The fourteenth tropical depression has skipped striaght to Tropical Storm Matthew has formed now in the western Gulf of mexico after a few week break following Jeanne and Lisa.
This is the 13th tropical storm, however, and it's moving eastward right now, expected to move slightly more northeastward in a few days.
The current forecast track has it entering land near Panama City Beach, FL in the Florida Panhandle. This could change however. You folks don't need this after Ivan, so I really hope it changes. And likely it will, the confidence in that track is very very low.
The good news however, is that there is a good deal of shear in the gulf, and a baroclinic low trying to form. If matthew tries to move north too soon, that will tear it up. However if it makes its way more eastward it will have a little bit more time to strengthen. But I think conditions in the Gulf right now are likely to keep it just a tropical storm.
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Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico
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