T.S. Rita Forms East of the Bahamas

7:45PM Sun. Update
Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rita, now with sustained winds of 40mph. While it is still broad and not very well organized, further strengthening is likely over the days to come as it heads in the general direction of the Florida Straits. T.S. Philippe continues to strengthen east of the Lesser Antilles and should become a hurricane early on Monday but will likely remain out to sea in the short-term. Interests in Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the western Gulf should follow Rita, while interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and Bermuda should follow Philippe as they move in those general directions early next week.

11:30PM Sat. Update
Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed east of the Bahamas, the system is currently moving west and forecasted to be near the Florida Keys on Tuesday as a hurricane. The general trend is for it to continue to move toward the west. Any vier north or south would either make it miss the keys directly (but still be impacted) or possibily affect South Florida. Folks in the cone, along the southeast coast of Florida and especially the keys, will want to pay very close attention to Tropical Depression 18 over the next day or so.

The eastern Bahamas are under a Tropical Storm Warning, while the northwest Bahamas are under a Hurricane Watch.

Conditions are very favorable for strengthening over the next few days and the storm will likely be a hurricane as it approaches Florida. If it is named, it will be called Rita.

Likely watches will need to be raised for parts of Florida sometime tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Philippe has formed from Tropical Depression #17 but will most likely remain out at sea. Another wave in the far east Atlantic may have a chance to form in the next several days if it persists.

Original Update
Ophelia is east of the Northeastern United states and a weakening tropical storm tranforming into an extratropical system.

Tropical Depression Seventeen has formed east of the windward islands, this system most likely will be a fish spinner and head out to sea, but it may get close to the islands first, so those in that area will have to watch it until a definite northerly motion starts (it may not happen). Warnings or watches for the islands could be put up at the 11AM advisory.

The wave north of Puerto Rico is looking a little better organized today and may tranform into a depression in a few days as it moves into the Bahamas.
This is probably the one to watch the closest now as it could affect Florida or enter the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical system.

Chances for tropical development of the wave east of the Bahamas in two days.
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [---------*------------]

Outside of these, there isn't much in the Tropics right now.

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Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com

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Rita

Animated model plots of Rita

Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop

Philippe

Animated model plots of Philippe

Edited by Clark (Sun Sep 18 2005 08:02 PM)

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