ExTD 10 will likely be reclassified as a new system if it develops. The navy is now referring to it as 99L instead of Former TD#10 which would imply renaming. Recon aircraft are heading out there this afternoon to check to see what the area is.
Folks along South Florida will want to pay extra attention to this over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Jose made landfall over Mexico a little north of Veracruz. This short lived storm will be another large rainmaker for Mexico.
Proximity to the US and other factors, as well as another persistent flare up have forced attention back to what was Tropical Depression 10.
Recon aircraft will likely head out this afternoon if it continues to persist today. The models are not a good indicator of what the system might do at this time, however there is a decent chance once again for this to reform.
Some call it to remain south of Florida, one ventures it more north, and yet another calls for slow erattic movement up the east coast of Florida a bit and back down. In other words, there is too much divergence to take any stock in those at the moment.
If so, it will be close enough to Florida to watch for strengthening. The area it is venturing toward may be allow it to develop. There is dry air near it, which brings enough of a check from having it strengthen too much, if it does at all. At least until it gets into the Gulf.
The chance for redevelopment of TD#10 by tomorrow night:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
Beyond that, the waves off Africa haven't looked as impressive as they were a few days ago, but the core convection has persisted, so we may eventually have to watch that as well, although out to sea is the most likely ultimate track for that.
It has broken away and spans a fairly large area still. It does have the potential to develop several days down the road, but will most likely remain out to sea.
See Clark's blog entry below for more detailed discussion.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Animated model plots of T.S. Jose
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
Visible Floater Satellite of 99L
Visible Satellite Floater of 99L With storm track overlays
Animated model plots of 99L
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Edited by SkeetoBite (Tue Aug 23 2005 01:17 PM)