Posted: 10:40 AM 02 November 2020 | 16 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:28 PM 11-Nov EDT
Eta is moving up just west of Tampa tonight, around 60mph winds, and some surge has been seen in Sarasota to Tampa, some tornadic action, but in general so far so good. So far 18,632 outages have been reported.
8:00AM EST Update 11 November 2020
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.
8:00AM EST Update 10 November 2020
Tropical Storm Eta is a little better organized this morning, now with 60mph winds. It is expected to stall out today then start moving back generally north all while bringing occasional heavy bands of rain across Florida off and on through the next several days. The forecast track has it slowly dying out as it moves north due to dry air and increasing shear. A weaker storm in this situation would likely be more like this cone, but if Eta strengthens more than expected this may shift back more to the northeast, so it's still worth watching especially since the latest radar and satellite suggest it may be drifting or reforming back a bit to the northeast .
Also Subtropical storm Theta has formed in the East Atlantic and is moving out to sea. There is also an area in the Caribbean with a 70% chance to develop.
11:15P EST Update 8 November 2020
Eta makes landfall in Lower Matecumbe Key, FL as a 65mph tropical storm. Tropical Storm Eta is moving over the Florida Keys now, and forecast to become a hurricane as it moves away from the Keys, it is forecast to meander in the Gulf for a few days before bending back toward Florida.
11:30AM EST Update 7 November 2020
Eta is once again a tropical storm, with winds of 50mph (Based on a special advisory issued on recon findings). Tropical Storm watches have been extended north along the Florida east
coast from Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line and on the west coast Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.. The watches the east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the Brevard/Volusia county line and the west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood and also Lake Okeechobee.
Tropical Storm Warnings replaced the watches in from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, and The Florida Keys.
WInd is slowly starting to pick up in Florida, but it's not directly related to Eta yet, but it is impacted by the fringes and outer rush in.
11PM EST Update 6 November 2020
Tropical Storm watches are now up for the coast of South Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee. Also included in this watch are the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.
The northwestern Bahamas area also under a Tropical Storm Watch, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.
Eta is expected to regain tropical storm strength overnight tonight, there remains a small chance that it may regain hurricane strength, but it's more likely to turn subtropical making a very ugly few days in Central and Southern Florida next week.
10PM EST Update 5 November 2020
Eta is back over the water and much weaker, and the forecast has it near the Keys Sunday evening, tropical storm watches could go up tomorrow night or Saturday for parts of that area. The forecast remains very difficult with strong trough interactions, but may become slightly more clear tomorrow.
Hurricane Eta is rapidly strengthening this morning and likely will hit Nicaragua as a category 4 or 5 hurricane, along with very slow movement, it is likely to be a catastrophic event for the Central American country, and neighboring Honduras as well.
Beyond this it or a spin off may re-emerge in the Caribbean so there may be more to come.
Eta Event Related Links
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Iota
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Iota -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Eta Forecast Lounge
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:
Naples Daily News
Tampa Area Media:
Late Season Activity Heating up Close to Home
Posted: 03:53 PM 23 October 2020 | 9 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:33 PM 28-Oct EDT
A new disturbance has just been Invest tagged in the eastern Caribbean and we have begun tracking 96L. Odds favor development by early next week as it comes closer to Central America.
We remain in an active late-season pattern close to home during this hyperactive year with echos of 2005 in it, and as much as we all would like to say things are over, it's not over until it's over.
4:30PM CDT 28 October 2020 Update
Zeta landfalls near Cocodrie, LA. The most recent recon pass suggests landfall as a Cat 2/3 borderline 110 MPH +/- hurricane. Storm surge risk has increased again, now 7-11 feet. A wave fetch has also been recorded at a stunning 50'.
2:30AM CDT 28 October 2020 Update
Zeta could be undergoing Rapid Intensification tonight. Recon is on the way, and we should know within a few hours just how much stronger the hurricane has already become. On satellite it has the appearance of a tropical cyclone that wants to Major.
Interests in southern and southeastern Louisiana should be rushing preparations to protect life and property to completion, as deadly storm surge and vicious wind is just hours away.
5:30AM EDT 26 October 2020 Update
Recon continues to find Zeta rapidly intensifying this late overnight/predawn morning, and a direct impact from a formidable hurricane on the northeastern Yucatan looks likely, especially with conditions favoring further intensification until landfall.
Before midweek, Zeta will probably recurve and head north or north-northeast ahead of an ejecting trough now over the southwest. This will act to accelerate Zeta's forward speed so that there shouldn't be much in the way of upwelling. While some weakening from traveling over the Yucatan may make it a little harder for Zeta to rapidly intensify back up before making landfall along the US gulf coast, models that have digested all the recent additional data suggest that the cyclone could pull it off, and locations from Louisiana to northwestern Florida may want to begin preparing for a strong hurricane.
4:30PM EDT 24 October 2020 Update
Recon has found just enough organization for Invest 95L to qualify as a TD, and NHC advisories are being issued. Interests in the north-northwest Caribbean and north-northeast Gulf of Mexico may want to begin paying close attention.
Conditions for development in the western Atlantic are going up this week and forecast to remain at least somewhat favorable in spots for a while. Given that we are in a record-setting hyperactive season that started early and may very well end late, and with several additional disturbances possible over the next few weeks, this region, much closer to home, deserves more attention than usual at this time of year.
Today, October 23rd, we are watching a vigorous disturbance in the Caribbean that has rapidly pulled itself together in just the past 18 hours, Invest 95L. This Low may become a Tropical Cyclone as soon as later today or tonight, and interests from Cuba to the Yucatan, S Florida, the Keys, and maybe the Bahamas or even the north central Gulf, may want to begin following closely.
Recon is scheduled to fly 95L tomorrow. It is possible that they will find a Tropical Storm at that time. The next Greek name on the list to be used is Zeta, and would tie 2005 for the most named storms at twenty-seven. 2005 also had an unnamed storm added post-season, for a total of 28 cyclones with sustained winds at or above 39 MPH.
Elsewhere, Hurricane Epsilon is now heading out to sea, but may become a very powerful post-tropical cyclone while approaching Europe next week.
Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links
Late October Activity
Posted: 09:14 PM 17 October 2020 | | Add Comment
An area of low pressure in the north central Caribbean has been Invest tagged 95L and is worth monitoring closely.
8AM EDT Update 19 October 2020
Tropical Depression 27 forms from 94L, the cone takes it near, but east of Bermuda, and is likely no threat to land beyond the island. Another area in the west Caribbean has a 20% chance to develop, but is also unlikely to do much.
There's a 90% chance area in the Central Atlantic (Invest 94L) that likely will develop as a subtropical depression or storm, and generally move away from land.
Another area in the west Caribbean has a 30% chance to develop, mostly mid to late this coming week. It's worth watching because of the area, but there is no solid indication that it will develop or where it may go. Other than those in the Caymans, and Cuba will want to watch it closely. Beyond that is into high speculation. That can be found in the forecast lounge.
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Invest 95L Event Related Links
Early October Activity
Posted: 11:50 AM 01 October 2020 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:55 PM 08-Oct EDT
Hurricane Delta is a Category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds in the Northwest Caribbean, expected to landfall in the Northeastern Yucatan (Cozumel and Cancun area) tomorrow morning.
In the Yucatan, the life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Beyond the impacts of the Yucatan it will have time to strengthen, but as it moves further into the Gulf increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed as it gets closer to land, but a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a very significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Likely moreso than Sally or Laura.
Those in the areas please listen to local media and officials.
6:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Recon has found a closed eye. Pressure is down to at least 983mb, and it is just a matter of time before winds catch up to the pressure and structure. As we head into the overnight hours, it is becoming possible that Delta could bomb and become a very dangerous and formidable Major hurricane even sooner rather than later.
Model discussion is now open in the Delta Forecast Lounge .
5:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Delta continues to rapidly strengthen. The forecast calling for Delta to become a Major once in the GOM may actually be behind the curve, as the forecast has been to this point.
This cyclone is in a very favorable environment for Rapid Intensification over the next day or two at least and as Gamma has continued to weaken, likely helping alter conditions in the Gulf, it remains to be seen what could detrimentally impact Delta prior to landfall in the southern US (location still uncertain, but models are generally focused on Louisiana to W Florida panhandle.
Interests in the Northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may want to begin preparing for the impact of what could become a fairly stout Major Hurricane.
3:00AM CDT 03 October 2020 Update
Gamma is intensifying tonight, with a recent blowup of very deep convection within the center of circulation. Recon is finding continual pressure drops, and winds are rising. In addition to being a substantial rain and flood threat for locations in the northwest Caribbean, Gamma very well may be making a mad dash to exceed wind and wave intensity forecasts.
Elsewhere, the wave behind Gamma may loop around it next week and could enter the Gulf. Behind that, even yet another approaching wave is up to bat, and is already looking active. Both of these are not yet Invest tagged, but could be over the weekend.
Two areas are being watched for early October, Invest 91L in the West Caribbean with a 70% chance to develop and another area east of the leeward islands with a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.
The impacts beyond the short term are unclear for both, but likely should be watched by the Yucatan, Gulf, and Caribbean islands.
Delta Event Related Links
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Delta
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Delta -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Delta Forecast Lounge
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:
- Lake Charles, LA Area Media and Information
American Press Newspaper Lake Charles
The Gulf and Bermuda
Posted: 02:24 PM 17 September 2020 | | Add Comment
Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far. Nonetheless, Beta is in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing some storm surge, as well as some areas of very heavy and flooding rains, to eastern Texas, and that is impactful.
We are getting into the time of year when we start to watch for more of these homegrown type systems, which both landfalling Beta and Sally before it have been, and in that vein, we are watching an area in the eastern Gulf to south of Florida that has some chance of development this week, currently too small for the global models to sniff out, but with NHC 20% odds that could be going up.
4:30PM GMT 18 September 2020 Update
We've gone Greek!
But it might not be the system you were expecting, as NHC has pulled the trigger on the hybrid tropical cyclone making its approach on Portugal we have been watching as one of the three systems that could be named before the week is up. This makes the Atlantic basin's second naming just today, with 98L becoming Wilfred this morning.
10:00AM CDT 18 September 2020 Update
Invest 98L in the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Wilfred, which means that TD22 if named later today would become the Alpha storm.
The latest thinking on TD22 is that it tracks north a little while longer, then hooks left toward the Texas coast, may go a bit inland, hug the coast, or stay just offshore, and begin moving northeast. Whatever it does, it will likely do at a gradual pace, and the closer it gets to land, the greater the threat of flooding. TWENTY-TWO may be a very sticky cyclone, and even if it never becomes a major hurricane, could be especially dangerous as a major flood-maker owing to its slow motion.
Elsewhere, Major Hurricane Teddy is heading northwest and is giving Bermuda sweats as it looks to be a close call. After that there is some question as to the odds of it heading into the Gulf of Maine or plowing into Nova Scotia.
Other features we are keeping an eye on is Invest Paulette in the far northern Atlantic, and yet another wave rolling off Africa.
Invest 99L is making landfall on Portugal, yes Portugal, as an unnamed hybrid Tropical Cyclone.
6:00PM CDT 17 September 2020 Update
Recon finds Invest 90L has become a Tropical Depression, the remarkable 22nd of this hyperactive season, and Special Advisories have been issued.
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy is now at least a 140 MPH Cat 4, and is expected to remain in a favorable environment for the next two days or so. Consequently, as Rapid Intensification is still underway, it is possible that Teddy could have 2020 become the record fifth season in a row with at least one Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin, breaking the record of four set just last year. Prior to this stretch, the prior record of back-to-back seasons seeing a Category Five in the ATL was during the 2003-04-05 stretch.
In a dizzying near déjà vu, we are closely tracking two systems, one named (Major Hurricane Teddy), and one still not yet a full-fledged TC (Invest 90L), that are forecast to impact both Bermuda and locations in the Gulf of Mexico, again, this week.
Closest to land, Invest 90L is very nearly a tropical cyclone today, and after some period of meandering about in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to turn toward the north, or northeast, and interests from Texas to western Florida may want to begin tracking it closely. Model support for strengthening is soft, but model support for the Invest that went on to become Sally was similarly light at this stage in that future cyclone's development as well.
On approach to a date with the British Overseas Territory of Bermuda is now Major Hurricane Teddy. Teddy is traveling through a favorable environment and has responded with more strengthening today, but could taper off a bit as it nears Bermuda late this weekend or very early next week, when it crosses over less warm SSTs left in the wake of Paulette, which went right over Bermuda in the predawn hours Monday, just three days ago.
In the far eastern Atlantic we are keeping an eye out on a wave, Invest 98L, that has about a 50/50 shot at development as it tracks generally west-northwest.
Elsewhere, a transitional non-tropical low with some tropical characteristics is approaching western Europe, with 30% NHC odds of becoming a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone before it makes landfall on or around Portugal late Friday. And a little bit east from there Europe is tracking Medicane Ianos, which could become one of the strongest Medicanes on record before it makes landfall on Greece later Friday or Saturday. Modeling suggests pressures getting down to about 980mb. Fitting to have a TC set to make landfall on Greece right about the time we have to turn to the Greek alphabet to begin naming our own. Very 2020.
Beta Event Related Links
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Beta
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Beta -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 90L Forecast Lounge
Teddy Event Related Links