Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions (13)
Mid October After Milton: Nadine and Oscar
Posted: 04:02 AM 11 October 2024 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:56 PM 20-Oct EDT
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
Quote:
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba Provence of Camaguey
9:30AM EDT 19 October 2024 Update
Potential Tropical Cyclone FIFTEEN is now Tropical Storm Nadine just offshore of Belize, and this morning, Invest 94L has become Tropical Storm Oscar, just east of the Turks and Caicos.
Ciel
9:30PM EDT 18 October 2024 Update
FIFTEEN is forecast to become Nadine prior to making landfall along or near Belize this weekend, and we do have a forecast lounge up on this system: Nadine Forecast Lounge
Ciel
4:30PM EDT 18 October 2024 Update
Invest 95L in the northwest Caribbean is now PTC FIFTEEN and NHC Advisories are being issued. Those with interests in Central America and the Yucatan may want to begin paying close attention as a potentially flood-producing tropical cyclone is likely this weekend.
Ciel
6:15PM EDT 13 October 2024 Update
Invest 94L in the eastern Tropical Atlantic could become a concern later this week for portions of the Antilles, and we have started a Forecast Lounge on it Oscar Forecast Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
The last advisories on Milton have been issued and beyond Milton, Leslie is still churning, and invest 94L is also potentially the next system in the eastern Atlantic that may make it all the way to the Caribbean. This year has a lot of late activity in the MDR, which is fairly unusual for October, since typically we start looking closer in toward the Gulf and Western Caribbean for development this time of year.
Milton had significant impacts to Florida from tornadoes, to rain to surge and wind, but the rapid shear induced weakening prevented the truly catastrophic scale.
Nadine Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=15 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Nadine
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Nadine
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nadine
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nadine (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Nadine
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nadine
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nadine -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Oscar Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=16 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Oscar
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Oscar
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Oscar
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Oscar (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Oscar
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Oscar
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Oscar -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Tampa Area Media:
Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:
News Media (East Central Florida):
Television:
- WESH Channel 2 (NBC)
- WKMG Channel 6 (CBS)
- WFTV Channel 9 (ABC)
- Central Florida News 13 (BrightHouse Networks)
- WOFL Channel 35 (FOX)
Newspapers:
News Radio:
- 107.3 FM 580AM WDBO News/Talk Orlando - Recommended for East Central Florida
- 102.5 FM WFLA News/Talk Orlando
- 1150 WNDB Daytona
- WMMB (1240 AM) and WMMV (1350 AM) News/Talk Melbourne
Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
Milton Makes Landfall with Catastrophic Impacts
Posted: 10:07 AM 05 October 2024 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:57 PM 07-Oct EDT
Landfall has occurred near Siesta Key, Fl. NHC:
Quote:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA....
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west coast of Florida.
A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.
The next update will be at 900 PM EDT (0100 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 830 PM EDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 82.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
1:30PM EDT 9 October 2024 Update
Time has mostly run out to safely prepare for life-threatening weather that is already spreading inland across the state, and now is the time to hunker down, away from the water ("Run from the water!"), and protected from the wind and debris ("Hide from the wind!")
Quote:
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed later this evening.
Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.
Ciel
4:55PM EDT 8 October 2024 Update
Hurricane Milton is Category 5 once again. Earlier today the cyclone completed an eyewall replacement and has been reorganizing at a dizzying pace. There is a slight shift to the south with the 18z models, and indeed how it has been tracking overall, and the official NHC cone is nudged a touch in that direction. Everyone is reminded that the hurricane is not itself a point or a line.
To Milton's northeast, an area of frontal boundary and lower pressure that in many ways had possibly been adding some extra tug to the north, is in the process of consolidating off the east coast of Florida and is now a stout gale low that may be acquiring some subtropical and tropical characteristics
Ciel
5:00PM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
11:55AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
Milton is now Cat 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.
Ciel
9:15AM EDT 7 October 2024 Update
Milton continues to RI and recon has just found that the Major Hurricane is up to 150 MPH, still strengthening. There continues to be indications that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur today, and this would result in a process that makes Milton larger and an even greater storm surge producer on Florida.
Preps to protect life and property should be rushing to completion today.
Ciel
4:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Watches and Warnings will likely be issued for portions of Florida within the next 6-12 or so hours.
Milton is now forecast by NHC to peak at 145 MPH (mid-range Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale), but as noted in their discussion, this could be conservative, and Cat 5 is solidly on the table. In fact, some of our better hurricane models are now in the high-end Cat 5 range (what many might call "Cat 6").
Putting the wind threat aside for a moment, which is very high, it is forecast that Milton begins its extra-tropical transition phase prior to landfall, or at the very latest, prior to entering the east coast of Florida. This transitional period is expected to result in lowering the hurricane's top-line max wind speeds, but come at a cost to all of a wind field that spreads out, producing damage over an even greater area, as well as producing surge much further up and down the coasts than if the core held tightly.
Also, the threat of inland flooding will be substantial. The PRE event that has set up in advance of Milton's approach is already producing flooding, and this will be exacerbated during the landfall and passage of Milton.
Those living in or with interests in Florida from the Big Bend region all the way to the South Florida Keys are encouraged to begin taking preparations to protect life and property.
Ciel
1:45PM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
Recon has confirmed that Milton is now a hurricane and NHC is updating the new Advisory at this time.
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 6 October 2024 Update
NOAA Recon aircraft finds Milton stronger with 991mb pressure and 60mph winds. Forecast track remains mostly unchanged, models should tighten up a bit better later today (not until after the 12z runs) with recon data added in. Those in the Florida peninsula in the cone should make preparations today and tomorrow. Hurricane watches for some areas of Florida may be issued sometime tonight or tomorrow.
12:25PM CDT Update
TD 14 has become Tropical Storm Milton.
10:15AM Update
Advisories for TD#14 to begin at 11AM EDT.
Original Update
The area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is now up to a 90% chance to develop, and those along the west coast of Florida should watch it closely as the potential is developing for it to possibly a bad one for somewhere along the southwest or Western Central Florida coastline, and also impact the peninsula to the Atlantic. Including Tampa.
Models range from Naples to near Crystal River, with the angle coming from the west not as oblique as the ones from the West Caribbean, there may be a little more accuracy in track once advisories start to be issued, which could start later tonight or tomorrow depending on how much the system develops.
Timing is most likely for a Wednesday landfall with impacts being felt a day or two (or even Sunday) before in the form of very heavy rain, and more impacts toward later Tuesday surge and wind, with landfall likely daytime Wednesday (which could change)
The worst surge impacts at landfall will likely be at and just to the right (south) of the landfall point, on exit into the Atlantic that switches to the left (north) side with onshore winds.
MILTON FORECAST LOUNGE
Milton Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=14 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Milton
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Milton
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Milton
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Milton (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Milton
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Milton
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Milton -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Kirk Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Kirk
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Kirk
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Kirk
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Kirk (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Kirk
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Kirk
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Kirk -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Leslie Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Leslie
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Leslie
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Leslie
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Leslie
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Leslie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Leslie -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Tampa Area Media:
Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:
News Media (East Central Florida):
Television:
- WESH Channel 2 (NBC)
- WKMG Channel 6 (CBS)
- WFTV Channel 9 (ABC)
- Central Florida News 13 (BrightHouse Networks)
- WOFL Channel 35 (FOX)
Newspapers:
News Radio:
- 107.3 FM 580AM WDBO News/Talk Orlando - Recommended for East Central Florida
- 102.5 FM WFLA News/Talk Orlando
- 1150 WNDB Daytona
- WMMB (1240 AM) and WMMV (1350 AM) News/Talk Melbourne
Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
Active Phase of Atlantic Continues into October
Posted: 03:29 PM 01 October 2024 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 09:34 AM 03-Oct EDT
Recovery operations continue from Major Hurricane Helene, which is now the deadliest CONUS-landfalling tropical cyclone since Katrina. The tragic loss of life from Helene is mostly due to the all-too-often underappreciated inland flooding, and maybe finally a move to a more comprehensive TC Impacts Scale rather than merely a wind scale (Saffir Simpson) will start.
Unfortunately, this season is not yet over, with climatologically about a quarter of the activity remaining, and there is a risk that this year could even continue to be back-loaded if not also go into overtime, and we are now watching two named TCs (record-setting Major Hurricane Kirk, and Leslie, which is likely to become a strong hurricane as well), plus three additional Areas of Interest.
Closest to home is the feature we have been watching that is now in the western Gulf of Mexico and has increasing model support for significant development. While this system does not yet have an Invest tag, one could be assigned later today or sometime this weekend, and interests from eastern Mexico to the northern Gulf coast states and Florida may want to begin paying closer attention.
We do have a Forecast Lounge up on the Gulf Area of Interest: 92L Lounge
Original Update
After being in hibernation during the climo peak of the season, the Atlantic basin turned on a dime last month with the arrival of a very favorable MJO pulse, and the generally supportive to very supportive conditions for TC development persist as we start the month of October.
Most recently and closest to home, a gyre is apparent over Central America, helping lift up and enhance a wave that has just tracked into the Bay of Campeche on the Atlantic side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a preexisting trof that has come off northwestern South America, and also an area of low pressure (Invest 96E) on the Pacific side of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. All three of these disturbances are likely to influence development, if any, in the Western Atlantic (Gulf and Caribbean) over the next few days. There is also some potential for 96E to cross over into the Gulf.
Way out in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, recently-named Kirk is now a hurricane and forecast to become an ACE building Major far away from North America, and also a stout low behind Kirk, Invest 91L, is likely to become a TC any day now. 91L's future track is less certain and will be watched.
Kirk Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Kirk
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Kirk
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Kirk
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Kirk (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Kirk
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Kirk
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Kirk -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Leslie Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Leslie
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Leslie
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Leslie
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Leslie
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Leslie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Leslie -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 92L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=14 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 92L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Hurricane Helene Incoming
Posted: 01:17 PM 22 September 2024 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 03:21 PM 22-Sep EDT
Helene has become a Post-Tropical Cyclone, having merged with the large mid-latitude and frontal low pressure system over the Ohio valley. Now hybrid Helene is still producing catastrophic flooding as well as severe thunderstorms and damaging wind gusts. The death toll and devastation keeps rising. Helene will almost certainly be a name that gets retired.
Elsewhere, Invest 98L has become Tropical Storm Joyce, and Isaac has become a strong hurricane. Both of these should stay out at sea, but may be a threat down the road for the Azores and/or western Europe.
Our nearby attention turns back to the Caribbean and Gulf, where development is becoming increasingly possible again next week.
8:00AM EDT 27 September 2024 Update
Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry Florida last night, and now is moving inland and currently east of Atlanta, it will rapidly weaken but bring flooding rains to much of the southern Appalachian regions. All Warnings for Florida have been dropped. Helene's primary story will likely be storm surge flooding in Florida, but north of Florida the rain and wind impacts will likely be the focus.
Beyond Helene another area in the west Caribbean needs to be watched in the Gulf likely next week, but this one is more likely to affect areas west of Florida including Mexico. It has a 30% chance to develop over the next 7 day. Isaac is still churning in the open Atlantic and the other two areas, 98L, is likely to develop there as well (90%), but should remain out to sea. The last area in the East Atlantic only has a 20% chance to develop.
11:20PM EDT 26 September 2024 Update
Helene has made landfall as an exceptionally large and strong Cat 4 Major in the Florida Big Bend region at 11:10 PM EDT, 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry, Florida.
6:00PM EDT 26 September 2024 Update
Recon is just now getting back into the eye of Major Hurricane Helene and we will soon have another look under the hood. Last few passes showed a high-end Cat 3 intensifying at a quicker pace.
In the wise words of Stu Ostro,
2:30PM EDT 26 September 2024 Update
Recon has found Helene has strengthened into a Major Hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 3 and above), with maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH.
10:00AM EDT 26 September 2024 Update
Helene is now a very large and dangerous Cat 2 hurricane. The radius of maximum sustained winds is very large, and surge is likely to be monstrous with this one.
There are some indications that Helene may be bending a bit right of the center line, which would have some implications for who gets the worst. However, given the exceptional size of this hurricane, not getting the worst is not the same as not having substantial impacts.
5:00PM EDT 25 September 2024 Update
The official forecast now calls for Helene to become an exceptionally large Category 4 Major heading into landfall. This forecast if verified will be catastrophic. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today, and all in mandatory evacuation zones should have already left or be leaving now.
Quote:
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.
The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
Elsewhere, former Major Hurricane John in the East Pac has redeveloped after moving inland, and back out in the Atlantic we are monitoring two features very close to being tropical cyclones already (both Invests: 98L and 99L), as well as even two more Areas of Interest we are monitoring. It is as if the peak of hurricane season was just delayed by two weeks this year and now is fully in action.
10:45PM EDT 24 September 2024 Update
Helene continues strengthening tonight and may already be knocking on the door of Category 1, hurricane.
There are some indications that Helene may not reach the Category 5 status prior to landfall that many earlier model runs advertised, and normally this would be a (qualified) "good thing." However, in the case of Helene, this would still come with the less-than-ideal result of the likely still-major hurricane becoming very large. In fact, Helene's radii are forecast to be in the top 90th percentile of Majors at this latitude. Consequently, this means storm surge and wind will be of an order of magnitude or orders of magnitude greater, and be experienced over areas even well outside of the center and location of landfall.
The cyclone is presently under very light shear and over exceptionally warm waters, and this environment is expected to continue more or less unabated up through landfall. Rapid Intensification is likely.
Those in the Warning zones should be hurrying preparations to protect life and property to completion at this time.
Ciel
5PM EDT 24 September 2024 Update
Helene has formed and is now expected to come ashore in the Big Bend as a very powerful and potentially large Major, with a risk of catastrophic damage even well inland.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River
10AM EDT 24 September 2024 Update
Multiple recon missions into NINE this morning are finding the system's structure improving, though still a bit elongated and with convection displaced to the east by ongoing shear. But, it is very nearly a full tropical cyclone now and for all practical intents and purposes could already be named. It's a subjective call at this point and no one should be discounting it for lack of a name. "Helene" likely gets applied at any time now. The cyclone is on track to more likely than not become a Major Hurricane, and potentially a high-end one.
Ciel
7AM EDT 24 September 2024 Update
Hurricane Watches are up for about half of the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. TS Watch West of Indian Pass Tropical Storm Watches are up to the Bay/Walton line, TS Watch south of Englewood to Bonita Beach. Inland Tropical Storm watches exist for much of the rest of Central Florida.
It's still currently called Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE, and might not get the name (Helene) until tonight. After, NINE will likely rapidly strengthen tomorrow and Thursday right up until landfall, which the forecast is probably somewhere close to Steinhatchee in the Big Bend as a 115mph hurricane (Cat 3). It's possible the system could strengthen more than anticipated. Surge is likely around the West coast and much of that is also under a watch, with 5-8 ft currently forecast for parts of the Tampa area, and up to 15 ft along the Big Bend (The worst surge will likely be at the point and just right of landfall). The next full track updates come around 11AM, then 5PM. (And that cycle keeps going).
The system will be moving very quickly and also likely impact folks well inland in Georgia
8AM EDT 23 September 2024 Update
Watches and Warnings are likely to begin as soon as later this morning for the system we are watching in the NW Caribbean (97L), and may explicitly call for a strong if not major hurricane within the 5 day cone.
Ciel
3PM EDT 22 September 2024 Update
The Gyre we have been watching over Central America has spun out a developing disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean, which has now been Invest-tagged, 97L.
Vort-centric model runs, "hurricane models," are now being initiated on our newly-tagged Invest. In addition, a load of recon flights have also been scheduled.
Watches and Warnings could be coming as soon as tonight or Monday.
Original Update
Base map credit: Zoom.earth
The unexpected season of far fewer names than forecast, but with far higher a percentage of actual landfalls, looks set to continue in the coming days, with the potential if not likelihood of a strong tropical cyclone US impact.
A Central American Gyre, something that frequently forms in the early and latter parts of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, has persistent, strong model support for spinning up a named storm in the northwestern Carib and/or the Gulf as soon as early next week, and interests from the NW Carib into the all of the Gulf, but possibly most of all central to eastern Gulf, may want to begin paying much closer attention, as watches and warnings could be going up any day now.
We already have a Forecast Lounge up for this system where we are delving deeper: Helene Forecast Lounge
Elsewhere, Invest 94E in the East Pac may become a player in the evolution of our NW Carib/Gulf system, as it is set to track northeast and possibly get entrained, or even cross over land to the Atlantic side and maintain itself in some fashion. Farther out in the Atlantic, Invest 96L had been a borderline tropical cyclone for over a day and may be a candidate for post-season reanalysis. Former Tropical Storm Gordon is also still out there. Both of those are spinning fish. Long-range, a new wave rolling off western Africa has a chance to become a long track CV type system with plenty of time to track.
Helene Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Helene
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Helene
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Helene
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Helene (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Helene
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Helene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Helene -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Isaac Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Isaac
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Isaac
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaac
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 98L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 98L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
Tampa Area Media:
Florida Panhandle Media/Links
WJHG TV 7 (NBC) Panama City Beach, FL
WMBB TV 13 (ABC) Panama City Beach, FL / My Panhandle
WTWC-DT2 49 (Fox) Tallahassee, FL
Newspapers Panama City Beach News Herald
Radio (some)
News Talk 94.5 WFLA Panama City Beach
]https://wflafm.iheart.com/ 100.7 WFLA News Radio Tallahassee, FL]
Power Outage
The area in the West Caribbean now has a 70% chance to develop over the next 7 days and a 10% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. This area is likely to impact Florida in some form by the end of the week. With the Panhandle or Big bend the most likely, but since the system has not formed yet, and likely will not until Tuesday or Wednesday it could wind up shifting a bit east or west of there, including the peninsula. The ensemble spread of the models covers coastal Mississippi through all of Florida, and with a system that hasn't developed the track could be anywhere in that region. Intensity wise it's a mix from Tropical storm to Major hurricane depending on the model. The issue being we won't know for a few days, and impacts in Florida could be felt as soon as Thursday night, with rain and surge felt to the east of wherever landfall is made. The system hasn't organized enough to be tracked as an invest area yet so targeted hurricane models have yet to run on it.
In short, if you are along the west coast of Florida or Panhandle, pay attention to this system very closely, especially Tuesday when we may have more details on what type of impacts and where. Just be aware it could be fairly short notice before landfall.
The other two areas are a 20% area (96L) and a 40% area well east of land at this point.
2:40PM EDT 15 September 2024 Update
PTC EIGHT is no longer forecast by NHC to become a tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm-like conditions are still underway, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
Elsewhere, Gordon continues barely quali1fying as a Tropical Depression way out in the central Tropical Atlantic.
11PM CDT 15 September 2024 Update
Gordon barely hanging on as a weak Tropical Depression way out in the central Tropical Atlantic.
Closer to home, a hybrid that is expected to become a brief tropical storm is tracking towards the southeast CONUS, now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. The next name on the list this year is Helene.
Original Update
We are now technically just past peak, but also with still more than 50% of the hurricane activity to come, based on climatology. This is especially so for Florida, where hurricanes, including majors, often strike up through the end of October.
Now that formerly Cat 2 Francine is a 35 MPH inland TD undergoing extra-tropical transition, we are turning back attention to a few other features that have been worth watching.
First worth noting is Invest 94L now located just east of the Leewards. This vigorous area of low pressure continues firing deep convection today, despite being surrounded by some dryer air and during daylight, which tends to provide a less stable atmosphere to work with. Interests in the Leewards to Greater Antilles may want to watch this feature, as it is small and has been flying a bit under the radar so to speak.
Off the southeast coast, a non-tropical area of low pressure is trying to form that by later this weekend or early next week could acquire subtropical or even tropical characteristics.
Elsewhere, TD 7 way out in the eastern Atlantic is worth monitoring as it could become a long-track CV type system that if not sent fishing, could be of concern later next week.
Gordon Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gordon
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Gordon
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gordon
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Gordon
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gordon
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gordon -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Eight
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Eight
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Eight
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Eight (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Eight
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Eight
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Eight -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
Skeetobite's storm track maps]
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF Tropical Tidbits model page (GFS + more)
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams) , Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com, WXRisk, TropicalAtlantic, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
