NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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also i just noticed the storm is elongated from ne to sw quite a bit now
sorry for the 1 liner
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Looks due North and then slightly West of North. Also, eye is getting smaller. However, with the close proximity if land, I don't think there will be any intensification.
I see some wobbling west and/or east of due north periodically, but the overall motion appears to be a net due north.
There has been an update from the Key West NWS. Here's the significant part IMO:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY
EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's an "old" two dimensional model and is discounted a bit these days. And that's with good reasoning considering that the atmosphere is three dimensional (actually four when you throw in time as a dimension). Yeah, that hurts my head, too.
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Michael
PWS
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willw
Weather Watcher
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Definitely has a more northern component...
This recent wobble north is all that's needed near the florida coast to make a ft.myers landfall a sarasota landfall.
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks....Why do they even consider using and posting it anymore????? Must have some validity I stress "SOME"
Thanks again for the response 
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StormDrain
Registered User
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Loc: Pinellas County FL
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I've been telling my husband that I think it will be like the game pong once it gets to where it is now and not go across land. It looks like it may pan out. husband was shelter manager for years here in pinellas county. His thoughts are it will be north of pinellas county for land fall. Don't know if it's years of dealing with these or just his gut
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I think we may be getting some land interaction here. I'm not so sure she is moving more north because of atmosphere, but becuase she doesn't want to hit land. This seems to happen more with the stronger storms, for some reason. Also depends upon angle of attack. Since is coming up kind of sideways, she's trying to skid around the land mass.
These, of course, are non-professional opinions.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Definitely has a more northern component...
This recent wobble north is all that's needed near the florida coast to make a ft.myers landfall a sarasota landfall.
Or a Tampa Bay landfall. While they may be wobbles... a wobble this close to land has a major impact on the damage zone. In this case, it also has a very major impact on the strength of , since it won't weaken as much if it doesn't stay over land as long - and won't weaken much at all if it does not make landfall on the mainland. The western edge of the eye is onshore... but the center has not made landfall yet. If it moves due north from the current position, will make landfall at Cancun overnight, but will immediately be back over water because it will be moving parallel to the coast.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I'm with you, Hugh. They keep showing that this storm is going to go over the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken rapidly...at this point, IMHO, it would have to make a hard left turn to do that...and I don't see that coming. I haven't seen it all day. I even asked hubby to look and he said "NO WAY...it AIN'T going to happen".
I feel so very sorry for the people in Mexico that are being affected by this storm...the conditions must be absolutely hellacious. We spent 10 days in Cancun this past April, and if the hotels are getting hit so badly, I can only imagine what the conditions are for those who live in Playa Del Carmen. My prayers are certainly with them...
I heard earlier that Max Mayfield said that it's moving more "west" than "north"...I don't see that at all. Am I missing something?
I still think Florida's in for a surprise this coming weekend.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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willw
Weather Watcher
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Well my point is... no matter what you think people need to be ready from tampa to miami... never know what will happen...
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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Quote:
Looks due North and then slightly West of North. Also, eye is getting smaller. However, with the close proximity if land, I don't think there will be any intensification.
Agreed but isn't this where the jet stream arrives? We've had more cloud cover earlier here than the Kat. Temp drop has been slower so it's gonna move. ...hopefully weakening as you predict  )
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I heard earlier that Max Mayfield said that it's moving more "west" than "north"...I don't see that at all. Am I missing something?
I still think Florida's in for a surprise this coming weekend.
I think Mayfield needs new glasses. The LAST image, however (0015z) DOES show a westward movement... so it's still wobbling.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I know that they were calling for a reinstensification once it EXITED the Peninsula ... Denis Phillips said that about 100 times...but if what we are seeing is a trend, and I believe it is, than I wonder what that intensification will bring to Florida. It's going to be there whether it crosses over the peninsula or not, the question is: how much and what effect?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Flagler County Man
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howdy all -
My mother-in-law was staying at a resort/hotel in Riviera Maya and she called a few days ago saying they were evacuating her 300 miles west inland to a university...anybody have any knowledge of where this might be? Also, last few wobbles appear to be west??
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Looking this last frame, seems like is a wobble .. ? What you guys think ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Just noticed that wunderground has moved the cone back into the Big Bend area. How far north do you think it could possibly go?
I'm quoting you as there was some question as to preparations and possible Target Areas early this morning.
The 3 Day Cone Now (5pm EDT-Friday) Includes ALL of the Southern -THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. This is basically EVERYONE South of a Brooksville/Cedar Key Line to Titusville/ Kennedy Space Center Line.
The following Hurr. Local Statement was issued by the Key West NWS Office about 12 minutes ago.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
830 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
(edited~danielw)
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by Rdietch (Sat Oct 22 2005 12:52 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Yes, I've been seeing wobbles all day...but nothing to suggest a trend to the wnw. I'm not saying he's incorrect, maybe it will still happen, but it hasn't happened so far and I heard that at 2pm. This storm is so strong, that it may be trying to keep itself together and just keep bouncing off the land...wouldn't that be typical of a storm? Take the path of least resistance. I think that's what she's doing. It's not like she's going through the mountains of central Cuba.
Hm. Another day of watching, waiting, watching, waiting. I think it's going to just graze the coast and then move into the GOM.
It's getting closer, so it's getting more interesting.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Quote:
Quote:
I heard earlier that Max Mayfield said that it's moving more "west" than "north"...I don't see that at all. Am I missing something?
I still think Florida's in for a surprise this coming weekend.
I think Mayfield needs new glasses. The LAST image, however (0015z) DOES show a westward movement... so it's still wobbling.
I think we all should know by now we can't watch every little wobble. It will drive everyone insane. I appreciate all the important info here but I personally tend to go with Max Mayfield since he is the pro with many years of experience. If he is wrong then it will be corrected in a timely manner. The has done a good job so far this season and I see no reason to question their ability now 
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Michael
PWS
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