Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
Wed Sep 15 2004 11:01 PM
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7AM Update
From the NHC
THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.
Jeanne is close to hurricane strength...and has continued westward across the Mona Passage.
Midnight (EDT) Update
Ivan now about 50 miles south of Mobile Bay and indeed moving just east of due north - which would make landfall just east of the Bay (and avoid at least some of that flooding). Lets hope so anyway for the sake of those in the Mobile area.
Original Post:
Hurricane Ivan
From NHC at 16/03Z:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.
At 16/02Z, Hurricane Ivan was about 70 mles south of Mobile, Alabama, moving north at about 10mph. Landfall should be around 05Z near the west point of Mobile Bay with sustained winds of 130mph gusting to at least 160mph. If this landfall point verifies, the backwater flooding in Mobile Bay will be extreme. Expect a storm surge of 16 feet from Mobile to Pensacola with a few spots exceeding 20 feet. From Pensacola to Destin, storm surge of at least 13 feet and from Destin to Mexico Beach the surge should be around 10 feet.
With such a slow moving and powerful storm, hurricane force winds in the area immediately to the east of landfall will prevail for 8 to 10 hours and will extend well inland. For those that are in Ivan's direct path, eye passage wil last about two hours and, except for the storm surge, this is one of the most dangerous timeframes for injury - near darkness, broken glass, weakened structures and downed power lines. Exercise extreme caution should you venture outside during passage of the eye. Ivan will continue a slow north to north northeast movement and may stall out in northern Alabama - producing a significant flood event in the Southeast over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Jeanne
From NHC at 16/03Z
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO LA PLATA. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.
AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
PUERTO RICO. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
Jeanne departed the northwest tip of Puerto Rico around 16/01Z and almost immediately regained excellent structure and began to develop a weak eye. She should aquire hurricane status tomorrow morning. For the last couple of hours Jeanne has been moving due west , which means an almost certain close encounter with Hispaniola and its high terrain. Jeanne is a very compact storm and I expect her to skirt the coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Jeanne could pose a threat to Florida and the Southeast - perhaps on Tuesday. The GFS 18Z run takes Jeanne on a wild ride through South Florida, then west southwestward toward the Yucatan, and then zips her back across the peninsula again - a track that would just about drive Floridians over the edge (at least those that are not already there). Strong Atlantic high pressure, surging southwestward, should certainly delay any turn to the north, so Jeanne needs to be carefully watched over the next few days.
Invest 91L
Located near 11N 26W at 16/00Z and is still not very well organized, however, slow development seems likely over the next couple of days...and another strong wave is about to exit the coast of west Africa. By next Thursday, its not out of the question that we will all be tracking 'Karl' and 'Lisa'.
ED
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Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Mobile Radar
Dauphin Island Weather Station Reports
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Another Mobile Radar
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 16 2004 06:54 AM)
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