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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
      #30793 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:09 AM

11AM Update
Not too much has changed with the NHC track. Maybe slightly left... more into Central Florida, as a somewhat curved track.

Jeanne's structure is being affected by cold water being upwelled and the dry air around it. Which will keep intensity in check at least for the time being. As it moves out of the upwelled water area it will encounter higher water temperatures and have a chance to restrengthen. It's outflow and form has remained strong, so it can spin back up quicker than say Frances could when it fell apart. Jeanne and Frances are different storms, and I wouldn't base Jeanne on what Frances did do. How much time Jeanne stays over the warmer water will determine if the storm is a category 2 or 3 when it makes landfall. In either case, the trend will likely be strengthening at landfall.

There might be a time where the storm goes a bit more southward, because of the ridge. It will most assuredly drive the people staring at satellites looking for movement trends and wobbles crazy.

This could still change. The watches are still in effect, Hurricane Warnings are up now for the northern Bahama Islands.



More to come...

Original Update
Hurricane Watches are up in Florida from Florida City to St. Augustine.



Hurricane Jeanne, still with a bit of dry air, has weakened a tad, but still has a chance to restrengthen -- in fact the forecast has the storm as a category 3 storm when approaching the coast, stronger than Frances. The track however, has shifted east a bit, not with a very oblique landfall (if the current NHC track holds, which is not likely) along cape Canaveral into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. But some models push it further south and west while others keep it just offshore. There are no sure bets.

Folks in the watch area need to prepare, a quote from the Melbourne Hurricane Local statement says it best,
"For the residents of east central Florida... Please do not hesitate in putting up your guard This has been an exhausting hurricane season with many folks having already experienced considerable property damage and personal stress. However... Hurricane Jeanne poses a real and great thread to our communities. Be strong and take precaution. Help others in need. Stay Calm." Which is the better than I could have put it.



Hope for the best, there is still a chance for this to miss Florida, but I fear again Florida will be dealing with another storm, possibly the 3rd major storm landfall of the year.

Event Related Links

You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop

Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MikeC]
      #30799 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:28 AM

I guess I should start getting into hunker mode...sigh it's almost habit now...

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #30802 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:32 AM

Some folks bring out the barbecue grills and flags at 4th of July. Here in Florida we break out the hurricane shutters and jugs of water. Whoo!

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MikeC]
      #30803 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:32 AM

Quote:

The track however, has shifted east a bit, not with a very oblique landfall (if the current NHC track holds, which is not likely) along cape Canaveral into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. But some models push it further south and west while others keep it just offshore. There are no sure bets.




THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ELONGATE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP JEANNE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MISS THE FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS
DRIVES JEANNE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
RECURVATURE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JEANNE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL
AND GFS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN
THE FIRST 12 HR.
Quote:

Hope for the best, there is still a chance for this to miss Florida, but I fear again Florida will be dealing with another storm, possibly the 3rd major storm landfall of the year.


The above exerpt from the NHC discussion would support your warning to not hold our breath that we will be missed. The forecasts by others in this forum indicating a crossing of the state and out to the GOM look more and more possible. Scottvp predicts a coastal, just inland, route maybe slightly west of the now official track. Your warning that it could go anywhere is most appropriate. Keep up the good work, you are saving lives with this baard, you know that, don't you?

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ricreig]
      #30805 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:36 AM

Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range. As NHC points out, intensity is probably the most difficult aspect of these storms to forecast with great accuracy. Combine that with a storm expected to recurve to the north and east, and you have a real challenge. Based on current guidance, which has become increasingly consistent in exposing a northward weakness by early Sunday morning, I expect Jeanne to hug the east coast from Palm Beach northward.

As with most hurricanes scraping the coast, it is the coastal areas which have to be most prepared for some storm surge flooding (esp. forward right quadrant), but only briefly from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, then offshore. Jeanne (possibly reaching cat 3 strength) will most likely affect coastal areas with cat 2 winds (96-110 mph) initially, dropping to cat 1 (74-95 mph) north of Daytona Beach. Based on the current forecast, damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible up to 50 miles inland to the left of the actual storm track. Trees, mobile homes, and suspended objects are most susceptible to being damaged and causing injury and damage to nearby structures.

(I second the applause for Skeetobite's maps!)

“Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.”

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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Ocala
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Ocala, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MikeC]
      #30807 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:48 AM

Will this make a record - five named storms for one state in one season?

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ocala]
      #30808 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:50 AM

Quote:

Will this make a record - five named storms for one state in one season?




Technically speaking, can Florida claim Ivan? Landfall was actually in Alabama.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: RevUp]
      #30809 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:51 AM

Quote:

Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range.


Oh, I absolutely agree, without reservation I agree the tools are great and are a real help in making good forecasts.

My post(s) are meant to remind us that as good as they are, we shouldn't worship a particular tool, a particular model because it 'misses my house by the most so now I won't get the storm' and similar reasoning. It is like saying 'I just bought this neaty keen wrench, now my car will run perfectly forever.'

You appear to be quite literate with the use of the various tools and make accurate observations and seem to make good conclusions. Many of the 'lurkers' and members of this board do not, and can not. Not because of a lack of IQ, but because their education and experience lie in different areas. Often, they do NOT realize that models are only one tool, are often wrong and change in a heartbeat.

My goal in posting is to encourage them to question the "why?' and ask 'What else should I know?' when they see the models and forecasts. Your accurate observations and conclusions complement my and other posts and help us see the big picture more clearly. Keep doing it. It is important!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MissBecky]
      #30810 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:56 AM

Since Florida was hit so hard by Ivan, I think it would count. Maybe not landfall wise, but definitely in the overall scheme. Jeanne would be the official fourth and maybe that's a record. There were three hits in the 60's, was that the most?

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MissBecky]
      #30811 - Fri Sep 24 2004 08:57 AM

I think technically no..but we got some of the worst of it so how about 5 named storms to effect FL?

If that doesn't work let's not forget the season isn't over yet....(don't shoot the messenger)

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Heather]
      #30812 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:00 AM

Quote:

Since Florida was hit so hard by Ivan, I think it would count. Maybe not landfall wise, but definitely in the overall scheme. Jeanne would be the official fourth and maybe that's a record. There were three hits in the 60's, was that the most?


The NHC has a good archive and historical section easily available on the same page as their forecast menus (main page) and I bet the answer is in there. If not, UndergroundWeather should. Good question....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #30813 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:10 AM

Good Morning Everyone!

I have not been as diligent in watching this storm as I watched Frances and Ivan. School and life had to take front. But this morning I noticed something. With Frances and Ivan the storms went through an eye wall replacement every day almost. I have not heard a mention to Jeanne doing this, yet I noticed on the visable and WV that the eye was clearly seen for several frames and then suddenly it was gone. I am using the miniscule amount of knowledge I have gained reading here and am assuming that the eye is under clouds or it is in a replacement cycle. If it is doing an eye wall replacement, would this not indicate that this storm is a major?

Oh Oh, Brevard Emergency is on the tube. guess its orders to evacuate the barriers.

(taking a deep breath..thinking calming thoughts) How many more weeks of this???? think I could sleep through it?
Oh boy, there is Jeb baby.

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: DMFischer]
      #30814 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:18 AM

Quote:

........But this morning I noticed something. With Frances and Ivan the storms went through an eye wall replacement every day almost. I have not heard a mention to Jeanne doing this, yet I noticed on the visable and WV that the eye was clearly seen for several frames and then suddenly it was gone. I am using the miniscule amount of knowledge I have gained reading here and am assuming that the eye is under clouds or it is in a replacement cycle. If it is doing an eye wall replacement, would this not indicate that this storm is a major?




Had just noticed the same thing, then came back and read this post. Are we right?

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Another info source [Re: MikeC]
      #30815 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:19 AM

I think I got this link from this site during Charley. E-mails or cell phone info from Emergency E-mail

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ocala]
      #30816 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:23 AM

I1964 is the record year with 3.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Intresting enough, they already wrote up 2004:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Quote:

The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season officially started June 1, 2004, and will last until November 30, 2004. This is the period of the year that most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean.

The 2004 season has had numerous unusual occurrences. The first named storm of the season formed on August 1, giving the season the fifth-latest start since 1952. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley became the first storms to hit the same U.S. state (Florida) in a 24 hour period since 1906. Florida continued to be hit by hurricanes with Hurricane Frances, the first time two hurricanes have hit the same state since the 1995 season.

Other storms were individually unusual. Hurricane Alex was the strongest hurricane to intensify north of 38 degrees. Hurricane Ivan went the other direction, becoming the first major hurricane on record to form at around the 10 degree latitude. Ivan then left a trail of destruction stretching from the Windward Islands to Alabama. One storm, Tropical Storm Earl, died out, crossed over into the Pacific Ocean, regenerated and became Hurricane Frank in the eastern Pacific.

August 2004 was unusually active, with eight named storms forming during the month. In an average year, only three or four storms would be named in August. The formation of eight named storms in August breaks the old record of seven for the month, set in the 1933 and 1995 seasons. It also ties with September 2002 for the most Atlantic tropical storms to form in any month.




And it's not over yet.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: DMFischer]
      #30817 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:26 AM

Quote:

Good Morning Everyone!

I have not been as diligent in watching this storm as I watched Frances and Ivan. School and life had to take front. But this morning I noticed something. With Frances and Ivan the storms went through an eye wall replacement every day almost. I have not heard a mention to Jeanne doing this, yet I noticed on the visable and WV that the eye was clearly seen for several frames and then suddenly it was gone. I am using the miniscule amount of knowledge I have gained reading here and am assuming that the eye is under clouds or it is in a replacement cycle. If it is doing an eye wall replacement, would this not indicate that this storm is a major?

Oh Oh, Brevard Emergency is on the tube. guess its orders to evacuate the barriers.



...and speaking of the 'Tube'; I observed in the 8am official forecast discussion from the NHC the following:

We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
yom kippur...a solemn jewish Holiday. Your jewish neighbors in the
watch and warning areas observing yom kippur will not be listening
to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the hurricane
situation.

I hope that their religious beliefs allow them to watch hurricane and other life saving information on the 'tube' will either forgive them for watching or allow them to make an exception.

If not, you and I need to remind them as neighbors and friends...just in case.
(and I see whatever case translating program was used, it doesn't recognize the "j' in Jewish should be capitalized as a proper noun)

Edited by Ricreig (Fri Sep 24 2004 09:31 AM)


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ricreig]
      #30818 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:31 AM

Jewish people have a provision for emergency situations in their code of living as this would not be recreational radio listening.

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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Takingforever]
      #30819 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:32 AM

That is interesting. I think when it all said and done, 2004 will hold a lot of records as the season has done what it wants to. Who knows they may retire half the list of names. I guess when Mother Nature wants it back, she just comes and gets it...

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Ricreig]
      #30820 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:33 AM

Miami Dade county Mayor and the Jewish leader reminded the community to have radio etc on hand to keep an eye on the storm. So they do have a way to monitor wihtout breaking religous beliefs

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Roberta
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Takingforever]
      #30821 - Fri Sep 24 2004 09:40 AM

First of all, I want to thank the owners and monitors of this board, who have for years now "kept my feet on the ground" regarding approaching hurricanes. Their "best guesses" have helped me with every storm as to whether evacuate or not, and my family just TRULY appreciates the hard work you all put in!
I am in Vero Beach, and there is still quite a bit of debri around from Frances, and am worried about this stuff becoming missiles in the wind of Jeanne. We JUST got our power back on this past Saturday and I am still dealing with a horrendous kidney infection contracted in the aftermath of Frances and the unsanitary conditions we all had to deal with.
None of us had power most of the month, but FPL STILL sent "estimated bills" which were only about $10 less than our usual...sooooo, we here in our neighborhood are really dreading what now seems to "the inevitable" and will be praying for others in Jeanne's path. What is most important is our safety...and THANK you all here for the good advice, both on meterological AND survival questions!

Waiting Anxiously For Winter!!

Bless You All (and Skeeter for his beautiful graphics!)
Roberta in Vero Beach


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