Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Depression Two Landfall at South Padre Island
      #88141 - Thu Jul 08 2010 07:00 AM

12 Noon EDT 8 July 2010 Update
Tropical Depression Two never became a storm, and may have fallen back to open wave state, but officially it made landfall at 10:30 CDT (11:30PM EDT) this morning. It accelerated this morning and made it's a approach about 6 hours earlier than expected.

Landfall was over South Padre Island.

It is bringing more rain to South Texas, but is otherwise fairly tame.

Outside of this there is nothing on track for development this weekend.

Original Update
Tropical Depression Two has actually weakened overnight, but the National Hurricane Center is still tracking it. The expected landfall time is around 5 PM CDT This evening.

Again the main threat is just rainfall. Hurricane Alex went through Northern Mexico last week causing flooding in many areas, so this aspect of it is not welcome. Other than that though, it's not much. The threat of tornadoes isn't very high from this system either.

It is forecast to become a storm before landfall, but there is a good chance it will never make it. The center of circulation lost a lot of convection overnight, it may reform some of it today, but it'll be borderline if it makes it to Tropical Storm status. Actually the upwelling from Alex last week may be one of the reasons it does not make it to Tropical Storm status.



After this system, there's an outside chance (very very low) that the system east of the Carolinas, but the best chance is that it brings rainfall to the northeast later in the week as a non-tropical system.

Beyond that there is a wave off Africa that probably won't become anything because of the Saharan Air Layer (Sal) dust concentration that will likely slow any development.

Texas Gulf Coast Links [http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html Mark Nissenbaum's radar page} East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX


Cameron County Texas, Scanner Audio Feed (Police/Fire/EMT) -- Brownsville Area

Cameron County, TX Emergency Operations Center

Southeast Texas Power Outage Map

Weather Observations:
Corpus Christi, Texas
Kingsville NAS, Texas
Harlingen, Texas
Brownsville, Texas
Matamoros, Mexico
Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Tampico, Mexico

Local Media:

Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


TD#2 Event Related Links


float2latest.gif stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD#2
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#2


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#2 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#2 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#2

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#2
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#2 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today [Re: MikeC]
      #88142 - Thu Jul 08 2010 11:27 AM

Shortest thread ever...

Tropical Depression TWO has made landfall just south of South Padre Island per the 11 AM EDT Advisory.
Life span of 12 hours. But the rains from this storm will add to the rains last week from Hurricane Alex.

The Rio Grande at Laredo is beyond Flood Stage.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=crp&gage=ldot2&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6
Flood Stage at Laredo is 8 feet. The river ws at 38.08 feet this morning.

Historical Crests
(1) 62.48 ft on 01/01/1965
(2) 61.35 ft on 06/30/1954
(3) 38.98 ft on 06/30/1971
(4) 35.02 ft on 08/27/1998
(5) 33.14 ft on 07/01/1971
(6) 32.05 ft on 07/21/1975
(7) 31.63 ft on 10/06/1971
(8) 27.66 ft on 09/27/1974
(9) 21.23 ft on 06/05/1979
(10) 20.34 ft on 07/19/1976



Total so far 7 Invests, 2 TDs ( 95L wasn't classed ) and 1 hurricane.Entering Week 8 of the season, so that's about one per week


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 08 2010 11:48 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today [Re: danielw]
      #88143 - Thu Jul 08 2010 11:44 AM

Earlier in the week we had what some thought a small TS hit La. and today we have a TD hitting Mexico and it appears weaker than some waves we track.

June and early July have been very interesting. A notable hurricane (for the month), a no name system, and a TD with little weather have combined to make for a busy 2 weeks of hurricane tracking.

Let's hope things get quiet and that shear and African dust rule the rest of the month.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today [Re: stormtiger]
      #88144 - Thu Jul 08 2010 12:27 PM

Yep, on a lighter note is anyone else noticing that the low off the coast of the Carolinas has appeared to make it to the surface? While it is still enveloped within the ULL it is spinning pretty good and kicking up some TS cells in recent images. Floater has also been changed to watch it.

Floater

BG

--------------------
Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today [Re: B_from_NC]
      #88148 - Fri Jul 09 2010 07:50 AM

Looks as though the low off the eastern seaboard is retrograding. A couple of other features out there bear watching. Upper level low @ 25n 56w. A nice blow up of convection just east of the Leewards. Albeit a little far south, the wave @ 7n 40w was looking quite vigorous last night. It's just enough to keep me watching. Have a great weekend everyone.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 15
Loc: Satellite beach, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today [Re: M.A.]
      #88152 - Sun Jul 11 2010 03:54 PM

Latest wave off Africa looks the 'best' yet this year.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: MikeC]
      #88153 - Mon Jul 12 2010 09:58 AM

Is there any potential storms in the upcoming weeks.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: Jasonch]
      #88155 - Mon Jul 12 2010 10:28 AM

No it's about as quiet as it can be for July. Things can change relatively quickly, but with the Saharan Air Layer (dust) from Africa as strong as it is right now July seems to be headed to mostly quiet.

At least for this week. Things may get going again at the end of this month into August, but for now enjoy the lack of activity.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: MikeC]
      #88156 - Mon Jul 12 2010 12:10 PM

It looks like the SAL is retrograding north. There was that big 'puff' but it seems to be weaker now. The wave that came off recently has retained more of its convection that most which looked good then fizzled when over water. This wave also looks like it has a nice moisture envelope around it as well. I think it waited just long enough to let the SAL get ahead of it. There is another impressive wave behind it at a relatively higher latitude. We shall see if that holds together as well. Just a note as to how busy the season is...in 2005 we had already had Dennis and Emily (which was a Cat5 at one point), so its hardly the busiest start we've seen. That said things can ramp up quickly

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: MikeC]
      #88157 - Mon Jul 12 2010 12:10 PM

If you look in the wunderground forums, people are already declaring a slow season, it's funny actually. The fact we already had a Hurricane with a high ACE shows we are in for an above normal season. People seem to forget that it is only July. They shouldn't just look at 2005 and say this is a slow season, seems to be the problem these days. I'm expecting activity to ramp up in about a week or two.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cumeteo
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: allan]
      #88158 - Mon Jul 12 2010 04:27 PM

Quote:

If you look in the wunderground forums, people are already declaring a slow season, it's funny actually. The fact we already had a Hurricane with a high ACE shows we are in for an above normal season. People seem to forget that it is only July. They shouldn't just look at 2005 and say this is a slow season, seems to be the problem these days. I'm expecting activity to ramp up in about a week or two.




Gosh, I hope people don't get into that line of thinking. Look at the 2004 season. That year's first named storm (also Alex) formed on the last day of July. But considering the burst of activity that followed, I doubt anyone would call the 2004 season a slow year.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: cumeteo]
      #88159 - Mon Jul 12 2010 05:26 PM

I'm starting to doubt this seasons high activity as well. The reason for this is because before the season started everybody was talking about low wind shear, very moist air and of coarse warmer sea temps. Well only 1 of those ingredients have panned out. Now I know it is early yet and things could ramp up in a hurry but I just don't know at this time. If it dosen't start picking up soon I believe those numbers will start to come down.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: Jasonch]
      #88160 - Mon Jul 12 2010 05:58 PM

I have no reason to doubt that this will be a busy year, but to expect much before August is to ignore history.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: MikeC]
      #88162 - Mon Jul 12 2010 11:31 PM

Is it true that the SAL doesn't really stop the waves, but allows the moisture to build up out in the atlantic? If so, if the moisture is siting out there waiting for SAL to go away and a wave to come in from the African coast to piggy back onto it, couldn't this just create one heck of a system? Of course, I'm just a beginner, so I don't know for sure.

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks [Re: MikeC]
      #88163 - Tue Jul 13 2010 12:02 PM

I think we will probably see two or three systems worth
watching before the month is over, as the CMC model
continues to pick up on a disturbance moving into the
Western Caribbean this upcoming weekend.
Also, the NAM model is depicting some type of tropical
disturbance developing in the Central Gulf of Mexico by
the weekend. Both of these solutions seem possible.
I think it is just a bit too soon to say that this year won't
be active in terms of tropical systems.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression Two Landfall at South Padre Island [Re: MikeC]
      #88173 - Thu Jul 15 2010 02:11 PM

The NHC has highlighted a code yellow area (10%) out in the Atlantic
this afternoon. They say conditions will become more favorable for some
development over the next day or two. The GFS carries this wave into the
Leeward Islands by Sunday evening.
We may have something to track by this weekend.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 14040

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center