Update 5:00 AM EDT 17 August 2008
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
1 AM EDT 17 August 2008 Update
Fay has become a bit better organized this evening, with a well-defined surface circulation traveling just north of due west along the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is somewhat elongated east-west given the interaction with the Cuban landmass, but as we near the diurnal convective maximum deep convection is starting to become organized over the surface circulation, perhaps signaling the beginning of an intensification trend. Heat content is very high and shear is very low, making inner core processes and landmass interaction the likely limiting factors upon a period of intensification.
Sunday, Fay is expected to continue along its general path paralleling the southern coast of Cuba as it nears the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a track that takes it along or near the west coast of the Florida peninsula early-mid week as a minimal hurricane. Needless to say, everyone in Florida needs to be watching this storm during the day Sunday and as we move into the workweek on Monday. We'll have further updates throughout the day Sunday.
5PM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Fay has weakened a bit, and looks a little ragged on satellite, but the forecast still takes it across Cuba to affect the West Coast of Florida, but all the areas in the cone below need to watch. Currently it is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane around 90MPH near Sarasota Tuesday. This could be off either way so everyone in the Cone needs to be watching the system closely, especially after it crosses Cuba.
 
From the 5PM 8/16 Discussion:
"When fay is over water... it appears that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening through 72 hours. Thus... the intensity will be controlled by land interaction and the resulting impacts on the storm structure.
All guidance continues to forecast strengthening... and the intensity forecast follows suit in bet agreement with the ships model. However... this is a low confidence intensity forecast. Fay could strengthen rapidly if it becomes well organized over water, such as while passing south of Cuba,, or over the straits of Florida, on the other hand... it might not strengthen much at all if land interaction prevents organization."
So the current intensity forecast is a compromise, hopefully the forecast is too strong. This is the part that probably causes the hurricane center the most grief with warning issuance.
Right now it is prudent to remain calm, and if you are along the coast, think about doing preparations tomorrow or Monday, and have supplies ready over the next couple fo days.
All watches and warnings for the Bahamas have been dropped.
11AM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Hurricane Watches up for Cuba, in Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spritius.
Tropical Storm Warnings, up for similar areas in Cuba,
Tropical Storm Watches are up for Jamaica
Nothing Watch/Warning Wise for Florida.
Tropical Storm fay is over water according to the latest NHC advisories, and will enter into Cuba soon. Most of the convection is to the East and South of the system.
The latest forecast track focuses in on the Western Coast of Florida, those along the entire Florida peninsula should keep a very close eye on Fay over the next few days, especially those on the West Coast. Pay attention to local media, officials, and more when it comes to your particular area.
Intensity wise, the Hurricane center has mentioned there is a low confidence, it all hinges on how much land (Cuba) disrupts the system. It could be weaker or stronger than the forecast indicates.
7AM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Fay continues to present a very difficult forecast, combine very positive conditions for strengthening, with the very negative conditions of land interactions, along with a very oblique angel of approach near Florida, and you have a situation that causes a very large cone.
Everyone in the cone should be paying attention to what Fay does, unfortunately this includes Eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, All of Florida, Georgia, and most of South Carolina coasts right now. Cuba will have to deal with this system as well, but Cuba and Hispaniola may also keep it from gaining too much strength, however, when it does move north of Cuba, conditions in that part of the Gulf/ocean may be conductive for restrengthening. It depends on how much the system gets disrupted while over land.
The Florida Keys, specifically the western keys, have the most to keep an eye on later (Tuesday midday). The west coast of Florida has the highest potential to be impacted right now. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track is likely the best bet for now, but DO NOT focus on the central part, any slight deviation could mean much bigger impacts for the Florida west coast, or up toward the panhandle or points westward. If the system remains intact after getting over land, it may cause watches/warnings over a huge chunk of the coast for the US. Model runs are fairly along the NHC's track, some bring it in to the Peninsula, others keep it in the Gulf up toward the central Gulf.
More to come as it is learned.
General Fay Related Links:
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Skeetobite Track Zoom of Fay
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
{{StormCarib}}
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
Main Update
Tropical Storm Fay continues westward across Hispaniola this early Saturday morning, bringing heavy rainfall to the very mountainous island. Given the impressive mid-level storm organization, Fay is holding its own over the island, leaving Cuba as the last major landmass hurdle before nearing the Florida Straits.
The potential for significant landmass interaction over the next couple of days makes any long-range forecast inherently tricky given that we do not have a good handle on how intense the storm will be once it gets to and leaves Cuba, yet alone the track that it will take across the island. Add in the inherent inability fo the computer models to handle island interaction very well plus the errors that grow in the forecasts as you move out in time and you get a recipe for potential forecast changes down the road.
That said, there is a growing consensus for Fay to emerge from Cuba and take a track paralleling the Florida peninsula. Whether that ends up being just east -- likely for an initially stronger, further north storm or deeper-than-anticipated east coast trough -- or somewhat west of the peninsula -- likely for an initially weaker, further south storm -- remains up in the air. The intensity forecast highly depends upon the degree of organization after Cuba as well as how close to Florida the storm travels thereafter. All other conditions appear favorable for intensification, however.
Everyone from Charleston, SC to New Orleans, LA needs to pay attention to this storm this weekend, particularly those in the entire state of Florida. The angle of approach makes precision key for gauging potential high impact regions, but it's a level of precision that we just do not have the skill to display. With such a wide range of evolutions still in the air, everyone should just keep an eye to the weather this weekend. By late Sunday, we'll have a pretty good idea where Fay is heading and with what sort of intensity.
The Forecast Lounge is available for long-range model discussion and 'shooting the breeze' about the storm.
Elsewhere, the former 93L is no longer a significant development threat given a strong upper low moving into its path just east of the Lesser Antilles. Further east, a well-defined tropical wave is embedded within the ITCZ southwest of the Cape Verde Islands but is showing no signs of development at this time. Discussion of these features may be found in the Storm Forum or Forecast Lounge.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 17 2008 08:40 AM)
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