MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Katrina Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South
Tue Aug 23 2005 02:44 PM
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8:30AM
From a special tropical Update, TD#12 is now Tropical Storm Katrina. The 11AM update will reflect this.
(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
6:45AM
TD#12 has remained a depression overnight, although there are some signs of strengthening in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Thankfully chances remain highest for it to get no stronger than a Tropical Storm as it approaches Florida. However, there ermains the possibility for slight strenthening and hurricane watches may go up this afternoon for parts as well. Because of uncertainties in the track and intensity of the system, folks along the east coast of Florida will want to watch for any changes in the forecast during the next day or so.
This is due to the dry air near it, and a few other upper level conditions that would slow down strengthening. However, we'll still want to watch it because of the uncertainty with intensity forecasting and the fact the negative conditions will lessen as time goes on. In fact, it's starting to look better organized right now.
The forecast track hasn't changed at all, but there is still a lot of error in that, especially if TD#12 sllows down more. The potential for it to stall over the area exists as well. Some models, like the nogaps, trend it westward, others keep it slower, basically drifting through the bahamas and eventualy onshore, moving at a snails pace.
Areas in the cone will want to keep an eye on it as well. It's important to note there is no real reason to doubt the current NHC track, it is the most likely scenario.
11:00PM
Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Keys northward to Vero Beach.
See Clark Evans' Blog Entry below & Ed Dunham's post in the Storm Forum for much more detailed discussion.
5:00PM
The forecast track, while highly uncertain, is not as uncertain as the intensity track. Thus the mention of a possibility for hurricane watches tonight by the Hurricane Center. In the discussion, the forecast intensity was mentioned as being under the SHIPS model. Going with SHIPS would bring a minimal hurricane into South Florida.
However, how strong TD#12 eventually gets is based upon how soon the center of the storm gets well defined and begins to wrap around. If it happens in less than 24 hours, the likelyhood of hurricane strength is much higher. The conditions around it and the water temps support strengthening, even rapid strengthening, assuming TD#12 can organize fast enough. Many of the factors to keep it down, include a upper level low near it and a bit of dry air. However, I think it's fair to expect a strong Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane approaching. But the error in that could be very large.
Folks will want to keep watching this system closely. I expect it to become Katrina later tonight. I'd lean toward Tropical storm watches issued tonight for South Florida over Hurricane watches, at this time. Persistance overnight and seeing how the storm behaves over the next 24 hours is key.
The future track seems fairly solid, but the potential error is large. There is potential for TD#12 to slow up or turn more northward as well. The more likely right now is for it to head through South Florida near Palm Beach or Broward, and move westward out through Lee County.
4:30PM
Watches warnings up for Bahamas, and Tropical Storm or possibly Hurricane Watches may go up for South Florida later tonight .
Original Update
Tropical Depression #12 has formed in the Bahamas, more to come soon.
South Florida will want to watch this one, and the rest of Florida will need to keep an eye on it. Most likely it will be a rain event for the region, but this is uncertain, the atmosphere has potential for strengthening.
More around 5PM.
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Katrina
 
Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Bahamas Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
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