 PM

Here's a little kid thing on lon/lat distances:

Lat/Lon Distance

After the 335 heading, Ivan's twisting a little more to the west the last frame. At 4pm, NHC had it at 24.2N, 86.6W. 20:45UTC shows it at 24.20N, 86.71W based on a rough zoom of the Goes-12 Visible. I'm wondering how much longer the western component will remain and how far west Ivan can get overall. Thoughts last night were that he'd have a tough time getting West of 87.5 even though I favored a SW MS landfall. This will be crucial as to who (that's all of you east of me) gets the landfall of the eyewall and who gets the NE quadrant.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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gonyen
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Re: Where........... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27250 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:45 PM

You can use Excel to compute the "as the crow flies" distance between any two points on the earth.

The formula to compute this distance is:

=RadiusEarth*ACOS(COS(RADIANS(90-(Lat1*24)))*COS(RADIANS(90-(Lat2*24)))+
SIN(RADIANS(90-(Lat1*24)))*SIN(RADIANS(90-(Lat2*24)))*
COS(RADIANS(24*(Long1-Long2))))

Where
Lat1 is the latitude of point 1, entered as DD:MM:SS.
Long1 is the longitude of point 1, entered as DD:MM:SS.
Lat2 is the latitude of point 2, entered as DD:MM:SS.
Long2 is the longitude of point 2, entered as DD:MM:SS.
RadiusEarth is the radius of the earth (3,963 miles or 6,377 kilometers).



The function above works only for points in the Northern and Western hemisphere, where Latitudes and Longitudes are considered to be positive. If you are mixing hemispheres, enter Northern and Western coordinates as positive, and Southern and Eastern coordinates as negative, and use the following formula:

=RadiusEarth*ACOS(COS(RADIANS(90-Lat1))*COS(RADIANS(90-Lat2))+
SIN(RADIANS(90-Lat1))*SIN(RADIANS(90-Lat2))*COS(RADIANS(Long1-Long2)))


In this formula, Lat1, Long1, Lat2, and Long2 must be entered as decimal degrees (e.g., 45.5 rather than 45:30:00).

gonyen

Edited by gonyen (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 PM)


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dani
Weather Watcher


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Re: Where........... [Re: Steve]
      #27251 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:46 PM

Just a question...wouldn't a landfall in mobile bay be worse for pensacola since they'd be on the east side of the storm?

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Thomas Email [Re: MrSpock]
      #27252 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:48 PM

Yesterday's deep south mid level shortwave trough turned Hurricane Ivan from a WNW to NNW-N heading for a number of hours. But as the shortwave trough raced NE'ward faster then I though it would, Ivan settled back into a NNW heading. Also evident on satellite imagery is a shortwave high pressure ridge now over the deep south in place of the departed shortwave trough.

I now cancel my Apalachicola to Cedar Key landfall forecast. A Biloxi, MS to Pensacola, FL landfall window is probable with a bulls eye on another shallow and vulnerable estuary called Mobile Bay.

In the nearer term I do expect a continued slowing of the forward speed on the NNW track and also continued shearing and dry air entrainment and therefore weakening. It is possible that the deepening mid level longwave trough now over the western U.S. will move eastward fast enough into the Midwest region to turn Ivan onto NNE-NE with a landfall somewhere between Panama City and Apalachicola but that scenario has a low probability.

In the mid term Ivan may once again grow to CAT 5 status as he passes across the near 90 deg. F loop current in the central Gulf Of Mexico, much like Opal in 1995. I think Ivan will landfall as a CAT 4-3 cyclone. Though most of the Florida panhandle and west coast of the peninsula should not be directly impacted, a significant storm surge should occur west of Apalachicola, with a moderate to minor storm surge as far east and south as the Tampa Bay region.

We now have Tropical Storm Jeanne (GADS!!!) in the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands. She is still rather weak and on a general WNW track at approximately 10 mph. In the near term she should threaten the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. In the mid and late term a Hurricane Jeanne will threaten a huge window between Havana, Cuba and North Carolina. I've had no time to really look closely at a probable forecast track but my initial impressions would be a beeline for the T & C Islands/Bahama Islands and the S.E. coast of Florida, then a hopeful turn NW-N east of Florida.

All this hurricane stuff is putting a crimp in my regular salt water fishing forays!!!!!

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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LI Phil
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Re: Where........... [Re: dani]
      #27253 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 PM

No a landfall in Pensacola would be worse for Pensacola. It won't be a picnic for you either way, as you'll be very close to the right eyewall (strongest winds), but you do not want the EYE coming directly over you...

Edit: Hmmmm...has Mr. Giella been reading my posts? LOL...I may get ONE forecast right this season...sorry rick & mbf

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:51 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Where........... [Re: LI Phil]
      #27254 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 PM

Hey Skeetobite............ how soon are you going to do one of your street level maps for Mobile ?? I may need it to use as leverage to get my hubby to leave !!

Thanks !


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Where........... [Re: mbfly]
      #27255 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM

It looks like another ERC again? So close to landfall too, I'll bet this isn't the last one where going to see.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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wxman007
Meteorologist


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One thing to watch.... [Re: mbfly]
      #27256 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM

If you are fans of the Tom Clancy book or movie "The Hunt For Red October", watch out later tonight and hope we don't see a "Crazy Ivan"...

Sorry, couldn't resist...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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