MikeC
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8:45AM Update
Ophelia is still stationary, looking rather poor on satellite at the moment, but holding its own for now. It's still set for a glancing blow or perhaps more of a hit on the Eastern coast of Carolina, and there still remains a pretty good chance it will go out to sea.
If it makes landfall it will be at category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm strength.
More to come as needed.
7:30AM Update
The forecast track for Ophelia has changed again, as well as intensity forecasts, for the better mostly. As this increases the chances for Ophelia to remain out to sea. The forecast track, however, still takes it over the outer banks, but the general trend has been northward over time. With slow moving systems, persistant trends are vital.
This means South Carolia is less likely to see a direct impact, North Carolina more likely (on the outer banks only, and chances are improving for an out to sea scenario (Which I still lean toward - mostly because of climatology and the elongation to the east shown on water vapor, however there is still plenty to keep the system more where it is so don't take that as gospel right now.).
Intensity wise, Ophelia has been taking shear and upwelling caused by the general slow motion of the system, and there just isn't anything around to make that change over the next few days. It may weaken, fluctuate, but I don't expect to see it gain strength.
Beyond Ophelia, it's suprisingly quiet in the Atlantic, a few disturbed areas, but nothing really to write about at the moment. If Ophelia were gone now it would be a great day in the Tropics.
Original Update
Hurricane Ophelia has stalled once again, this time the forecast track is set for North Carolina, showing how uncertain the track has been for the past few days.
There still are plenty of uncertanties with the current lack of motion, all areas in the cone will need to watch the system.
Hurricane watches are still up from the Savannah River to Cape Lookout in North Carolina.
Strength wise, Ophelia has managed to stay just over hurricane strength, but shear has kept it from growing stronger.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Apologies for the brevity of updates over the last few days, I've been extremely busy with family issues. Hopefully soon more information will return.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
Georgia Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Hopefully she doesn't strengthen fast that would be horrible. Ophelia may not be the east coast's and thank good for that. Is there anything else in the basin that would be worth watching?
(usually you'll find answers to this type of question in the Storm Forum)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 11 2005 02:22 PM)
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bigpapi
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Just noticed that the 06ooz models look like they are trending back south a bit. Could this be due to the stall and the building ridge? Anyway, a clear blue day with gusty winds here in Myrtle Beach. The winds are pretty strong due to the pressure gradient.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Just noticed that the 06ooz models look like they are trending back south a bit. Could this be due to the stall and the building ridge? Anyway, a clear blue day with gusty winds here in Myrtle Beach. The winds are pretty strong due to the pressure gradient.
The models are all over the place yet again with Ophelia. If recent history is any indication, that means the storm is going nowhere. The 1200z models have a lot of agreement, but there are still some that take the storm south, and some that take it out to sea. Looks like the "consensus" if there can be said to be one, is that Ophelia will terrorize the entire eastern seaboard, perhaps ultimately making landfall in Maine, if at all.
That's this model run. It wil change in a few hours.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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bigpapi
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Well, it's clouded up in the last few hours and the winds are running between 20 and 30 mph. The difference today is that the clouds are much lower and faster. Yesterday the cloud deck wasn't getting too far past the intracoastal today its advancing pretty far west. Also, looking at radar it appears the first band looks to be about 10 miles or so off shore. Myrtle Beach is only about 20 miles from the N.C border.
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Ryan
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Ophelia could make many landfalls is it follows the path, she could landdfall in NC, DE, NJ, LI, CT..thats a lot for this thanggg
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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WisconsinWill
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Quote:
Well, it's clouded up in the last few hours and the winds are running between 20 and 30 mph. The difference today is that the clouds are much lower and faster. Yesterday the cloud deck wasn't getting too far past the intracoastal today its advancing pretty far west. Also, looking at radar it appears the first band looks to be about 10 miles or so off shore. Myrtle Beach is only about 20 miles from the N.C border.
I have family in the Myrtle Beach area (actually in North Myrtle) and I've been talking to them almost hour by hour, trying to keep them on top of what's going on. Strangely enough they aren't interested in the current weather (they only want me to answer "where's the hurricane going), so thanks for the obs. As you noticed with the lowering clouds, the low-level flow over the coastal carolinas has moistened considerably since yesterday. Dewpoints are up about 10 degrees in the last 12 hours, so some of those gusty showers may indeed make it ashore later on.
As for the hurricane, it pays to be cautious in looking at short term trends, but it looks as though Ophelia is gradually becoming better organized. The 15-20kt of westerly shear that's been plaguing the hurricane for the past day or so has dropped off to 10kt or less, and as a result the cloud pattern is becoming more symmetrical, with outflow now well-established in the western semicircle. Though the two latest recon fixes don't show any appreciable change in pressure or winds, they do report a closed eyewall. Intensity is famously difficult to forecast, but it looks as though Ophelia might be poised to strengthen a bit in the next 24 hours.
There's also the suggestion in recon, satellite and radar that Ophelia is drifting westward or west-southwestward. This might very well be insignificant, but given the recent trend of the to push the track farther west, it's something to be watching for.
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bigpapi
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Yeah, noticed that slight westward drift lately. It's really hard to tell if it's a drift or the west side of the cyclone filling in now that the dry air has lessened. Bastardi's 11am update suggested that the ridge would win out over the next 48 hours and push Ophelia westward anywhere from 120 to 240 miles. Now I don't think his geography is that great because that would push it almost on shore south of Charleston, while he's calling for a Wilmington to Morehead City landfall.
Anyway, it's completely cloudy here now, a total change from yesterday. Might go out later and check out the Surf. Hopefully we get some rain, it's been a very dry month.
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Hugh
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Quote:
There's also the suggestion in recon, satellite and radar that Ophelia is drifting westward or west-southwestward. This might very well be insignificant, but given the recent trend of the to push the track farther west, it's something to be watching for.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed a potential WSW drift on satellite. I thought I was imagining it at first but it seems to be persisting at least for a few hours.
Also there appears on WV to be dry air intruding upon Ophelia yet again.... but the leading edge of the moisture is definately closer to the North Carolina coastline at the end of the WV loop than it was at the beginning of the loop.
I wouldn't say that South Carolina is out of the woods yet.
Update: net movement of .1 west in the last 3 hours according to the 2pm ET advisory.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 11 2005 06:09 PM)
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Thunderbird12
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The last recon fix at around noon EDT was 3' S and 3' W of the previous recon fix. That does confirm a SW drift, albeit a very slight one. The last few frames of the IR imagery since then shows the eye becoming a little more visible and basically not moving at all.
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CarolinaGurl
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Here in Wilmington - Grocery stores and Gas stations are busy, but not much else. Been down to Kure Beach and not much activity down there, a few people have put up their shutters. I think everyone is just playing wait and see. I have done all my preparations and my mom's in Kure Beach. Husband just made sure the boat wont blow away out of the back yard. Not liking the at all right now.
-------------------- My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur
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Thunderbird12
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Now it seems to have resumed a SW drift on satellite. The predicts a slow WSW movement during the next 24 hours and may turn out to be somewhat accurate if this trend continues. Obviously, the further west it gets, the more likely it is to hit something when it gets turned to the north as expected.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Now it seems to have resumed a SW drift on satellite. The predicts a slow WSW movement during the next 24 hours and may turn out to be somewhat accurate if this trend continues. Obviously, the further west it gets, the more likely it is to hit something when it gets turned to the north as expected.
IF it gets turned to the north as expected. Has Ophelia done anything "as expected" yet? The says she's not going to move, she starts moving. They say she's gonna move, she stalls. Ancient Chinese water torcher seems like a safer bet than predicting what Ophelia is going to do. The latest long-range radar images are inconclusive as to current motion, but the satellite does show a SW movement. I say movement because it looks like it's a bit too fast to be called a "drift" right now, but it will undoubtably stall again in an hour or two.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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bigpapi
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Yeah, been trying to figure out movement on the Long Range Radar. However, I could be completely off base, but I think Ophelia's drift South West took her just out of Wilmington's range to catch the center and just off of Charlestons, which hasn't been running properly anyway. Looking at Visibles it appears to have drifted SW. Notice the latest forecast, right back in my neck of the woods. The has already missed their first forecast point. Imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by the Georgia/SC border like predicted well over a week ago! Don't think it's probable, but who knows at this point.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Yeah, been trying to figure out movement on the Long Range Radar. However, I could be completely off base, but I think Ophelia's drift South West took her just out of Wilmington's range to catch the center and just off of Charlestons, which hasn't been running properly anyway. Looking at Visibles it appears to have drifted SW. Notice the latest forecast, right back in my neck of the woods. The has already missed their first forecast point. Imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by the Georgia/SC border like predicted well over a week ago! Don't think it's probable, but who knows at this point.
I was thinking "imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by Melborne, FL!' Don't think that's probable, but... anything is possible. The center is no longer visible on any radar that I can find, but the movement is clear on Visible imagery. I think the models are just scratching their heads.
5pm Discussion says:
The center drifted a little westward or west-southwestward over the
past few hours...but so far the movement is still quasi-stationary.
Now that's a technical term.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 11 2005 08:47 PM)
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emackl
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"I was thinking "imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by Melborne, FL!'"
HEY, I resent that statement.....ROFL! You just keep those thoughts to yourself..lol. It is a strange storm though. Everytime I look at her, I think she's doing something else that she's not supposed to be doing. I've decided to just not look for awhile.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
"I was thinking "imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by Melborne, FL!'"
HEY, I resent that statement.....ROFL! You just keep those thoughts to yourself..lol. It is a strange storm though. Everytime I look at her, I think she's doing something else that she's not supposed to be doing. I've decided to just not look for awhile.
Sorry...
good news, though. Looking at the latest satellite picture, Opelia is right on the dot for the track. Wait a minute, that's the current location dot, and the image is 15 minutes before the 4pm advisory!
Looks on IR like the current motion is somewhere between due west and due south. Looking at the visible loop, current motion is somewhere between due south and due east.
I give up! This storm is crazy!
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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If you have been using NASA MSFC closeup imagery to determine movement, a couple of the more recent images were slightly misaligned and may have given a momentary impression of westward movement. In fact, for the last couple of hours, Ophelia has been drifting just south of due east.
Also, a reminder to use the Forecast Lounge Forum for predictions that are based on little more than a hunch. All of the models generally perform poorly on a stationary system - and some of them perform poorly regardless, which is why models are used only as a guide when developing a forecast (along with many other inputs). If you "live by the model - die by the model" you are not forecasting anything - you are simply reading. Model outputs and sometimes even official forecasts generate a lot of conjecture - that often never verifies. If Hurricane Ophelia continues to drift eastward, the likelyhood of a U.S. landfall diminishes. This is not to say that she shouldn't be watched - for she should - however, speculation for landfall in Florida or even South Carolina based on current trends is remote at best.
Actually Ophelia is helping to create her own block for westward movement by pulling southward the western extension of the ridge over the mid Atlantic states and northeast states. Can South Carolina still get tropical storm force winds? Yes, but landfall there is not very likely.
ED
(Note: From just about the last good visible satellite image at 2240Z, the center coordinates were 31.4N 75.7W)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 11 2005 10:58 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
If you have been using NASA MSFC closeup imagery to determine movement, a couple of the more recent images were slightly misaligned and may have given a momentary impression of westward movement. In fact, for the last couple of hours, Ophelia has been drifting just south of due east.
I'm not sure what the NASA MSFC closeup imagery is. I'm using www.ssd.noaa.gov. There's no movement at all on the current loop.
Quote:
Actually Ophelia is helping to create her own block for westward movement by pulling southward the western extension of the ridge over the mid Atlantic states and northeast states. Can South Carolina still get tropical storm force winds? Yes, but landfall there is not very likely.
ED
I must be looking at a different water vapor loop - don't see any ridge extending over SC or NC - though on the WV loop I do see some movement southeast. Ophelia is definately looking less menacing in general.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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GuppieGrouper
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Ed was just reading your blog of 11:00 am 9/10. It is amazing that this storm has moved merely one tenth degree south and a tenth or so east of the stats over 24 hours ago. I know there has been movement or drifting, but this is amazing. Is there any possibility that this storm will survive to go around the blockage at the south. I know the question was asked indirectly a while ago, and I read the answer. But those highs to the north really look too high to allow any northward travel unless Ophelia's air pressures start to rise and it does not matter anymore.
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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