Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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I think the vast majority of posters on this site go to great lengths to state that they are only stressing opinons based on each individuals perception of the facts.
90L has a long way to go and a lot to get through before we know where, when and most importantly if it will effect land. We all hope it will be a fish spinner
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
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I"ve read on another site that the LLC is not fully closed with 90l is this correct or is it closed but just lack the organization to be upgraded to a TD?
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W.D. Duncan
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
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There is a closed low. See latest QuickSCAT pass... http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat07081300_90as.png
Take care...
WW-911
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm... i think its very close to TD status now... if not already... the is setting up nice.. and the cloud tops in the last few hours are pretty cold. Outflow looks good, banding becoming evident in the sats...... just a matter if wants to pull the trigger and go ahead in call it a TD... or wait and see what the night holds for it... If they don't at the 11pm, and it holds through the night, i would expect morning crew to upgrade... And at this rate we could have a TS on our hands very soon... i don't see anything in the short term that would hinder it.... and yes its way out there in the atlantic... kinda susprising, but its been a few years since we see this in this area....look so good..... Watching the Navy now... I would assume Navy would go ahead with the upgrade to atleast TD?
Goes-east "Central Atlantic "
**Met-9 on NOAA is ever 6 hrs**
Some of the Quickscat flags show 25kts plus... so its seems its right there.
The reason i say may hold... is in the 8:05pm TWD... they said that the low-level circulation is partially exposed... i am trying to find better sat shots... wonder what sat they are using? 
"A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
25W S OF 18N...IS LOCATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
12.5N25W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. "
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 12 2007 09:46 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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This source seems to show the system within the past hour:
http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/satimage/satImagery_big.cgi?domain=tisa_msg
Hard to tell much though given how small the image is, though.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think the center has reformed under the new burst of convection. Looking at the last several frames of the WV loop it now has some banding features wrapping around where the center would have been. Its definitely looking more organized in the last 12hrs
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Don't think 90L has made TD yet. tonight.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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It did not.
The 1030pm update still keeps it too disorganized to be a TD.
--RC
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Holy <pick your expletive>! I go out of town for the weekend, come back into town and see a blob out in the east Atlantic on the , and come here and see MikeC's discussion, mentioning a name I do not care to hear: . On top of that, appears to be down, and SSD does not have a floater on 90L yet.
Obviously the discussion of a long-range path for a system that has yet to organize into a depression is very premature, but... the computer models certainly paint what could ultimately turn into a very grim picture.
I've been away since Friday as I said so I don't know the genesis of this system, but looking at the graph based upon the realm of speculation, it looks like if it develops further east, it's more likely to go into the Gulf, whereas if it develops further west, it's more likely to be more north, and take aim at the eastern seaboard, or be a fish spinner. Is this the speculation, or am I misinterpreting the graph?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Just a couple of things to add
First, to my way of sizing systems up, 90L has been a tropical cyclone for the last 12 hours. loves to go conservative on these puppies when they are well-out in the Atlantic with little, if any, data available to verify their suspicions. I do suspect we will have TD 4 up today, and probably as early as 5AM, baring some unforeseen major reversal of fortune for 90L.
Secondly, of note, an interesting little surface spinner, albeit a touch dry, around 10N 47W getting little mention anywhere, but might be worth keeping an eye on. It is that time of year. If it develops some deeper convection before running into the east Caribbean graveyard, I wouldn't be surprised to see it invest tagged.
Closer to home at the moment, if no further development comes of the mess in the western and central Caribbean, someone or someones is/are still likely to get a slug or two of really juicy tropical moisture. Pressures are falling a touch down there, and waters are very warm, but primarily the upper air environment continues to be hostile. However, as notes, that may slowly change over the next few days. There appears to be two regions where some surface cyclogenesis could occur in there.
Lastly, another rather impressive wave is rolling off Africa right behind 90L.
All things considered, it wouldn't hurt to have Flossie scurry off to the south of the islands so that flights can be ready to go here, as well. Count 'em - four features probably worth monitoring now.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Is anyone else having trouble accessing the site? I haven't been able to get on since Fri./Saturday. It will say Loading...and then after a few minutes just time out.
Is it due to site traffic because of Flossie, or is there an alternate url I can try?
Thanks,
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Tropical Depression 4 has finally developed, take a look at the dvorack readings..
13/1145 UTC 11.8N 30.6W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
They should upgrade 90L at 11 for sure. Everyones getting mad at the on the wunderground blog but teh did a smart thing, they waited to see if the blow up of storms persisted. 96L a moth ago may have reached TD status but did not last due to dry air and dust, that's why the did not pull the trigger. Anyways, the storm should slow some and allow the convection to catch up with the COC. I think Dean should be on board later today or tonight. I absolutely agree with Accuweather meteorologist Henry Margusity, this storm is a Florida storm, just don't buy the southern solution.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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NRL is already reporting it as 04L.NONAME, so it has been upgraded. just hasn't posted the update yet. (9:30a EDT)
Edit:
NRL just added 91L to it's list in the Gulf, just off the Yucatan. (10:15a EDT)
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 13 2007 10:17 AM)
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