MikeC
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Emily Reforms as Depression, Moving Out To Sea
Thu Aug 04 2011 06:46 AM
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4:45 PM EDT 6 August 2011 Update
Recon aircraft found enough of a center to classify the remnants of Emily as a tropical Depression, and it currently is moving north and is expected to begin moving northeast tonight. The center is located just to the west of little Abaco island. No watches or warnings have been put up, and the rain appears to be mostly in the Bahamas, and for the most part, stay away from the Florida Coastline.
This coming week the topic will likely be the wave exiting the African coastline, this has multiple model support for a long track storm, that isn't a sure bet to recurve at the moment.
11:45 AM EDT 6 August 2011 Update
The Remains of Emily have finally begun consolidating around a more dominant center area over the past 12-18 hours, and a definitive Low has formed just north of Andros Island - about 140 miles east-southeast of Miami, Fl.
At this time surface pressures do not yet seem to be falling much if at all in the area, but then the available buoys, ships, personal weather stations and the like are not even within a 50 mile radius of this guestimated center. The appearance on satellite and radar do suggest that a depression could be forming today.
An Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate this area this afternoon, and so we should have a clearer picture of what is going on at that time. Either way, given that the Remains of Emily have "jumped," and reformed cohesively a good clip to the northeast of where it was being tracked just yesterday, the odds of it affecting Florida directly have come down - and considering its present location it is no surprise that models now forecast whatever is out there to recurve out to sea. However, given the Low's very close proximity to the state, not to mention several islands and many boating interests, it is worth watching; it is also worth noting that less than a day's worth of deviation from those model's forecasts could easily take more inclement weather inland over south Florida.
-Ciel
4:45 PM EDT 4 August 2011 Update
The last official advisory on Emily has been issued, no more advisories will be issued on the system unless it regenerates, (not terribly likely, perhaps a 1 in 4 chance of happening). Still flooding rains are going on in Haiti now. We'll watch the remains of the system for another day.
The remains are forecast to spread toward the west northwest over eastern Cuba an enter the Bahamas, similar to earlier forecast tracks. If it were to regenerate, it probably wouldn't be until tomorrow night or Saturday.
2:45 PM EDT 4 August 2011 Update
Latest Best Track file from the National Weather Service now references Emily as a wave again, it looks very likely that Emily will be downgraded at 5PM.
2PM EDT 4 August 2011 Update
Emily's center of circulation has landed on Haiti, and the disruption in outflow was nearly immediate. Hispaniola has a good shot to weaken the system further, and possibly back to an open wave (below depression) status. This would be good news for Florida as it would bring more rain and less wind to the coast.
There is less than a 50/50 shot it can regain after it passes Hispaniola, it will still need to be watched to see how much of it remains.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Emily may be finally moving west northwest based on recon reports overnight, and although continually bursting with convection, the system has been affected by land, dry air, and some shear near Cuba keeping the northern side of the system relatively weak. However, the western side of the storm has gained more convection overnight, and the general core of the system is much better than yesterday.
Still the northern side of the system is bringing very large amounts of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic that will continue through most of today.
The current forecast track is basically unchanged, and the idea that not too much is known until the system gets out of the Caribbean is still there. There remains a small chance the system dissipates entirely before going further north, but it still seems unlikely.
The good news for Florida this morning is that the forecast models, with the NOAA jet data, has shifted to the east, lessening the chances for a Florida landfall a good bit. Odds do not favor a landfall along the east coast, but the chance still remains, if the move north has begun (which recon may verify later today) the chances lessen greatly. Odds favor the system stays offshore, and brings strong surf to the east Coast of Florida, but the system itself will likely move through the Bahamas as a Tropical Storm..
If for some reason the system stays on a more westerly course today, the possibility a tropical storm watch goes up for south Florida still exists, but appears unlikely at present since most of the tropical storm force winds would be on the eastern side. It would be late today or tomorrow for watches primarily because of the storm's current slow movement. Florida must continue to monitor it until a definitive northerly motion has begun, and the system exits the Caribbean. There is still an unusually large lack of clarity with this system.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
Long term Recording of Long Range Radar off Miami for Emily Remnants.
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{StormCarib}}
BoatUS
{{StormLinks|Emily|05|5|2011|2|Emily}}
Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 06 2011 04:51 PM)
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