MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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TD3 Update - Monday, 8PM
Tropical Depression #3 in the southern Gulf of Mexico is showing signs of better organization. Although fighting southwesterly shear throughout most of Monday, the cyclone has weathered the storm (pardon the pun). At 05/00Z I estimate the position to be 23N 89W - not quite as far west or north as the official position. TD3 has slowed down a bit - probably more like 8mph rather than the earlier 13mph, and the motion, at least for the moment, seems to be due north rather than north northwest. Frankly, I'd expect a northerly or even north northeasterly motion - primarily because the expected westward extension of the mid-Atlantic ridge across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico has not materialized as previously advertised by many of the forecast models. Given the shear (although rather light) and the lack of any significant trend toward rising pressure across Florida, I think that a more northerly course can be anticipated. If the current reorganization continues, TD3 should become a TS on Tuesday. The amount of intensification is still a problem. The slower speed gives the cyclone a greater amount of time over warm water, but if light shear continues there might only be a limited increase in strength. Unless the Atlantic ridge suddenly springs to life and extends westward, we could see some adjustments of the forecast track a little to the right. Don't take that for the gospel - I never seem to do too well with Gulf systems. ED
8AM 4.July.2005
Tropical Depression Three is over the Yucatan now. And the official track has shifted a little to the right, giving more concern to the western central Gulf coastline. Intensity forecasts still keep it a Tropical Storm, but this will need to be watched over the week.
The area near the windward islands this morning is also a potential area to develop later this week. The longer range models insist that we watch this system.
The chance for development graph for the Windward system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*-------------]
Original Update
The Third Tropical depression of the year has formed in the far western Caribbean, it is about to move over the Yucatan peninsula and after that, enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The current focus is toward the Western Gulf Coast, and texas. Other areas east of Texas will want to keep tabs as well. Because of land interaction with the Yucatan, it is currently expected to be no stronger than a Tropical Storm.
We will be watching it.
This has spun up from the Southwestern Caribbean area that didn't look likely for development earlier in the week, but has now moved finally into an area more favorible for development. The Yucatan Peninsula will keep it in check.
Other activity is going up for this week so there may be more to watch this week. Like for example, in the Atlantic east of the Windward Caribbean islands.
For those in the US, have a good independence day holiday.
More to come later.
Event Related Links:
TD#3:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Depression #3
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of TD#3
TD#4:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Depression #4
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of TD#4
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well TD 3 is here, and its only 3rd July! The depression is quite poorly organised, with what looks like a possible new centre developing just to the west-southwest of the western tip of Cuba? Interaction with land will keep this in check for the time being, with model intensities ranging really quite markedly on this one. Certainly gonna be a threat to the western / central GOM.
Also of note is the increasingly well organised wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. The latest hints at further development of this system, which is further supported by the last few visible images. Will be interesting to see what daylight reveals about this one in the morning.
-------------------- Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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the watcher
Unregistered
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whats everyones thoughts on the forecast track so far............do you think it will dramatically change.
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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As of 5:00 pm EDT we officially have T.D. #3. It should go ashore the Yucatan Peninsula shortly and if it survives will threaten the Gulf Coast west of 95 deg. W this week. It should become T.S. Cindy by Tuesday 07/05/05.
The tropical wave approaching the Windward continues to get better organized and could become T.D. #4 soon. As a future tropical cyclone it could threaten the South Florida region in approximately 6-7 days.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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628 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005
..RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...
..TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
AT 630 PM CDT...2330Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL...
INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS.
SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1007 MB
AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
Sitting still... that most times is not good. Maybe a change of plans in the future?
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 03 2005 07:46 PM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
whats everyones thoughts on the forecast track so far............do you think it will dramatically change.
my bet, it turns northward and heads for the texas/louisiana border line..i guess we'll have to watch..i do have a feeling w'lll see "welcome to The Lonestar State Cindy"
Hey man, what about Florida?
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 03 2005 08:51 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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You forgot to add Mexico.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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Hmmm... TD #3... possibly to be Cindy. (I feel like we're getting one of the Brady Bunch... note to self- check list for other Bradys...)
But really, we don't want a TS or Hurricane. Not even one named Cindy. Just some rain please!
Actually on topic now - it seems like alot of the weather events predicted for Texas seem to go into Mexico or Louisiana... any idea when we'll get a better idea where pre-Cindy is heading? Tuesday maybe?
Stay safe y'all!
'shana in Austin
(off-topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 03 2005 11:50 PM)
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Interesting commentary from the TLH discussion. You may interpret however you like, but I think it is a great reminder to not focus on the skinny black line...
BIG NEWS THIS AFTN WAS THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE.
IT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND HAS
REMAINED NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS. IN A RECENT
UPDATE FROM THE THEY STATE THAT IT MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE IT MVS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. THE LONG RANGE PATH FOR THE STORM TAKES IT INTO THE
UPR TX COAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN
OVER OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD KEEP THE FLOW OVER THE
GULF FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF. BUT
AS WITH ANY STORM...ANY INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED
WITH THE LATEST UPDATES ISSUED FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER. FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS ON THIS STORM SEE HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
Discussion Link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEAFDTAE&version=0
Quick P.S. for frequent readers who saw my pre Bret posts...While I was happy to see my thoughts play out with the florida trough pulling out, and the Texas Upper Low building a ridge...I admit to eating crow on my low level projections of a system forming north of the Yucatan last week. Sorry for the bad call folks.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New Tropical Weather Discussion is out.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 (edited~danielw)
STRONG W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM E GUYANA TO 17N53W WITH A BROAD 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N57W. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED NOW.
BANDING-TYPE FEATURES ARE NOTED W OF THE LOW. CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 57W-64W...AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/040006.shtml?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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This Dan looks to be the the one to watch in the week ahead.Plenty of real estate to travel with warm SST's abounding.The peripheral edge of the high pressure system will determine it's course for the most part.The shear in the WCarib for the most part seems to weaking also.Looks like the season may have begun a little earlier than usual.
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the watcher
Unregistered
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if the storm is moving NW it will be taking a shorter pathe across the yucatan then anticipated.......as long as it keeps moving i dont think it will affect the storm much at all....
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 (edited~danielw)
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER INDICATED BY THE LAST RECON REPORT...
WHICH ALSO INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB -- A DROP OF 2 MB IN 2.5 HOURS. RADAR REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATED SIGNIFICANT BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF ONLY 25 KT..MAINLY TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS.
Entire Discussion at this link.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/040234.shtml
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 03 2005 10:59 PM)
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the watcher
Unregistered
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the discussion said that the storm could possibly take a sharp turn and move eastward once it got to the tx/la coast, but didnt say how long it would move east.. does anyone know if that was to happen how far east might it go.......could possibly run across the N. GOMEX coastline............i know its way to early to tell just wondering if anyone had thoghts itwas something new in the discussion that wasnt there before
thanx, w.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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TD#3 is not going to be a problem for Florida it that is what you are asking, However Florida problem is waiting in the wings as waves for now E. Carrib. These waves are header to Florida, as Wave, TD or TS, Cat 1 +.
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the watcher
Unregistered
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thanks, i live in panama city FL in the pnhandle but even the waves arent good our beches cant take many more storms before it dissapears... i also have been watching the T.wave in the atlantic and it looks like it might be trouble for the gulf states later in the week..it looks pretty ominous on the infared. i figure it might become a depression in the next day or so!
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dem05
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Since the Panhandle is now in the forecast cone. This statement below is a premature one. With the hard right turn called for, this should be watched in the northern half of the State. Not guaranteed to affect the state, but it is a possibility.
Link to updated Forecast graphic:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030130.shtml?5day
Quote:
TD#3 is not going to be a problem for Florida it that is what you are asking, However Florida problem is waiting in the wings as waves for now E. Carrib. These waves are header to Florida, as Wave, TD or TS, Cat 1 +.
Edited by dem05 (Sun Jul 03 2005 11:40 PM)
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the watcher
Unregistered
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oh. thanx for pointing that out i didnt even look at the 5 day forcast i guess if it keeps the trend of being on the right side of the track it might get pretty close and it would be over the water longer! i guess ill keep watching and waiting.. hopefully it wont make the turn, tx/la need the rain and we dont need a storm
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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I don't see the right turn till it hit landfall, reason for my statement before.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Since the Panhandle is now in the forecast cone. This statement below is a premature one. With the hard right turn called for, this should be watched in the northern half of the State. Not guaranteed to affect the state, but it is a possibility.
Link to updated Forecast graphic:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030130.shtml?5day
The "cone" that dem05 is refering to is the "Potential 4-5 day Track Area".
The "cone" has a very wide mileage error rate at 4-5 days.
...EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/040234.shtml?text
Text version of Strike Probablities for TD3 are also available on the link, on the left side of the page, or here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT3+shtml/
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