MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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11:45AM Update
ExTD 10 will likely be reclassified as a new system if it develops. The navy is now referring to it as 99L instead of Former TD#10 which would imply renaming. Recon aircraft are heading out there this afternoon to check to see what the area is.
Folks along South Florida will want to pay extra attention to this over the next few days.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Jose made landfall over Mexico a little north of Veracruz. This short lived storm will be another large rainmaker for Mexico.
Proximity to the US and other factors, as well as another persistent flare up have forced attention back to what was Tropical Depression 10.
Recon aircraft will likely head out this afternoon if it continues to persist today. The models are not a good indicator of what the system might do at this time, however there is a decent chance once again for this to reform.
Some call it to remain south of Florida, one ventures it more north, and yet another calls for slow erattic movement up the east coast of Florida a bit and back down. In other words, there is too much divergence to take any stock in those at the moment.
If so, it will be close enough to Florida to watch for strengthening. The area it is venturing toward may be allow it to develop. There is dry air near it, which brings enough of a check from having it strengthen too much, if it does at all. At least until it gets into the Gulf.
The chance for redevelopment of TD#10 by tomorrow night:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------------*---------]
Beyond that, the waves off Africa haven't looked as impressive as they were a few days ago, but the core convection has persisted, so we may eventually have to watch that as well, although out to sea is the most likely ultimate track for that.
It has broken away and spans a fairly large area still. It does have the potential to develop several days down the road, but will most likely remain out to sea.
See Clark's blog entry below for more detailed discussion.
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
T.S. Jose
Animated model plots of T.S. Jose
Mexican Radar
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
Invest 99L
Visible Floater Satellite of 99L
Visible Satellite Floater of 99L With storm track overlays
Animated model plots of 99L
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Edited by SkeetoBite (Tue Aug 23 2005 01:17 PM)
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pedro
Unregistered
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XTD10 is really starting to flare up a whole lot.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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I imagine the main reason the models are so inconsistent is because they aren't sure where the real center of the "wave" is and in this case location is everything. Question remains...where is the surface low? Where you start the models makes a big difference on where they end up. Can't wait to see what if anything recon finds. Nice blow up, begs attention.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Big flareup of convection this am with SE Bahamas Trop Wave. Hard to tell but it looks like a circulation just to the west of the big blob of TS off the NE coast of Cuba. A couple of this mornings model runs are really scary. The 00Z , whic has been forecasting a rapid deepening in the GOM once the system crosses S FL, creates a major hurricane in the eastern GOM and then tracks it north along the west coast of FL into the panhandle. Now the 00Z UKMET has jumped on board with a bombout in the eastern GOM too. The track seems to be getting better in focus with a closed circulation forming in the western bahamas drifting to the SE FL coast, across the southern tip of the peninsula and into the SE GOM. The 00Z supports this track. Yesterdays 18Z did also but the 00Z loses the system. All in all, gonna get real interesting the rest of this week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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Richie at work
Unregistered
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Just when everyone thought it was too quiet, a storm forms yesterday, possibly another today and yet another tomorrow. Here we go in to the heart of the season. Local t.v. showed viper system tracking the storm through the keys and into the gulf with very heavy rains especially in SW Florida.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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[moved from old thread]
Ok, is very late in getting their 5am up...given that it is almost 7am now...wonder what is going on? TWD from about 4.5 hours ago says there is a new wave off Africa. Yet another one to watch! Plus a wave over central America and another out in the Carribean...in addition to X-TD10 and 97L.
97L - Looking at IR:
97L Looks VERY good. It looks like it has consolidated down to a central spin, and appears to have a comma-shape with good circulation and banding to it. It has also shrunk in size, no longer the huge blob that it was, it is now a much smaller more defined system.
There hasn't been a Dvorak reading on it in about 5 hours, but what the satellite animation shows is it getting its act together in just the past 6 hours. I'd expect a decent classification soon. This might be why hasn't gotten their up - perhaps they are waiting on information about 97L?
Models are still inconistant on the strength and track of 97L, but they should become better once we see a TD out there. Whether it turns to sea or keeps westward is still unknown, but the models seem to think a turn to sea is likely.
I'm going to take a wild guess and say we might have a cyclone out there today just based on the IR sat.
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X-TD10:
Again, the IR presentation is very good this morning, though I'm not seeing rotation to the signature. Again the models are highly divergent on what exactly it will do, with some strengthening it and some ignoring it. Again, once (if) it makes a TD it should get better model guidance. This is still a wait-and-see system, though I expect we'll have a cyclone within a few days.
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Any met: why have the models for 97L on both PSU and FSU been all missing images? NOAA has to be running the models or they wouldn't be listed, but why isn't there any data on those websites?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Well, just posted their timestamped 5:30am. Someone forgot to upload it?
They aren't mentioning much about 97L other than it has organized better since their last update. Seems conservative given the Satellite signature I'm seeing.
For X-TD10: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY." (Source: )
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 23 2005 07:16 AM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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We could use some rain here in SW Florida, but not to the extent that the and UKMET are showing, that's for sure!
To Daniel, yes I saw the this morning. Three storms all in a row! However, since that model has not impressed me much this year, I'm not putting too much stock in that solution.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yeah, I just checked . I usually ignore it since it doesn't do too well with tropical systems (overstrenthening them), but I have to say, it looks impressive.
It takes X-TD10 to a strong system into the gulf and 97L to a strong system sitting out at sea. Meanwhile it builds a THIRD system off the Bahamas and sends it north. It is the only model does does anything off the Bahamas.
I wonder if it is accurate on this or not? I'd say no, but this has already been a wild hurricane season so anything's possible.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New GFS model run out:
I'm not liking what it does with X-TD10. It follows the LBAR track on 's graphic, heading into the east coast of FL, hovering over FL, then bouncing off and heading back into the Atlantic and up the eastern seaboard toward NC. EEP!
It also spins 97L out to sea, but it develops the wave behind 97L into something that heads toward the Carribean at a very rapid spead, reaching the Lesser Antillies in 6-7 days! That seems almost too fast for any sort of development, but it bears watching nonetheless.
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Also, quite an impressive sat photo of 97L over at !
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Also, is tracking 9 systems, either formed or invests, between the Pacific and the Atlantic. Wow.
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Also, take a look at the latest satelite Wind readings from 97L.
(sorry about so many posts in a row...but I keep seeing more stuff to post on!  )
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 23 2005 07:51 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Was just about to post about the when I saw yours. I'm not liking it either, especially since I am in Daytona. Knowing how these models change every day
makes me feel a lot better tho. The third system out on the run.... not only
is if fast, but very far south, then further south, then moving more north. I hope any
CV system doesnt run that far south that long, it makes it easier for it to reach the U.S.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html
Wind from the SSW (210 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 96.8 F (36.0 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob MUCU 222053Z 21009KT 9000 SCT020TCU 30/25 Q101
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUGT.html
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 89 F (32 C)
Heat index 96 F (36 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 62%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa
I think we will see the circulation form close to Eastern Cuba.
Somewhere between Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, and Moa Military , Cuba
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I didn't notice the "time stamp" was wrong.
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J.C.
Unregistered
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Noticed on the & at around the 96hr time that the high over the Mid Atlantic area begins to move out toward the NE. If this happened this might would allow for #10 or what ever it will be at that time, to begin to get caught up in a more of a sw flow that could set up over the Fl east coast and push it more to the n-ne like that of Irene only a lot closer to the coast.This may explain the reasoning behind the new run. I believe this will also depend on it strength and the speed of the system. A faster pace would allow it to get to the GOM, whereas a slower more erratic pace might would allow it to get caught up in some kind of flow from the sw. Just my thoughts this morning based on the new run and overall patterns from earlier this season. J.C.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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This was the 4:39am from the HPC:
CONSIDERING THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND TPC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEATURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS IN THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD... THE APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MAY EMERGE
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PRELIM PROGS DEPICT YDAYS FCST BASED ON COORDINATION WITH TPC...
AND DAY 7 EXTRAPOLATION. THROUGH DAY 5 THIS TRACK IS REASONABLY
CLOSE TO THE NEW 00Z ... AND 00Z UKMET ASIDE FROM TIMING
DIFFS. LAST 2 RUNS AND 00Z CANADIAN SHOW TRACKS FARTHER TO
THE RIGHT.
How do I see the canadian tracks? Anyone know?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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same place u found the , it is at the top
CMC
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Color me technologically impaired, but I can't get any animation on this link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
What settings should I use for initial time, field, and hours to get it to work?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Ahhh, still learning all the model pages. Normally I use this one: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Also, I'm stll learning the abbreviations.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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I couldn't get it to work until I clicked the faster then fwd button. May work for you too.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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when you open one of those models, scroll over to the right and hit forward
that should do it
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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