MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico
Fri Oct 08 2004 08:54 PM
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The fourteenth tropical depression has skipped striaght to Tropical Storm Matthew has formed now in the western Gulf of mexico after a few week break following Jeanne and Lisa.
This is the 13th tropical storm, however, and it's moving eastward right now, expected to move slightly more northeastward in a few days.
The current forecast track has it entering land near Panama City Beach, FL in the Florida Panhandle. This could change however. You folks don't need this after Ivan, so I really hope it changes. And likely it will, the confidence in that track is very very low.
The good news however, is that there is a good deal of shear in the gulf, and a baroclinic low trying to form. If matthew tries to move north too soon, that will tear it up. However if it makes its way more eastward it will have a little bit more time to strengthen. But I think conditions in the Gulf right now are likely to keep it just a tropical storm.
No watches or warnings are up currently.
Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Matthew Models -- This image animated over time
Matthew Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Matthew Plots from Weather Underground
Matthew Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Matthew Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tallahassee
Mobile, AL
Tampa Bay
New Orleans
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Mount st. Helens Volcanocam animation
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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