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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida
      Mon Sep 13 2004 10:46 PM

9AM Update
Recon reports have the pressure up to 930mb this morning, meaning the storm has weakened a bit. Probably to low cat 4 / high 3 levels (Shear seems to be gaining). It's hard to say if this is a trend or not or a eyewall cycle that it will recover from. Monitoring the recon repors and satellite images will help there. The 11AM NHC advisory should be interesting. The pressure rise indicates it probably won't recover to Category 5 levels, at least not soon.

Also TD#11 is very likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Jeanne at 11.

Original Update

Still a category 5, Hurricane Ivan is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Watches are up from Morgan City, Louisiana to St. Marks in Florida, including New Orleans. The forecast track shifted a little west as well.


Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.



Image thanks to Skeetobite

The entire Watch area needs to prepare for a major hurricane.



More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop



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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 13 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Good Link to a Moored Bouy close to Ivans path cocoa Beach   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves Steve hirschb.   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Jean as fish? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Ready in Mobile HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida 103177   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida anon   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida anon   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:28 PM
. * * NEW THREAD!!! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida USFTampa   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Updated maps - NHC Advisory 47 SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida KornR   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida rule   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Repost dani   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM
. * * Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steveunplugged   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Terra   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Good Luck! Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Hunkering Down tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Ronn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA saints63213   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 AM
. * * Hey Mike RedingtonBeachGuy   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike AdmittedHacker   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike Nobody important   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike JackLove   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Hey Mike tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Tallahassee   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA JackLove   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:47 AM
. * * Recon dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Novice   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA MrSpock   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM
. * * I'm Confused! SoonerShawn   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA scottsvb   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Frank P   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA clyde w.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM
. * * Watch/warning width BeachBum   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves kelcot   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Seele   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BillD   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge and Waves BabyCat   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA k___g   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA USFTampa   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA meto   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM
. * * storm surge BabyCat   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Recon Eye Fix danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM
. * * OOZ GFS... wxman007   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... chuck325   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 AM
. * * Re:Educated Guess Unlucky   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 AM
. * * Re:Educated Guess FunkyLamb   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:06 AM
. * * Gulf Wave Heights Londovir   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Wave Heights carolt_melbourne   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM
. * * Musings at 1:45AM Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM GuppieGrouper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM storm 1   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Center danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM chinook   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Musings at 1:45AM MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re:1000z Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:20 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS...Upon Further Inspection... wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:08 AM
. * * 00z NOGAPS wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:14 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:54 AM
. * * would you? waatcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 AM
. * * Re: would you? ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: would you? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: would you? waatcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM
. * * Re: would you? danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:30 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS USFTampa   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Ronn   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS STORM CHASER   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Turns, Twists & Tempers Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Turns, Twists & Tempers Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:33 AM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:34 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM
. * * TS Jeanne Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Strengthening prior to landfall??? jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM
. * * 11am update tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Spectrum24   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Tarpon   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS anonymous   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 AM
. * * TV out of New Orleans Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM
. * * Clark, MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:28 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:27 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:18 AM
. * * Re: 00z NOGAPS kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Miss Sound waves Frank P   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 AM
. * * Re: OOZ GFS... SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Steve   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Wxwatcher2   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA DroopGB31   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Keys are windy Kdubs   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Scotts Post... LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA Colleen A.   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA LI Phil   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Repost on new ETA kirdona   Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 PM

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