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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Beryl) , Major: 328 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 328 (Idalia) Major: 328 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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komi
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Re: StormCarib Update [Re: webdude]
      #61242 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:40 AM Attachment (177 downloads)

Seems like T9 was tornadoe, dunno if touch the ground !!!

http://65.75.66.73/kamx_compref124_current.jpg

Edited by komi (Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 AM)


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civil2183
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Re: StormCarib Update [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #61243 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 AM

On the IR, the eye has also pretty much filled in.

Edited by civil2183 (Sat Oct 22 2005 02:44 AM)


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Twistergal
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Re: StormCarib Update [Re: superfly]
      #61244 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:46 AM

This info is from a site I've been reading off and on tonight. The writer is receiving this news from co-workers, friends, etc. who are in the Cancun area and he's reporting it from Mexico City. Just to give folks a bit of an FYI as to what's been happening. If interested in reading the forum/thread, the URL is:

http://cancuntravelonline.com (From there, scroll down page, look on left side and click on Cancun Forum.)


"We have some very troubling information coming from our team in Cancun. Police and military are reporting the following:

The Boulevard Kukulcan where all of the hotels are located is no longer visible. The Caribbean Sea has crossed over and met the Lagoon and the waters are rising. All hotels in the hotel zone are flooded and taking water.

The Hyatt Hotel (not sure whether it is Regency or Cancun Caribe) has suffered "extensive structural damage". If you remember earlier images in the thread there were some photos from Televisa of the Hyatt Hotel taken from The Mall Forum by the Sea.

The Hurricane has provoked tornados in the region as well as in Cuba where 4 tornados caused some destruction there.

80% of Cancun is flooded with 3 to nearly 5 feet of water.

The Mayor of Cancun and the Committee for Hurricanes made a tactical decision about 2 hours ago to evacuate some of the areas as well as some of the shelters that are in danger of flooding. The governor of Quintana Roo said in a press release just an hour ago that Cancun and the Riviera Maya has received unprecidented damage and the worst is yet to come.

We do not know what areas yet or whether they are locals or tourists.

Again the downtown area is flooded as well and Gaby is reporting that our friends from Televisa are trapped in a hotel downtown and are awaiting rescue from military staff.

There has still only been one reported death in Cancun and the 9 injured in Playa Del Carmen so far.

Susana Lopez is reporting that they are not able to leave the hotel where they are in downtown called the Handel Hotel because of high water and currents passing the hotel.

Military Troops have arrived from Veracruz and Tabasco with Boats and equipment prepared to move in and evacuate or rescue after the storm has died down.

State Police reported just a short while ago that the area of the Hilton Cancun and the Marriott is "out of control". We don't know what that means as communication in Cancun is minimal.

More coming in."

Edited by Twistergal (Sat Oct 22 2005 02:48 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Models?? [Re: Twistergal]
      #61245 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:05 AM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
VALID OCT 22/0000 UTC THRU OCT 25/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)

..HURCN Wilma
THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVER 50 MB TOO WEAK WITH THE CNTR. THE NAM AND GFS WILL BE WEAK WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY AS A RESULT. THE NAM IS OVER A QRTR INCH TOO DRY WITH THE PW AT MZBZ...TO THE S OF Wilma. THE NAM IS ALSO OVER A QRTR INCH TOO DRY WITH THE PW AT XMR IN CNTRL FL.

..HURCN Wilma
THE 00Z NAM IS DEEPER AND MORE NLY THAN THE 12Z NAM WITH Wilma OVER THE YUCATAN. ON DAYS 2-3...THE NAM TRENDS MORE NELY AND DEEPER WITH Wilma. THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER CARRYING Wilma INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF...RACING HER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. THIS IS DUE TO THE FASTER/DEEPER TREND WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF BY DAY 2. THE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING DEEPER WITH Wilma.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES..
..HURCN Wilma
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR Wilma IS CLOSER TO THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET TRACK THAN THE FASTER GFS OR SLOWER/MORE SLY NAM. THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET ARE PREFERRED WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF STEERING Wilma BY MID PD.


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danielwAdministrator
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2AM EDT Tropical Wx Discussion Excerpts [Re: danielw]
      #61246 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:16 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
(edited~danielw)

WILMA MADE A SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 11 PM EDT NEAR PLAYA DEL CARMEN MEXICO AND SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS FILLED WITH THE DIAMETER SHRINKING FROM 20 NM TO AN IRREGULAR 5-10 NM.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF Wilma HAS RESULTED IN A PROFUSE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST...AND AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ISLA MUJERES...JUST E OF CANCUN...HAS REPORTED ABOUT 16" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED IN
ISLA MUJERES HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
DURING THE PAST 10 TO 12 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 108
MPH...173 KM/HR. (from the Hur. Wilma 1 AM CDT Adv #27A)

***************************************************
EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N65W...OR ABOUT 225 NM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ISLAND BEGINNING LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

Full text available here, and on Main Page of flhurricane.com
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/220000.shtml?


Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:21 AM)


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Twistergal
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Re: StormCarib Update [Re: superfly]
      #61247 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:31 AM

A bit more info on what's happening in Cancun, per cancuntravelonline.com:

"Governor is saying that this is going to register as the worst disaster in Mexico's history with damage and records set.

Some Details:

So Far, 55 centimeters of rain has fallen on Isla Mujeres since 2AM yesterday (a Record).
Stan dumped 36 centimeters and killed 1,500 people in Mexico this month.
In 1997, Paulina dumped 44 centimeters.

Some bad news just in, sorry if I posted it already but I was trying to confirm the information. It is confirmed...

The Caribbean sea crossed the beaches, into the hotels and has met with the lagoon. The road no longer exists as it is now just one big ocean. Worst yet between 3 am and 5 am, the water is expected to rise to 30 feet or 3 stories in the hotel zone, causing obviously unmentionable damages to property there. Again, that is a direct quote from the information passed at the 11PM briefing.

Also, doesn't seem we are getting a break right now. The evacuation of the shelter we talked about is now confirmed that the 2,500 evacuated were tourists. Evacuation was because the ceiling tiles were falling.

All of the shelters, homes, businesses, are taking in water because of the pounding rain hitting the buildings."

--------------------
Toto, we're still in Kansas!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Regarding Evacuating to Orlando - NWS Key West [Re: Twistergal]
      #61248 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:35 AM

EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY
EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY
EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

Excerpt FROM NWS Key West Hurricane Statement. 11:30 PM

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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webdude
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Re: Regarding Evacuating to Orlando - NWS Key West [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #61249 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:59 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 445 AM EDT

* AT 340 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
FROM OAKLAND PARK...TO WILTON MANORS...TO THE PORTION OF POMPANO
BEACH SOUTH OF ATLANTIC AVENUE.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: StormCarib Update [Re: Twistergal]
      #61250 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:02 AM

Lluvia torrencial de 590 mm en Isla Mujeres, en las últimas 24 h. Olas de 5 a 8 m en Cancún y Riviera Maya.

translated by google and bablefish

Torrential rain of 590 mm (23.5inches) in Isle of Women, the last 24 h. Waves of 5 to 8 meters (16.4 to 26.24feet) in Cancún and Mayan Riviera..

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/eSMN/Espaniol/PagsNavegacion/Default.aspx


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scottsvb
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Re: StormCarib Update [Re: danielw]
      #61251 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:15 AM

IM going to bed,,, the 6z NOGAPS is out and back to a Naples Landfall - WPB...0z had it going along and just south of the keys then thru the bahamas....key will be how far NW she gets crossing the Yucitan and how much of a bend then,,,NE or ENE? how much? all questions we will find out starting later Saturday night into Sunday..........

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KC
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Re: Models?? [Re: danielw]
      #61252 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:34 AM

I was hoping for an overnight shift. I see we still have the bullseye here in Naples. We are usually saved by a shift at the last possible moment. However, don't think that we are not prepared. My first employer after my move to SW Floirda taught me that each pending threat is another training exercise, and you take the lessons learned and incorporate them into your plan so that you are better prepared the next time. The waiting is difficult and also very hard on businesses who need to continue to run (facing uncertainty about the aftermath) while balancing safety concerns of employees and their families. We will continue to prepare and wait.

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evergladesangler
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Re: Models?? [Re: KC]
      #61253 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:40 AM

She's barely budged in 3-4 hours. Any new ideas on when and where she'll get moved?

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HanKFranK
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Re: Models?? [Re: evergladesangler]
      #61254 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:55 AM

the longer the hurricane stays hung up, the later it hits florida and the weaker. if the hurricane is off the yucatan by sundown today, it'll probably come in earlier and stronger. if it's still over land by then, probably weaker and late in the day on monday. target zone is still fort myers, don't buy the keys or florida straits.
that pesky little 99L feature south of puerto rico has a better radar signature than earlier, but still not a definite closed circulation. with Wilma where it is it won't get priority recon, so info won't be as good. should move across hispaniola in 30-44 hours or so, which will probably kill anything that might have formed. be surprised if it can survive that trek.
HF 0854z22october


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danielwAdministrator
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5AM Discussion excerpts [Re: HanKFranK]
      #61255 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:00 AM

THE
STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS.

THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF Wilma WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE
HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.


THE INTENSITY OF Wilma WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL.
WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH Wilma...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.


FORECASTER AVILA

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 05:09 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Models?? [Re: evergladesangler]
      #61257 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:32 AM

Quote:

She's barely budged in 3-4 hours. Any new ideas on when and where she'll get moved?




See the NHC 5am discussion. Across Southern Florida Monday, wind field expanding and beginning to go extratropical.

Meanwhile, Cancun and the Yucatan is being torn apart tonight by Wilma. Please Say a prayer for all those trapped in Shelters and for those who are loosing their homes and or loved ones.

Sometimes, we get so involved in tracking these storms that we loose track of the human toll that is involved.


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maddie
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Re: Models?? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #61258 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:06 AM

Quick question ......watching the Weather Channel and then checking NHC, the Hurricane path reported from the Weather Channel seems much more south than the NHC...confusing as to why these would be so different. In your opinion where do you think Wilma may make landfall? And what would you anticipate that our weather in the Tampa Bay area would be on Monday?

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StPeteBill
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Re: Models?? [Re: maddie]
      #61259 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:17 AM

Quote:

Quick question ......watching the Weather Channel and then checking NHC, the Hurricane path reported from the Weather Channel seems much more south than the NHC...confusing as to why these would be so different. In your opinion where do you think Wilma may make landfall? And what would you anticipate that our weather in the Tampa Bay area would be on Monday?




I don't understand the Weather Channel. I am in St Pete and my dad called earlier and said "I see on the WC that your out of danger down there". That was a suprise to me as I don't watch the WC and "out of danger" was not what I was hearing from the local mets here. It really seems like the WC would be in line with the NHC as alot of people could get a false sense of security watching them. As far as what to expect on Monday, it is still anyones guess, the cane has stalled now.


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emackl
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Re: Models?? [Re: StPeteBill]
      #61260 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:21 AM

I agree. Accuweather tends to veer from the NHC with storms. However, they've kept Tampa/St Pete in the cone. Stupid not to until we see when she makes her move.

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maddie
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Re: Models?? [Re: StPeteBill]
      #61261 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:27 AM

I am glad that I am not the only one hearing this , our local channles are saying one thing but the Weather Channel is saying another. I have to make a decision by this evening wheather I should pull my Service Technicians off the road on Monday , and of course there are my In-Laws that live in the same area that state " they would rather ride out the Hurricane than get stuck in a car together for that long, trying to escape the storm"...i moved my entire family last year to Polk county to escape Charlie when it was believed to be heading for our area, then with the sudden switch in the path I put everyone directly in the path of the storm...I do not want to make the same mistake agian. :

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danielwAdministrator
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Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61262 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:29 AM

I was just about to post a preliminary heads up for the Tropical Storm Watch and Hurricane Watch areas.

I have TWC on, but I haven't paid much attention to them as I use the NHC products.

The 4 AM CDT 3 Day Track Forecast is for a tentative Landfall near Marcos Island.
Wilma should then, based on the 4 AM Map, track ENE passing just South of Lake Okeechobee, and exit the Peninsula near Ft Pierce.
All of this is based on the 4 AM CDT 3 Day Track Map.

I just saw what you were refering to.
TWC's track map ONLY extends as far North as the Southern side of Tampa Bay. This is INCORRECT.

The 4AM CDT NHC Cone map, Covers the West FL Coast, from the Yankeetown/ Bayport Area, all the way around to near St Augustine on the East FL Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084606.shtml?3day?large
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/break_seUS.gif

My thoughts on the Tropical Storm Watch are from Longboat Key to Dry Tortugas.
NHC may bypass the Trop Storm Watch and go straight to a Hurricane Watch for the above named area.
Normal Procedures would be:
Tropical Storm Watch 36 hours ahead of 39mph or higher winds.
Trop. Storm Warning-24 hrs or less ahead of winds 39mph or higher.
Hurricane Watch-36 hours ahead of 74mph or higher winds.
Hurricane Warning-24hrs or less ahead of 74mph or greater winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml


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