Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane

7:55 PM Tuesday Update
Wilma's small core is spinning up rapidly, as we've seen with several storms this year. The pressure has fallen about 30mb from this morning--but 16mb in the last few hours. Currently at 954 and still plunging.. the winds should match it near category 3 status before daybreak. Strong possibility that Wilma will reach category 4 status tomorrow. Good news is that Wilma will be likely start encountering eyewall replacement cycles, and be vulnerable to shear and subsidence based on the storm profile. -HF

12:30PM Tuesday Update
Wilma is now the season's 12th hurricane, tying the record for most in a season with 1969.

Original Update
Wilma is now a Strong Tropical storm, nearly forming into the season's 12th hurricane. It will likely do so this morning.

A tropical storm warning is up for Honduras and the Cayman islands, and Hurricane watch is up in the Caymans as well.

Wilma has moved south and west over the day yesterday, and has now stopped moving entirely. Although I dislike using models on storms that are not moving mainly because of what occured in this area with Hurricane Mitch in 1998 , most suggest the storm to move north and west, and eventually make a sharp hook back to the east.

The far end now places Florida in the cone of uncertainty, and the current forecast track has landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

There is what I would call very little confidence in the current late track, and will likely change. Folks in the cone of uncertainty will need to watch this. Until Wilma makes a definitive move somewhere it's impossible to speculate on exactly where the storm may make landfall.

Wilma should increase into a major hurricane, it is forecast to do so, but at this time it looks like when the system is forecast to arrive in the gulf, shear conditions will pick up a great deal. This should weaken Wilma back to below major hurricane status. However this is still a hurricane and can cause big problems for those in the path.

It seems that the most prudent thing to do is Watch wimla for a definitive movement and prepare appropriately if needed.

Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Various Florida County Emergency Management Websites
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Wilma

Animated model plot of Wilma
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 07:57 PM)

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