Bahamas Tropical Wave and Tropical Depression Stan

5:30AM
Tropical Storm Stan was downgraded to Tropical Depression at 03Z (11PM EDT) last night. 2 AM EDT Trop. Wx Discussion indicating the remnants of Stan are moving SW over the Mexican Stae of Oaxaca (Wa-ha-ca). Remnants are forecast to move into the E. Pacific.
92L-Bahama's tropical wave, centered just N of Andros Island, Bahamas, or 26N/ 79W at 2 AM EDT.
At that time 'the broad area of low pressure did not appear to have a closed circulation...however it was producing Gale Force winds off the NE Coast of Florida.' "This system has the potential for tropical development over the next 24 to 36 hours".from the TWDiscussion.
Floridians and interests in and near the NE GOM should pay close attention to this wave. A mid-upper level Low exists in the NE GOM at this time and Dr Lyons, of the Weather Channel, said that conditions could bring the upper Low and the tropical wave together.

6:30PM
Hurricane Stan has made landfall along the southern gulf coast, west of the Yucatan in Mexico.

92L Continues to remain disorganized, but it has been sending windy storms our way in Central Florida. The chance for development remains very low. But it will send stormy and rainy conditions across Florida.

Original Update
Hurricane Stan has strengthened quite a bit, and its motion has been quicker than anticpated. It is heading for the southern coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. An unusual track for a hurricane, but still occurring none the less.

It has a chance to become a category 2 before landfall, as it has been developing very quickly overnight.
As it approaches land it will quickly run into the mountains in that part of Mexico and dissipate, causing a huge rain event. People in the coastal areas there must prepare quickly as Stan is a strengthening hurricane.

The wave over the Bahamas is moving gradually westward, and it may not develop before it reaches Florida. Much of the clouds and convection are east of the center, and it doesn't have all that much time to develop.
We'll be watching it however. It will likely be a rain event over central and south Florida, but there remains some question on if it will develop further.

Event Related Links
Mexican Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

TS Stan

Animated model plot of TS Stan

92L

Animated model plot of 92L

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 05 2005 05:37 AM)

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