Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula

Hurricane Wilma is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula, if the current motion were to hold, Cancun would get the worst of the system. However, the chance exists that it will move to the east and stay off, keeping the very worst effects away from the land. You can see it approach on radar here.

It has slowed as expected, putting the forecasted Florida affects into Monday. There is still an enormous amount of uncertainty, even in the short term (Ie will it or will it not make full landfall (absolute center crossing land) or not, and if the western eyewall just graze, or avoid the Yucatan altogether. Reading the National Hurricane Center's discussion explains this in more detail why.

This impacts how strong it will be when it arrives in Florida, if the storm does not make landfall or even grazes the Yucatan with the eyewall then it will be a stronger system when it approaches Florida.

Although the Timing has changed, the direction of the forecast hasn't changede all that much and still suggests Southwest Florida. This will be a long next few days. The Florida impact may not really begin to be known until the system clears the Yucatan.

Intensity wise, it has held as a strong category 4 storm, and it will probably weaken some or fluctuate up and down. Weakening is most likely since it appears that the western side of the system is getting some dry air entrained into it. When it reaches the gulf it will likely encounter shear (and depending on how much interaction with the Yucatan it has) could get down to a category 2 system. The safe bet is to prepare for a possible landfalling category 3 hurricane along the southwest coast of Florida early next week and hope it is weaker. Listen to local media and officials in your area for exact information.

Additionally there is a wave in the Eastern Caribbean (99L) that may develop over the next few days.

Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

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Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Wave 99L

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