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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2664
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 99L Lounge
      #99025 - Wed Sep 27 2017 09:44 PM



An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and mid-level trof, presently centered just south of Cuba at the time of this post, is in a slightly favorable environment for slow development over the next 48 hours, and potentially modestly favorable environment overall over the course of the next five days as it tracks north, and then possibly northwest or west.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but NHC has highlighted it within its TWOs today, and gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone within 120 hours.

Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely enhance rains across Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida for the next several days, and we are now watching it closely for any signs of development. Presently, model support is lukewarm, with the ECMWF, GFS, GEM and others on board for at least some slow cooking. Stay tuned.


Title updated to reflect Invest tag - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 28 2017 05:23 PM)

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Caribbean Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #99033 - Thu Sep 28 2017 05:21 PM


This disturbance has been Invest tagged 99L as of 1800 today, and the title has been updated. At that time Invest 99L was analyzed to be centered near 23.3N 79.6W. Maximum sustained winds were light at about 20 knots, with min pressure of about 1012mb.

NHC 5-Day development odds up to 50% ... sort of a similar setup as Tammy (2005), although not as clear that it will ride up and/or form right along the Florida east coast (but favored).

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


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Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Caribbean Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #99035 - Fri Sep 29 2017 11:39 AM

Here on Sanibel, a very nice cloudy Florida late September day. Rain has not yet started.

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