Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City

11:00AM
Katrina is now a 60mph tropical storm, with the potential to intensify into a minimal hurricane over the next few hours before it makes landfall in southern Florida near midnight tonight. A recent reconnaisance report suggests that the pressure with the storm is lower -- now 990mb -- with flight level winds of 60kt on the S side and 55kt on the N side of the storm. They'll be providing reports throughout the day, so stay tuned for the latest.

6:30AM
There is some good news this morning regarding Katrina's intensity, as far as getting beyond much more than a category one hurricane. However, this still leaves south Florida with an approaching storm.

(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)

Katrina has not shaken the dry air intrusion like it appeared it might last night, keeping the storm a Tropical Storm, and reducing the chance for rapid strengthening a great deal. It looks like the forecast will hold as a minimal Category 1 hurricane at this time. It still has the chance to develop during the day. Mainly due to radar presentation

The track looks good, although the National Hurricane Center admits the error for direct landfall could be anywhere from slightly north of the current track all the way to the Keys. Some features may want to bend the system back south a bit, while others would trend it more north. This is important since the storm is forecast to slow forward movement during the day. The entire warning area still needs to prepare for the system.

More to come during the day...

Report conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link(Registration not required):p/url]
Original Update
Katrina has strengthened some tonight, and is moving more west northwest tonight.
It is expected to slow down and strengthen some more.

Hurricane Warnings are now up from Vero Beach to Florida City, including Lake Okeechobee.

Folks in the warning areas will need to prepare for the storm as soon as possible. I'd prepare for a Category 2 storm, even if it doesn't make it that high. The uncertainty with intensity is high enough to cause concern. Especially in Broward and Palm Beach counties. If you are in the warning areas, listen to local media and governmental agencies.

The current forecast track seems good, it did make the westerly turn earlier as expected, after elongating a bit and finding a real center. It's currently moving westward toward Florida, and the forward speed is expected to slow.

If the current National Hurricane Center forecast verfies it will place a 90MPH hurricane near Broward County Friday morning.

Convection around the center is high, and conditions are becoming more favorible for strengthening.

Other factors for strengthening include the relatively small core of the storm, and the slow movement across south Florida will put up a potential for floods as well.

Event Related Links
General Links

Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link (Registration not required):p/url]

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emergency Management/County info
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Bahamas Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Invest 97L

NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L

Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:42 AM)

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