F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits
      #53698 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 AM

4PM 5-Sep-2005 Update
Were watching the tropical wave in the Bahamas called 94L for potential development because of its proximity to land.



However, Tropical Depression #14 may form from another tropical wave in the atlantic within the hour.

Original Update
Earlier this morning Maria reached Cat I status - the fifth hurricane of the season. Maria is in the central Atlantic moving north at 15mph. She is expected to continue on a northerly course - and eventually northeast - and should pose no threat to land.

NHC is now monitoring a new area of interest (Invest 93L) to the east of the central Bahamas - see the Storm Forum for initial info on this disturbed area. A weak surface low was located near 26.5N 66.5W at 04/12Z with convection primarily south of the low. The low was drifting slowly to the north and slow development of this system is possible. Models generally take the system north and then northeast .

A weak surface low is centered in the northern Bahamas near 26N 78W at 04/12Z. This system is currently poorly organized, however, the UK Met model does develop this area into a tropical cyclone and take it to the north - very slowly. Other model solutions show a wide range of expected tracks. Too early to say whether this area will develop or not, but it is certainly an area to monitor.

Invest 92L was showing new signs of increased convection near 10N 52W at 04/12Z. The system is moving west northwest into an area that is more favorable for development and this could become a Tropical Depression in the next day or two. Models intensify this system and move it into the central Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic by mid-week - worth keeping a close eye on this one.
ED

Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Maria

Animated model plots of Maria

Invests 93L, and 94L


Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 05 2005 04:31 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Closest to home [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #53700 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:50 AM

I will be watching the low near 26N 78W as this is only about 125 miles due east of Ft. Lauderdale this morning. It will be something to watch over the next 2 days. We have had plenty of rain and thunder all night long, this is a bit unusual to occur throughout the entire night. It is one ugly looking morning outside too. I will be watching the radar below all day. A year ago tonight we were dealing with Hurricane Frances.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 125
Re: Closest to home [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #53703 - Sun Sep 04 2005 11:10 AM

That doesn't look to have much rotation with it..... but there is a hint of it on the radar. Not a lot, but a hint....

If that was to wrap up and crank it could get interesting over the next couple of days. This we certainly do not need - Katrina came out of this same general area......

I'm also paying close attention to 92L.....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jusforsean
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #53704 - Sun Sep 04 2005 11:24 AM

Hi,
wow, this does look like a Katrina wannabe!

I have been looking at this area for a few days i believe and wondering could this spin out into something for south florida and if it did it wouldnt give us much lead time to prepare? Scary , what would the landfall time on this one be if it were to form? This is different then 93l correct? I try to make sense of all the data
and then theres Maria hoping she makes her turn soon!!

thanks
jusforsean


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
spin starting?? [Re: jusforsean]
      #53705 - Sun Sep 04 2005 11:44 AM

Is it me,or is something starting to spin near 23n 68w????????Look at the last 2 frames. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: spin starting?? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #53706 - Sun Sep 04 2005 12:19 PM

I believe that is what NRL classified as 93L. The NHC mentions this feature in the 5am TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: spin starting?? [Re: stormchazer]
      #53711 - Sun Sep 04 2005 02:39 PM

Quote:

I believe that is what NRL classified as 93L. The NHC mentions this feature in the 5am TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.




i agrree with the last part of the advisory, i think we'll have a TD soon..also, as for 92L(the thing down east of the lesser antilles doesnt have much spin, or convection as it should, but also could develope, where it will go is unknown. I hope the gulf gets a break for a little while. I hope everyone gets a break in this really busy season. Also, NYPD transported cops, relief workers, and a big big number of MTA busses to Louisiana..nice job NYC!...lol

Good Luck, and keep in your mindss that my birthday is at 12:15 AM tomorrow...lol jk

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Ryan]
      #53713 - Sun Sep 04 2005 03:45 PM

I know this may be a little premature, but, doesn't this appear to have some degree of rotation to it already?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Reaper]
      #53714 - Sun Sep 04 2005 03:57 PM

Yes, the MLB long range shows a center of rotation just north of Grand Bahama. You can also see this on visible. TWC just said a low level circulation has formed and this may be our next depression.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: spin starting?? [Re: h2ocean]
      #53720 - Sun Sep 04 2005 05:09 PM

hey guys,
just been looking at that area just north of Grand Bahama, and it certainly seems to be cranking up. Banding features are becomming evident in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with possible a strong band taking shape in the southeast quadrant. Models have been hinting at development in this area so it certainly needs watching, especially given its proximity to the coast. Think this could be our next classified system, but it might be a race between this and 93L to the NE of the T&C Islands. 93L has some good convective structure and a developing comma shape cloud signature, so it too could become a classified system soon too!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Rich B]
      #53723 - Sun Sep 04 2005 05:59 PM

Navy just posted a new Invest - 94L. Unfortunately they still haven't fixed the bug with their new storm pages, so both 93 and 94L don't show anything useful... You can click on the visible link and get the visible sat image, so I can confirm this is the system over the Bahamas.

--RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 04 2005 06:27 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53726 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:15 PM

New GFDL model out on 93L. It keeps it out at sea (though with a dangerous looking westward hook toward Virginia/Maryland/Deleware that later recurves to the north) and brings it up to 100kts in 72 hours.

No model runs on 94L it seems. NHC 5pm TWO mentioned it could develop into a TD within a couple days.

--RC


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JulieTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 10
Loc: Lithia, FL
"Anular" Hurricane [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53727 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 PM

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53728 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:32 PM

Invest 94L


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53729 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:35 PM

Quote:

New GFDL model out on 93L. It keeps it out at sea (though with a dangerous looking westward hook toward Virginia/Maryland/Deleware that later recurves to the north) and brings it up to 100kts in 72 hours.

No model runs on 94L it seems. NHC 5pm TWO mentioned it could develop into a TD within a couple days.

--RC




weak systems and models don't mix, its a wait and see for the next 24h at least


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: "Anular" Hurricane [Re: JulieTampa]
      #53730 - Sun Sep 04 2005 09:46 PM

Quote:

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.




I recall this same image from a storm last year. I believe we saw a clip from Ivan-2005 on MSNBC (Isaw it too and thought it was from last year).


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: spin starting?? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #53731 - Sun Sep 04 2005 10:00 PM

Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in Katrina aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: "Anular" Hurricane [Re: JulieTampa]
      #53732 - Sun Sep 04 2005 10:05 PM

Quote:

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.




No clue what MSNBC is using, but...

That effect was very visible on Katrina - supersized image that you can see it on:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005240-0828/Katrina.A2005240.1700.250m.jpg

Some other sat images you could see it even better on, but unfortunately I don't have an easy reference archive of those.

--RC

Dial up users beware - this file is over 8Mb download --Skeetobite

Thx Skeetobite for pointing that out. Here's a smaller one (~1MB): http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005240-0828/Katrina.A2005240.1700.1km.jpg
You can still see the eye formation on it, though it's no where near as fun as the huge image --RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 04 2005 10:27 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lysis
User


Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: spin starting?? [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #53733 - Sun Sep 04 2005 10:06 PM

If anyone cares, the eye MSNBC is using is unmistakenly Isabel's:

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov

--------------------
cheers


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 125
Re: spin starting?? [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #53734 - Sun Sep 04 2005 10:10 PM

Quote:

Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in Katrina aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready.




Ah, don't worry just yet about it. There's not much there right now - if it kicks up through Monday then I'd get a bit concerned, but the models aren't going to have a decent handle on it until it gets a solid initialization - which it doesn't have right at the moment.

I will say that I don't like the look of it though, all things considered... and the A98E run is particularly bad from my perspective - although the good news is that A98E has been abysmal in terms of track prediction for quite some time....

I doubt this will get to be anything significant before it comes inland - if it comes inland - other than as a rainmaker. On the other hand if it does track across and get into the gulf, we could be in for trouble that nobody in the gulf can really stand right now......


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1413 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 21274

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center