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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 269 (Idalia) , Major: 269 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 269 (Idalia) Major: 269 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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recmod
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Re: Concerns [Re: danielw]
      #33775 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:36 AM

According to NRL, Matthew is now up to 45 mph, with a central pressure down 1mb to 1000mb.

--Lou


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Concerns [Re: recmod]
      #33776 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:45 AM

Well Polk County has a lot of trees down, a lot of debris waiting to be moved and some trees that are just waiting for a breeze to knock them over. So, it is possible that any prolonged rain or light continuous wind would inflict additional damage.

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RevUp
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Re: Concerns [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33779 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:02 AM

This panel from today's MRF with a low pressure center and high rainfall bullseye moving east toward central Florida has received a lot of attention today, I'm sure.
Jeff


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HumanCookie
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Re: Concerns [Re: RevUp]
      #33781 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:11 AM

NHC/TPC have a new Invest (96L)

25kts-1009mb-278N-600W


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Concerns [Re: HumanCookie]
      #33782 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:25 AM

That would be the Low they were watching off the Bermuda Coast. Have to check into that more.
The above mentioned Low is not reflected in Aviation WX Ctr's current analysis.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/?PHPSESSID=d3789dde7433be3840d32fe86ff58f78
The low can be seen here over the OK panhandle.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/WV/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

For the Floridians- these forecast maps show Matthew tracking into the mid LA coast.
Please use the TPC/NHC Advisories for formal info. This is just another Govt. source, and angle.

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 02:34 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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1030PM Tropical WX Outlook [Re: danielw]
      #33783 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:35 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE National Hurricane Center HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 02:37 AM)


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Guest
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Re: Concerns [Re: RevUp]
      #33784 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:41 AM

Inappropriate post removed.

Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 09 2004 04:36 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
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More Thomas [Re: Guest]
      #33785 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:53 AM

Here is what Thomas had to say when he was accused of calling Mathew a T.S. 5 hours before the NHC did:

I called T.S. Matthew T.S. Matthew because it met all of the agreed upon parameters to be called such a beast. I pay no mind to what the NHC/TPC says or thinks. It's called real weather forecasting, not parroting the official government line.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

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Prospero
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Re: More Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33788 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:19 AM



Well, guess it has been over a week since we had our last one. At least now I know next time we can photograph our spoiled food and FEMA will take of it. (Or so I heard.)


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danielwAdministrator
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11PM Advisory [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33789 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:23 AM

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Additional Information is available under "Current Storms" header.

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 03:25 AM)


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HCW
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Re: More Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33790 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:30 AM

Quote:

Here is what Thomas had to say when he was accused of calling Mathew a T.S. 5 hours before the NHC did:

I called T.S. Matthew T.S. Matthew because it met all of the agreed upon parameters to be called such a beast. I pay no mind to what the NHC/TPC says or thinks. It's called real weather forecasting, not parroting the official government line.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL




Yes Thomas really put me in my place . I didn't think asking a question would get that much attention .

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Terra
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: LI Phil]
      #33791 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:56 AM

Quote:

\
I know Ed doesn't like NHC bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!

This thing was a TD yesterday...




I was supposed to do some outdoorsy things this weekend and since it was supposed to rain, I looked at the LA doppler radar. Not looking promising, I looked at the GOM IR to see what was coming our way after the immediate rain. When I saw that area in the western Gulf this morning, it sure looked like something to me.... Glad I am not just seeing things....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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SirCane
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:( [Re: HCW]
      #33792 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:27 AM

grrrr. After having gone through Ivan and seeing how things are TRYING to get back to a little normalcy around here ---as the junk piles up. I just can't believe there's a TS with the track right back over the area! Good grief!!!! There are so many damaged roofs. NOT GOOD

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: :( [Re: SirCane]
      #33794 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:59 AM

Models are coming out.
Canadian model takes Matthew to a Houma, LA to Little Rock, AR path.

UKMET takes Matthew to Pensacola, across the FL peninsula, east of Daytona Beach, and then to offshore Cape Hatteras at 132hrs or Thursday morning at 12Z.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Terra]
      #33795 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:02 AM

Sorry, but I disagree. In my opinion, the tropical cyclone was a TD this morning, but not a TS - and certainly not yesterday when it was still poorly organized. One person's opinion (including mine) does not make it necessarily so. Measurement and analysis are the real tools that settle the question, not opinion.

As to TS Matthew, I'm still having trouble visualizing the northward leg of the forecast track - I just can't find any significant support for it. The storm may well continue on a general east northeast course for the next few days. If that happens, I'd look for landfall (as a 50 knot Tropical Storm) somewhere between the mouth of the Suwannee River and Cedar Key around 22Z Monday evening with exit near Palm Valley at 09Z on the 12th (at 40 knots). Since Matthew has hybrid characteristics, it would probably hold TS status across the northern Peninsula. Its a rather small system, so both the wind field and the rainfall should not be widespread. Earlier today the GFDL did bring it up to hurricane status, but I think that the westerly shear is too great for that much intensification to take place. At any rate is sure looks like yet another storm for Florida in 2004.
Cheers,
ED


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Steve
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33796 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:32 AM

Having a fun tropical night myself. Beers are being chugged and cigs are being smoked. The bulk of the worst weather tonight has been in Terrebonne Parish where, in some parts, they're on a 2-day total of 10"+. There was a several hour training band from the Gulf just west of Houma, and that's now pulled slightly east.

Ed,

As Joe B said at 11, if it tracks far enough south, it will remain in the entrance region into the jet (Quad 1). That's different from shear. Should that be the case, Matthew has a chance to go higher than 50 IMHO.

Landfall will be east of me, but I'm just hoping for another tropical day or so if possible.

Steve

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Storm Hunter
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recon on the way! [Re: Steve]
      #33797 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:41 AM

URNT11 KNHC 090516
97779 05164 70291 9000/ 30200 15036 0707/ /3144
RMK AF866 0314A MATTHEW OB 01


my recon guess, i think pressure may go down to around 997mb, winds 45kts....
movem.....ene 8kts
thinking a strong TS at landfall close to PCB area....late sunday night

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 09 2004 05:52 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steve]
      #33798 - Sat Oct 09 2004 05:56 AM

I have noticed the high thin cirrus is more prevalent on the western quads of Matthew. Sat imagery through 0400Z continues to show a central storm core with very high cloud tops and a near-complete ring of -75 to -80deg cloud top temperatures surrounding the core.

Recon is airborne should have some new data within the hour.


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mikeG
Unregistered




RECON? [Re: danielw]
      #33800 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:26 AM

URNT11 KNHC 090618
97779 06184 70292 8980/ 24400 15044 0909/ /8010
RMK AF866 0314A MATTHEW OB 04
LAST REPORT.

MUST OF HAD PROBLEM


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: RECON? [Re: mikeG]
      #33801 - Sat Oct 09 2004 06:37 AM

Yep, I was just telling Coop the same thing.
NDBC-buoy center down, sats down-for another hour.

The cirrus outflow has me concerned. Buoys aren't reflecting an increase in windspeeds, but the cirrus "fingers" on the W semicircle are very obvious. Where's the shear?


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