Amazingly, Ivan Stays South of Jamaica

Overnight Ivan deepened at one point, possibly briefly to Camille levels, but then lstarted an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened a bit.

That's not the real news, however, that is although Jamaica still received very heavy rains and wind, and likely lots of problems, the eye of the Hurricane remained to the south of the island. Hurricane Ivan 's currently just southwest of the Island. Which is great news.

Although the storm was forecast to clip the western edge of Jamaica, the overnight "wobble" to the west will keep it from doing so. It's still not clear Jamaica now, so currently their winds are getting high, but Jamaica was spared the extreme worst part of the storm.

This leftward motion has increased the chance for a panhandle strike later on, but the cone of error is still extremely large. It's interesting to note that forecasts have been overdoing the motion to the right. It will be interesting watching the trends as it heads closer to Cuba.

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