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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Zeta) , Major: 338 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4375
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne Track
      #30693 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:36 PM

Short Update tongiht,

Jeanne remains on track to affect Florida sometime this weekend. Hurricane Watches will likely go up sometime in the morning for the Florida east coast.



Jeanne has a lot of dry air surrounding it, which I think will keep the strengthening in check, at least for a bit, but it's been holding itself together well so far. The exact track is still fairly uncertain, but it appears that it will affect Florida this weekend.

Jeanne's track will be slow and very curved (or rounded) so the track maps aren't too good in showing this particular aspect of the storm.

Ivan appears to be a huge rainmaker for Texas, it'll be interesting to see what type of rains they get there. Stay safe there folks.

If you find yourself in a watch area tomorrow, start to prepare again in earnest.

Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Doombot!
Unregistered




Dry Jeanne [Re: MikeC]
      #30702 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:54 PM

Lookin' a little thin, don't you think?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Doombot!]
      #30703 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:56 PM

However do you mean...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Doombot!]
      #30709 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:01 AM

The consensus of opinion is that Jeanne has weakened a bit because since she has been sitting out there so long she has churned up some deeper water which tends to be cooler. She should weaken slightly by a.m. but then as she gets closer to the Bahamas she will get warmer wate and strengthen a bit maybe. Once over the Bahamas the water gets even warmer...from 80 degrees to 86 degrees with some pockets reaching up to 90 degrees in some areas. This is when we should see a little more strengthening of the storm. Is that right?

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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Jeanne Track [Re: MikeC]
      #30710 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:05 AM

Watching the animated version of the Jeanne forecast plots over time is just hilarious. What a wicked crazy storm this has been! The poor computers running these models must be ready to blow a circuit!

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Kent]
      #30711 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:08 AM

Quote:

Everyone is reading the track as a straight line point to point. The track will actually be a gradual turn from W to NW between those points right along the Florida coastline, so it looks as if it doesn't come ashore until it hits the Cape Canaveral area. This is NOT true, a rounded track will show it makes landfall down near Jupiter to Stuart/PSL area. I wish the NHC or Skeetobite or anyone could show those rounded turns instead of straight lines. It is especially important in this case as the storm is turning right at the coastline. Our local TV station actually showed this correctly. Does anyone see what I am saying?





Mike, thanks for someone finally seeing what I was saying in my previous quote above. The landfall point is way off without a curved/rounded track line.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Canadian in 60 hours [Re: LI Phil]
      #30712 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:10 AM

RIght on my forecast track and prediction... the CMC was relatively good with Frances and Ivan.... and has it going inland just north of the Space Coast... we'll see how long this holds up..

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Some Humor You Can't Refuse [Re: LI Phil]
      #30714 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 AM

Here's some humor: I turned 39 today (for the first time) and now I can officially say that I have arthritis.

Some more: at my oldest son's game last weekend, the "waterboy" who was carrying the 2-ton water sprayers that I use to spray down the kids (and coaches as needed) dropped the doggone thing on my toe! OUCH! However, it didn't really hurt until later on......
While I was watching the Miss USA pageant and decided to put my old modeling moves into play...and while twirling around the kitchen like an elephant, I missed my mark (by like a 1/2 mile) and promptly stubbed aforementioned toe on the refrigerator.
Now I know why my father didn't name me after his sister:

GRACE



(I just copied and pasted this. from the last thread..I'M A BIG KID NOW!)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Thomas's 2 cents [Re: Frank P]
      #30715 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:14 AM

Today, I once again readjust the landfall further south. I now predict a landfall between Palm Beach and Vero Beach (similar to Frances but faster) with a WNW-NW track across the Florida Peninsula, then exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico between Tarpon Springs and Bayport. I expect landfall on Sunday morning as a CAT 2 cyclone. Why this track adjustment? Strong blocking high pressure to the north over the weekend. Landfall intensity is still a tough call but I will stick with a CAT 2 for now.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Doombot!]
      #30716 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:16 AM

Quote:

Lookin' a little thin, don't you think?




Huh? Are you saying that Jeanne is drying up or are you saying she's becoming sexier? I'm not sure what the heck you're talking about. Some dry air got in there, but she actually looks quite healthy.

I definitely wouldn't refer to her as "anorexic".

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Thomas's 2 cents [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30717 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:18 AM

Richie (and fellow Yankee fan)

When did your buddy make that forecast...I only say this because one of those you posted was like 11 hours old....whatever he says only adds to the mix and should be considered along with the official NHC forecast...but they need to be fairly recent to have any value...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Doombot!
Unregistered




Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30718 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:21 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Lookin' a little thin, don't you think?




Huh? Are you saying that Jeanne is drying up or are you saying she's becoming sexier? I'm not sure what the heck you're talking about. Some dry air got in there, but she actually looks quite healthy.

I definitely wouldn't refer to her as "anorexic".



[flame suit]
Look at the WV loop...the secret gel is working! A few more loads of the stuff and you'll be able to cure jerky out there!
[/flame suit]


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Thomas's 2 cents [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30719 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:23 AM

wow WXMAN.... even has it going into the GOM, that takes balls, must be a navy man listening to the NOGAP.... hey, its all about the ridge, we all know that... but what we all DON"T know is how strong and how far south it will go... and when will it start to weaken... you figure out that, you win.... big time bonus points....

I still like the CMC model, its done well for me with both my Ivan and Frances predictions... I'm sure Mr. Giella is a hell of a lot smarter than me, but I don't buy the GOM idea at all...then again he just might nail it this time... we'll soon see for sure


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Thomas's 2 cents [Re: Frank P]
      #30720 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:27 AM

I'll await WXMANs reply...but I don't see this as a GOM storm...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Thomas's 2 cents [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30721 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:29 AM

Look at this loop: (please)

WV Loop

You can almost see how the high is building in to the west...near the Carolinas..and if you look at the GOM, you can see how that moisture is elongated N to S and Jeanne looks like she's doing the pushing. And she's definitely on a west course right now. Looking pretty healthy.

Sleep? What's sleep? I haven't slept well since August.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Doombot!]
      #30722 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:33 AM

I think the 11pm discussion covered this pretty clearly. If you go look at the GOES Floater WV loop, you will now see some purples south of the center.

p.s. You don't have to wear a flame-retardant suit. I'm not a torch-wielding witch.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30726 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:39 AM

I don't like purples. I like orange and white better.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: danielw]
      #30728 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:40 AM

I don't like purples, either. But they're there.....and TWC just showed another loop with MORE purples.

Is it just me or are they more fascinated with Ivan than Jeanne?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Yay! Nite y'all [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30729 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:41 AM

Tomorrow (today, if anyone is actually looking at their timepieces...)

We'll have a much better idea of Jeanne's plans...


No more bonus points will be awarded...Ricreig, if you are out there...GET SOME FRIGGIN SLEEP, you'll need it.

When did we do this last? Like a week ago?

Stick with CFHC,, still dying to see that Newseek or PC World article mentioning this site....

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Doombot!
Unregistered




Re: Dry Jeanne [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30731 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:44 AM

Quote:

p.s. You don't have to wear a flame-retardant suit. I'm not a torch-wielding witch.




Yeah well, you could hit me with a rock...I'm on Socrum Lp and I-4.


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