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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Hurricane Ivan Paths
      #24703 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:50 AM

Please note the Gas Rationing Rumor for Florida that has been going on is FALSE. There is no gas rationing going on.

3PM
Windfield of Ivan and Jamaica: (Thanks Skeetobite)


2PM Update
Ivan's track has shifted a little westward at 11AM. It looks like it will hold category 4 strength as it nears Jamaica. More to come around 5.

(Note errors may be large on this graphic!)


Original Update
Hurricane Ivan is currently approaching Jamaica, and will be very close or over Jamaica by late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Some of the outer edges of Ivan are already being felt there.


(Thanks Skeetobite)

The good news is that it's looking a bit weaker than ysterday when it was a category 5 for part of the day. It will still be a major system when it gets to Jamaica, but not a category 5. Whatever it will be when it reaches Jamaica I hope for the best and I hope all there have prepared as best they could.



After Jamaica, it will cross over Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico briefly. Models are starting to consolidate and want to take the storm into the Western Florida coast, again at an angle that makes picking a particular town or location along the west coast very difficult. The timeline would be Monday night and Tuesday for a Florida landfall. There still is time for it to change, but right now I don't see anything to doubt the current National Hurricane Center track.

Another Florida hit would again open up even more chance for Flooding and more tree and damage on top of existing damage that we already have seen this year.

(Note forecasts at this range can have up to 200 mile errors!)


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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
Jamaican Weather Service
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
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NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

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AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Jamiewx
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MLB Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #24705 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:55 AM

Flooding is going to be a serious problem here in Florida as mentioned by this part of the Melbourne NWS Discussion this morning.

"MON-THU...TPC TRACK GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION 00Z GLOBAL SUITE...IS OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA...ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN...AFTER ABOUT H72...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BREACH IN THE DLM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIGHT AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ERN GOMEX. THE GFS/UKM/ECM AND GFS-BASED TROPICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PENINSULAR FLORIDA LANDFALL WITH THE CNDN GEM SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA...LEAVING THE NOGAPS AS SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS...SW/SOUTH FL IS PRETTY MUCH BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE...AND THUS THE CWA IS LOOKING AT PSBL EFFECTS FROM YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE.

AGAIN...EXACT TRACK/ INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH Ivan PASSING AS CLOSE TO THE AREA AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...CWA MAY BE LOOKING AT UNCHARTED TERRITORY AS FAR AS FLOODING EFFECTS ALONE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY WEAKENED STATE OF SO MANY TREES AROUND THE AREA...AND STRUCTURES WHICH ARE ALREADY SUFFERING ROOF AND OTHER DAMAGE WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY POTENTIAL WIND EFFECTS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT."


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: MikeC]
      #24706 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:00 AM

1100Z weather for Kingston, Jamaica. Wind-calm, light rain showers, Mostly cloudy, ceiling 2,200ft, cumulonimbus (Thunderstorms) in area. Pressure 1008mb.
MKJP 101100Z 00000KT 9999 -SHRA SCT022 BKN022CB 28/23 Q1008


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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TAMPA [Re: MikeC]
      #24707 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:01 AM

Here is an email I just received from Thomas:

It's looking more and more grim for us in the Tampa Bay area with a probable CAT 3-4 Hurricane Ivan strike. Unless we get a further west track then I'm forecasting and/or a weaker cyclone due to wind shear then I'm forecasting, the Tampa Bay area will be destroyed as we know it, with more damage then the Miami area suffered with CAT 5 Hurricane Andrew.

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Ivan Paths - Up close & personal [Re: MikeC]
      #24708 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:08 AM



Full size image available at Skeetobite.com


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Eric_in_SC
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: danielw]
      #24709 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:13 AM

Shortime lurker, first post.

Please let me apologize in advance if this is the wrong place to ask this question.

I live in Charleston, SC and was curious as to where I should evacuate to if necessary. I have only lived here a short time. I originally thought Asheville, NC was a good spot - until I saw the flooding they suffered from Frances. I certainly don't want to just throw my family in the car and start driving, but I'm at a loss as to where I should go if necessary.

Many thanks for any recommendations for "safe" locations.

Eric in SC


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Terra
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Eric_in_SC]
      #24710 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:23 AM

You can never make a blanket decision of where to evacuate if necessary. You really have to pay attention to where each particular storm is going and then go in the opposite direction. I was vacationing in Orlando and left as a result of Charley (the house we were staying in actually took a tree to the roof, I understand). I was amazed that some media was telling people to go south. Then, we ran into people at Disney that evacuated from Tampa. All of this made no sense to me. If you're going to evacuate, you need to go far enough away to account for any slights shifts in the track. Bottom line is you have to pay attention to the data, not just the media. Luckily, this storm will not be a problem for you.... and you may soon have some Florida visitors!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Eric_in_SC]
      #24711 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:28 AM

Don't really have any great ideas for you. I do know this from Frances and Charley: when people were told to evacuate, they were told not to go too far from home. I think they wanted people to be able to get back in as soon as humanly possible. It's still a ways off, and it could still go anywhere, although as time narrows down so does the window of where it would go. You can always make a reservation at a hotel and then cancel it within 24 hours if necessary. You certainly don't want to be 10-12 hours away; at least I know people here did not want to be.
That's my own little humble opinion, which is worth about .01!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HCW
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Colleen A.]
      #24712 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:31 AM

Sure does look like FL is in for anouther one . I will say prayers for yall that the models trend away from you guys at the last minute to save ya'll from heavy damage.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif

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BeachBum
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Eric_in_SC]
      #24713 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:33 AM

It will vary from storm to storm, but for most storms heading for Charleston from the Atlantic, I expect Columbia would be quite safe. Certainly, there no reason to head for the hills.

For Ivan and other storms going inland from the GOM, I would stay in Charleston.

Note: With all the uncertainty surrounding Frances, I went almost 500 miles to area between Panama City and Pensacola. Safe ground whould be closer to Charleston.

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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SOFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Paths - Up close & personal [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #24714 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:33 AM

Great map Skeeto. Are you going to update it with each advisory? Thanks for the info. It calmed my nerves a little since it put me in TS winds only.

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Ricreig
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Colleen A.]
      #24715 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:34 AM

Quote:

That's my own little humble opinion, which is worth about .01!


With inflation and price-gouging, it is worth more like $.04....but it remains a valuable opinion. I think in his case, flooding may be more of a problem. I'm sure you know that flooding often kills more people in a hurricane than does the wind. I suspect he won't feel too much wind but he needs to seek shelter somewhere other than his basement

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Terra]
      #24716 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:35 AM

Based on the forecast tracks Ivan may not give you a wind problem, but more of a rain/flood problem. If you decide you need to evacuate, you might ask around your neighborhood and/ or work. My first pick would be a large, 50-100,000 plus, city. They should have better drainage than smaller ones. High ground, motel/ hotel Not prone to flooding/ flash flooding. Not an easy pick, even this early in the game. Some of the board members (HankF) probably have better info. HF lives in the Aiken,SC area. I believe there are quite a few others from SC on here. Probably best to look after 6pm.
Good luck.


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Ricreig
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Re: Ivan Paths - Up close & personal [Re: SOFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #24717 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:36 AM

Quote:

Great map Skeeto. Are you going to update it with each advisory? Thanks for the info. It calmed my nerves a little since it put me in TS winds only.


Go check out http://skeetobite.com where he has all of the advisories for this and previous storms from this year. This time, his 'secret hide-out' lays exposed to the winds his graphics so accurately depict.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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jth
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Falling apart alla Frances??? [Re: MikeC]
      #24718 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:51 AM

Ivan seems to be coming apart at the seams like Frances did. I hope this continues because the track looks very bad for Tampa. Also appears to be heading over or just North of Jamaica on current track. Maybe the GFS was right all along and it could miss FL.

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andy1tom
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Re: Falling apart alla Frances??? [Re: jth]
      #24719 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:53 AM

twc still saying over or to the south but i agree with you

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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Ricreig]
      #24720 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:59 AM

I certainly didn't intend my post to mean that he shouldn't evacuate, as flooding is a serious problem. Heck, here in Tampa we got more flooding from Frances than we ever did with Charley, and I saw with my very own 2 eyes how fast that water rose near downtown Tampa and of course, the elderly people who had to evacuate in Hillsborough County because of a break in the wall and then again when the Peace River overflowed and flooded so many people. With all the rain we've had (including a good 3"+ last night, maybe more) you could throw a puffball at a tree and it would probably fall over. I was only answering how far he should go and I based that on what they told people here in Tampa with Charley and the 2.5million people with Frances.
Sorry for any misunderstanding.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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BillD
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Re: Falling apart alla Frances??? [Re: andy1tom]
      #24721 - Fri Sep 10 2004 09:05 AM

The big difference is that Frances fell apart just before it went over land and never had a chance to reintensify. Ivan has plenty of open ocean to get its act back together. I think its going right over the top of Jamaica. But hopefully Ivan will lose some strength and not regain it before it gets near Jamaica.

Bill


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Colleen A.
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Re: Falling apart alla Frances??? [Re: jth]
      #24722 - Fri Sep 10 2004 09:06 AM

Avila noted that in the 5am discussion and said it is probably undergoing another cycle of reformation. The 8am said it could reach CAT5 status before hitting Jamaica.

But I like your idea better. Especially since it would mean a weaker storm before/if it reaches central Florida.

Now this is a first: FNC just did a

"THIS IS A FOX NEWS HURRICANE ALERT"

Now I've seen everything...or I'm getting pretty darned close.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ricreig
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths [Re: Colleen A.]
      #24723 - Fri Sep 10 2004 09:07 AM

Quote:

Sorry for any misunderstanding.


Absolutely NO misunderstanding on this end. I was simply trying to tell you that you UNDERestimate the value of your opinion. I agreed that he probably should NOT evacuate unless (because of flooding) he lives in a low-flood prone area. Collleen, I am a great fan of yours, having watched your posts literally for years. 'Tis true, you aren't a meterologist, but you have great insight and give generally top-notch advice.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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