MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Near-Category 5 Hurricane Ivan in the Caribbean Sea
Thu Sep 09 2004 02:41 AM
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Ivan is looking absolutely astounding on the satellite images tonight.. A Category 4 borderline 5 (forecast to become a 5 now). The central dense overcast around the eye is perfect at the moment. Luckily I don't think it'll hold this intensity long.
Note: Still category 4 as of 11PM:
Although, unfortunately, think it will be on the high end of the major hurricane scale as it approaches Jamaica.
Right now the track puts it over cuba, and once again into the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida. This is a larger system, like Frances. So it is likely effects may be felt across a wider area. The forecast track shifted a bit right at 11PM tonight as well. Hopefully it'll keep shifting right and go out to sea and miss the US entirely.
It still has a chance to meander to the west and avoid the gulf, but the more likely scenario is for it to head over cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Which would unfortunately put the western coast of Florida and the rest of the Gulf coastal regions in watch mode again.
If it were to approach Florida it would come in again at an odd angle, causing warnings up and down the coast similar to Charley (if not longer). The areas hit by Charley will be under the gun, and likely Tampa again. I hope, for Florida's sake. It decides to ditch the idea of a vacation there. Venice, Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers, Key West, Sarasota, Tampa and the panhandle are the models current destinations. Not again!
The islands of the Caribbean, Mexico and the Gulf states need to watch Ivan over the next week -- especially Florida. (Again.. I just hope we don't strikeout)
I don't think it will be a category 5 when it makes landfall, however.
Event RelatedLinks
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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