Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine

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Hurricane Warnings are now up for the same watch area as earlier for Jeanne, it appears Jeanne may skirt along the coast from south to north.

Now the strength... Jeanne has gotten better organized today and is poised to strengthen a bit. There is a chance that it will landfall as a category 3 storm. I already think it will be stronger than Frances at landfall, I'm just not sure how much so. NHC Forecaster Stacy Stewart mentions the fact that the sea surfance tempatures are 5 degrees cooler on the eastern side of the storm's eye than on the west edge of the eye as measured by the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. This is fairly significant as the water on the eastern edge has been upwelled from cooler, deeper waters by it meandering in that position previously. It has a greater chance to strengthen as it moves westward.

The track is dependant on a high off the Chesapeake and what happens to the ridge around it. The position of the ridge tomorrow is critical in determining how far west Jeanne will get.

Watches now are up north of that to Altamaha in Georgia. So a good section of coastal area may see hurricane force winds the next few days.

More to come shortly.

Event Related Links

You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
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Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
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Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
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DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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