Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

11:30AM Update
Jeanne is nearing Hurricane strength. Track now takes it closer to the eastern Bahamas.

Ivan is right now on a very slow weakening trend, it's eyewall is still solid, so I don't think any rapid weakening will happen. It's still over warmer waters, so the only other negative effects are shear and dry air. It will probably weaken a little more, but still remain a cat 3, it does, however have a good chance to maintain its current strength.

7AM Update
Ivan is still a category 4 this morning, although the pressure is risen. Some dry air distruption happened last night which has weakened it a bit, but the center is holding together so it may still have time to fluctuate (up and down) before it makes landfall overnight tonight into Thursday)

The motion right now is sure to make folks nervous, but the forecast track has it moving a bit more northeast, but that entire area is well within the cone. The official track still has it crossing at or just west of Mobile, Alabama.
Original Update
Hurricane Ivan remains a Category 4 Hurricane, 140MPH winds, and about to move over much warmer warm current eddys then mover shallower water to get cooler. Timeline would be overnight tomorrow, with conditions getting worse toward the afternoon into the evening. Everyone in the warning area should be prepared for this tomorrow.

After it makes landfall it'll move up into Northern Georgia, Tennessee, and Western North Carolina and likely sit for a day or so, being a huge rain event there.

Jeanne remains at 60MPH winds, with the center somewhat moving out from the convection. Jeanne is moving west northwest and would eventually wind up near the Eastern Bahamas.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay/Ruskin,FL (West Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use

Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606

Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US