MikeC
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Yesterday Tammy made landflal just north of Jacksonville, and is now inland in Georgia, moving away and become a rain event for parts of the southeast.
But to the southwest of Florida, another wave is still there, 93L remains disorgainized this morning and I don't believe it will develop into much, if anything. It will cause rain and some wind to Southwest Florida, and other parts of the peninsula over the next fews days. We'll be watching it
Out east of the Islands, the wave known as 94L has some chance to develop, but this one will most likely stay away from land.
![](http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL212005lts.gif)
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Tammy
![](http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL212005mltsth.gif)
Animated model plot of Tammy
93L Yucatan Area
![](http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL932005mltsth.gif)
94L
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Steve H1
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I dunno. Looks like convection is blooming south of the LLC of 93L. This needs to be watched for development, and I believe we will get vince of out of this, depending on when they name 94L , which actually could affect the islands. It is still moving WNW at a good clip. We'll see how this all plays out, and whether 94L misses the trough , as ridging may rde west north of this disturbance. Cheers!!
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SkeetoBite
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SST Test maps: (not automated yet)
SST data current as of 10/05/2005 5pm EST
![](http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/Demo/AL932005m_SST244.gif)
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Thunderbird12
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93L is similar to what Tammy was before it got its act together... a broad low-level circulation with convection mostly removed to the east. There is more convection closer to the center this morning, and if that continues it may develop into a system similar to Tammy at some point. It's also possible that a secondary circulation could form closer to the convection if it continues to bloom away from the current center.
That is a real beast of a convective blob just off the Mexican coast in the Pacific, probably the largest and coldest convective system I can remember in the tropics that has not been classified as a tropical cyclone. That may change soon.
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SMOKE
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NHC is leaning forward on 94L. Hoping that the TROF and 94L do meet.
--------------------
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lunkerhunter
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93L has some serious convection now.
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Bloodstar
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Quote:
93L has some serious convection now.
There's some serious cold cloud tops there, but it's still displaced about 50 - 100 miles from the surface low. Of course, lopsided systems aren't impossible or even unlikely. I'd say give it 6 - 12 hours, if the convection presists... the low pressure could tighten up and we might see something, but land is also going to be an interfering factor.
So, I'm not too worried yet.
As an aside, it figures I'd be driving up to Atlanta from Tampa this afternoon... rain rain rain urk
![](http://image5.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/graemlins/smile.gif)
-Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Ronn
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The convection is still displaced well SE of the circulation. On the latest satellite imagery, this convection is already being sheared to the east, with much of the cold cloud tops near the western tip of Cuba being in the form of blowoff. Unless this low reforms under the convection, significant development will likely not happen. There is just too much dry air and shear coming from the west. Perhaps we'll see a quick burst of development resulting in a weak hybrid/lopsided TD or TS shoot across FL, but certainly nothing more than that, and probably nothing at all, in my opinion.
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HanKFranK
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tammy: low level center over southeast alabama now, moving wsw. most of the mid-level component of the system moved north as it decoupled near the ga/fl border last night. been light/moderate rain here all morning, but not a big deal really. the low level vorticity may get dragged down to the panhandle coast, but like the discussion says it's very unlikely to redevelop.
93L: center over western cuba, moving slowly ene/ne. lopsided though it may be, a good low level westerly flow and sharp turn to a southerly flow is keeping this system viable at the surface, with a shear gradient over the top allowing for the lopsided convection to remain constant. wouldn't be surprised if it turns north over time and pivots up the east coast. the 'center' of the general broad low pressure is a 500mb low over the eastern gulf that all the rest of the features are turning around. some of the models are making this the primary feature, but i'm more of the opinion that 93L will be it, ready to baroclinically deepen as it moves up the east coast.
94L: looked better earlier this morning. there's a definite low and mid-level turning with this feature, but the deep convection that was near the center has puffed out and is now scattered on the arced bands to the north. the system is already sliding underneath the upper trough to the nw, so it should decelerate and come under greater shear. westward-building ridging and diffluence should keep it going, but as it sped along the last day or so it's eaten up a lot of its own comfort zone. based on overall organization i'd expect it to develop, but probably not very much. the disturbance should be persistent and end up moving nw over time. some of the wave energy may propagate west into the caribbean as well.
old TD 19/upper low conglomerate: bastardi thinks this will drill down and end up as a system sw of bermuda early next week. based on how it looks and what the models show, i'd say there's a good chance this will happen. keep an eye on it as it works westward over the next few days.
azores storm: take a glance at the deep layer low near the azores. it's spun up a great deal and may have a secluded warm core, even though it's over subpar waters for supporting a typical hurricane. i'd be very interested to see the phase analysis diagrams on it as it has a definite tropical appearance, complete with banding, concentrated deep convection, and a banding-type eye feature. just a maritime/azores threat, and i doubt the will pay any attention to it.
stan: a well defined low level circulation is visible off the coast of mexico now. will probably initiate it as a different system, even though it is arguably still stan. the pacific name, should it acquire one, would be pilar. not sure what this system will do in the long run... some modeling shows it coming back to the mexican coast further north.
HF 1733z06october
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Margie
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I compared the AOML Wind Swath model results to actual reported NWS readings from the advisory archive. Results posted in the 2005 Storm Forum. IMHO the model underestimated the windspeed considerably.
8pm -- the TPC home page looks strangely empty.
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Oct 06 2005 08:55 PM)
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Clark
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Cyclone phase diagrams on the Azores low:
GFS
(working out bugs in the display script on the Canadian, UKMET, and ...expect evolution to be similar in each)
Doesn't really show much of anything, though it does suggest the low-level structure of the storm may be trying to become a little bit more warm-core with time.
Upper trough over Central Atlantic is being fed by the upper-level heating due to the outflow from Tammy remnants (more appropriately, the outflow from the convective bursts that fire up underneath strong diffluence aloft)...as long as that keeps up, I don't expect to see it work its way down or for 94L to really get going. Might've been classifiable as a TD overnight, but the overall organization is on the decrease I think. Circulation center with 93L is on the northern edge of the convection now, whereas it had been displaced to the north, but the overall growth of this one probably won't be tropical. The whole mess -- the upper-low, Tammy's remnants, and 93L -- should get picked up and accelerated toward the NE over the next couple of days. Could be an interesting coastal storm...probably not, though.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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JYarsh
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Thank goodness its finally gonna rain.
You know, we got no rain in after August 14 except for .05 inches in mid-September. Hopefully the flooding won't be to much because the ground won't absorb much now.
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oil trader
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Is there anything to say about 94L?
The track is turning much more westerly than previous forecasts. Models now are pointing more to Caribbean Island or to SE US Coast.
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Rich B
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The Azores system has been given TNumbers of ST1.5/1.5 both at 0600z this morning and at 0600z yesterday. Still has evident banding on the IR imagary and could spin up but its window of oppurtunity will be getting smaller.
Tammy looks like it could actually make it to the Gulf, although unlikely to regenerate. Visible imagery would appear to show the remnant circulation approaching the Alabama coast so worth just keeping a eye on.
The disturbance over Cuba still seems to be suffering the effects of shear and remains very tilted. Still has potential, but nothing likely in the short term. Persistence will be the key with this one.
The central Atlantic wave / low also has potential, and is probably the most likely candidate for our 'V' storm if the Azores system holds off.
Regards
-------------------- Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Hunter
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PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 7 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2005
...THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...
ALL FLOOD WATCHES ALONG THE PATH OF TAMMY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ARE NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT
20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 29.65 INCHES OR 1004 MB.
{removed rainfall totals}
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY. HEAVIER RAINS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... BUT THESE
RAINS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY... BUT ARE THE RESULT OF DEEP
MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.2 NORTH...85.6 WEST...
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 29.65 INCHES OR
1004 MB.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
TRIMARCO/TERRY
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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abyrd
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Loc: apopka
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Here we go again: from the Melbourne forecast:
BOTH UKMET AND TO A LARGER DEGREE...GFS INDICATES VORT INTERACTION
BETWEEN APCHG ATLC TROPICAL WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR 50W) AND SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF OLD WAVE EAST OF STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK OVER THE BAHAMAS.
AM NOT LAYING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND WHEN DEVELOPMENT WL
OCCUR BUT HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING WELL WRT TO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF SURFACE GENESIS NEAR THE STATE THIS TROPICAL SEASON.
EXTENDED GUID KEEPS SURFACE TROPICAL LOW TRAPPED NEAR THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN A MOTION SEAWARD LATE IN TEH PERIOD.
I believe this is 94L we're talking about being trapped in the Bahamas midweek!
naw. that's whatever gets left after the tammy/93L mess gets out. note it says the stuff moves out to sea after that. its a very questionable bunch of model runs this is based on... very little consistency about the individual features. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Oct 06 2005 06:04 PM)
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HanKFranK
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well, here's how i'm interpreting what the is saying about current systems:
for tammy they just mentioned that the hpc has issued its last advisory. the low isn't well defined anymore and would have to throw a bunch of deep convection to be reclassified, as it's pivoting off the panhandle coast this evening. very little chance is what i reckon, and the assumes none.
93L they're more ambiguous on. their tone indicates that if it weren't sheared or being chased by a dry air surge and had organized convection, it would be a depression. it's lopsided like tammy was but with a more baroclinic sort of energy source. all the same it may develop into a tropical cyclone with one deep burst of convection and take off as the upper flow would start to steer it. expect it to track over southern florida and up the east coast.. whether as a tropical cyclone or as a half-formed low. if it becomes a tropical cyclone it would have a long deepening run up the coast, is the only caveat.
94L is getting into a strongly divergent/stronger shear zone. expect the persistent convection it's lacked to come into place now, but it may lose it all to shear just like that. were it to slow down it would have a chance at organization, but it would have to make very fine maneuvers between the killing shear and the swath that would support a sheared system.
TWO finally mentioned the deep-layer cyclone near 24/55. the surface part seems to be on the nw side of the overall low, and is in a moderately supportive environment. ahead is a very strong nw jet that is going to tear all the convection away if it runs into it. part of it will probably race ahead under the strong shear, and some should linger near the upper low . i'm not sure how this one plays out, as the upper trough has an opposite influence near the center.
basin shear has picked up a tad, so any system that manages to form will likely contend with some. the pattern is transitioning, though, so it ought to keep supporting new areas of disturbed weather for the time being.
HF 2237z06october
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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I have a question: What happens or doesn't happen between December 1st and June 1st that causes trop systems not to form in the atlantic? The water temp around here drops and up the eastern seaboard, but SST's in the caribbean and south atlantic near the equator stay about the same right? Why doesn't stuff get stirred up? I know wind currents are a lot different around here too, but anyway...just wondering.
You can PM me so the board doesn't get cluttered.
the westerly flow drops far to the south and the shifts southward with it... the conditions needed to support a tropical system generally can't be found in the off-months. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Oct 07 2005 12:55 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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well it looks like X-Tammy/ 1004mb low is back in the GOM.... hey its just 10-20 miles away from me...to the west... don't think will see much of anything out of it.... clouds are overcast and a little windy here....the ULL in the GOM does appear to be weaker up towards the coast... so i keep an eye here with the low.... water is warm... but there is dry air up in the atmosphere here.... FSL Soundings PFN..... here's a shortwave shot from the floater... can cleary see where the broad low is at.... Floater 2 - Shortwave IR
Also was tracking it with RSO-Visible Floater
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 06 2005 09:46 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
well it looks like X-Tammy/ 1004mb low is back in the GOM.... hey its just 10-20 miles away from me...to the west... don't think will see much of anything out of it.... clouds are overcast and a little windy here....the ULL in the GOM does appear to be weaker up towards the coast... so i keep an eye here with the low.... water is warm... but there is dry air up in the atmosphere here.... FSL Soundings PFN..... here's a shortwave shot from the floater... can cleary see where the broad low is at.... Floater 2 - Shortwave IR
From what I can tell... the remnants of Tammy went right over me or very close earlier today... and are pretty much due south of me right now. It didn't even rain here today, and there was no wind to speak of that I could tell. The thing looks pretty sad right now, but anything is possible I suppose.
Looking at the WV and IR4 loops, the GOM is just downright freakish right now - overlaying the weather symbols, the map shows FOUR low pressure systems in the GOM! The remnants of Tammy, 93L, a low north of 93L, and another one in the west. Never seen anything like it before.
Update: Well now I only see three lows... one off the Yucatan, 93L, one west of 93L... the map shows nothing associated with the remnant of Tammy, which is looking amazingly well organized for what is left of it.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Thu Oct 06 2005 09:52 PM)
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