8:45AM Update Ophelia is still stationary, looking rather poor on satellite at the moment, but holding its own for now. It's still set for a glancing blow or perhaps more of a hit on the Eastern coast of Carolina, and there still remains a pretty good chance it will go out to sea.
If it makes landfall it will be at category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm strength.
More to come as needed.
7:30AM Update The forecast track for Ophelia has changed again, as well as intensity forecasts, for the better mostly. As this increases the chances for Ophelia to remain out to sea. The forecast track, however, still takes it over the outer banks, but the general trend has been northward over time. With slow moving systems, persistant trends are vital.
This means South Carolia is less likely to see a direct impact, North Carolina more likely (on the outer banks only, and chances are improving for an out to sea scenario (Which I still lean toward - mostly because of climatology and the elongation to the east shown on water vapor, however there is still plenty to keep the system more where it is so don't take that as gospel right now.).
Intensity wise, Ophelia has been taking shear and upwelling caused by the general slow motion of the system, and there just isn't anything around to make that change over the next few days. It may weaken, fluctuate, but I don't expect to see it gain strength.
Beyond Ophelia, it's suprisingly quiet in the Atlantic, a few disturbed areas, but nothing really to write about at the moment. If Ophelia were gone now it would be a great day in the Tropics.
Original Update Hurricane Ophelia has stalled once again, this time the forecast track is set for North Carolina, showing how uncertain the track has been for the past few days.
There still are plenty of uncertanties with the current lack of motion, all areas in the cone will need to watch the system.
Hurricane watches are still up from the Savannah River to Cape Lookout in North Carolina.
Strength wise, Ophelia has managed to stay just over hurricane strength, but shear has kept it from growing stronger.
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