danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest Track models are out. Range of early cycle models is between the MS/ AL Border and Grand Isle,LA.
These will change every 6 hours, but it will give an idea of the possible direction of the system.
Interesting is the SHIPS model. It actually intensifies the storm north of New Orleans.
But then we are talking about TD 5. It's worse than the energizer bunny. 
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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At 5:30 am ET Eglin AFB, FL radar has the surface low stationary about 75 to 90 miles south and about 60 miles offshore. Pressures are falling along the coast of FL and showers are beginning to consolidate around the CoC. Bouy platfroms 42039 and 42040 confirm surface trough axis extending southwest and west from CoC back to LA.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Latest Track models are out. Range of early cycle models is between the MS/ AL Border and Grand Isle,LA.
These will change every 6 hours, but it will give an idea of the possible direction of the system.
Interesting is the SHIPS model. It actually intensifies the storm north of New Orleans.
But then we are talking about TD 5. It's worse than the energizer bunny.
Thanks for the laugh, Danny. I REALLY needed a laugh this morning (woke up sick in the middle of the night).
I still believe the is under-estimating the probability of re-development, personally. Looking at the early morning satelllite loop, I would put it at 80%. A LLC is clearly evident on Eglin radar. Convection is building around the LLC, as shown on satellite loops. Is it the most organized storm ever? No... but, it is, in my opinion, more organized than it was six hours before the previous final advisory was written. In my judgement, unless the system falls apart in the next two hours, the should issue an advisory at 11am, to re-post tropical storm warnings. They may be reluctant to do so, because they posted them once before for this system and then it losts organization before moving onshore the first time, but conditions are more favorable this time around. I feel a bit like I'm watching a rerun of , in reverse order and obviously on a much less intense scale - with , the first time was the more intense, with this system I think the second go-round is going to be the more intense. I still don't expect much more than a minimal tropical storm at landfall, simply because of the timing, but, well, this IS Five we're talking about... it's ALIVE 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is currently trying to 'fix' a center on X TD 5. Possible center at 29 N/ 87 W. Using flight wind and pressure data. Highest wind speeds encountered so far are southeast of the "wind center" so they are still searching.
Lowest pressure so far is 1009.1 mb near the "center" location.
TD5 Pressure and Wind History:
Time Lowest Extrap Pressure HighestFlt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.) Highest SFMR Peak(10s Avg.) SFC. Wind
08/10 22:29:00Z 1004.9mb (~29.67 inHg) 27kts (~31.0mph) 31kts (~35.6mph)
08/11 09:54:00Z 1003.0mb (~29.62 inHg) 37kts (~42.5mph) 38kts (~43.7mph)
08/11 19:10:30Z 1008.3mb (~29.78 inHg) 28kts (~32.2mph) 43kts (~49.4mph)
08/16 18:03:00Z 1009.1mb (~29.80 inHg) 26kts (~29.9mph) 26kts (~29.9mph)
Data courtesy of tropicalatlantic.com
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 16 2010 06:42 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Twenty knots of east to west shear is effecting the system and 30 knots isn't that far away to the south. The center is right on the edge of the convective mass to its west and along a north/south axis is exposed to the east..
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON center fix at
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°07'N 87°02'W (29.1167N 87.0333W)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 21kts (~ 24.2mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:05:50Z
Might make a Tropical Depression due to the closed Low. But it's kind of 50/ 50.
The Answer:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
At the time of this post, 4:51pm EDT the first outer rain bands possibly associated with XTD5 are beginning to move into SE MS. 90 miles NW of Mobile,AL
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 16 2010 08:53 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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The center of the low is now completely exposed and void of convection along a north/south axis and east. Center is located now at 29.0N and 87.5W. Shear has abated and appears to be in area of 10 to 15 knots or less, but stronger shear is not very far away to the SE.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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does it seem the low is tracking more north and becoming elongated?
like i would say its closer to PNS then it was 5 hours ago...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 16 2010 11:46 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Yes; it appears elongated NNE to SSW. I'm about to take a look at it now...I just wiped my two drives and reloaded Windows and just got back on the air. The 17/00Z package won't be out for another few hours.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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The area in the Caribbean is not looking all that bad right now. If the convection persists throughout the day, it may be something worth watching in a day or two as it heads into the Western Caribbean. Other than that, all is very quite right now.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just a heads up NASA DC-8 is doing a 5-hr mission shakedown into the storms off of LA... if you have google earth... see link to a real time update, last check there we just east of houston... (note.. when the global hawk goes up for a test flight later this week... it will be real time here too!) **today there loading the GPS Dropsonde parts in... preparing the aircarft for flights later**
Mission synopsis:
No NOAA missions are planned in the next 24 h. Consideration was given
to a mission into ex-TD05 but due to its anticipated short duration over
water, no flights are planned. NOAA is watching PGI27L for signs of
development.
The DC-8 has a takeoff time of 15 UTC 17 August for a 5-hour shakedown
mission and exploration of convection associated with ex-TD05 (or
renewed TD05 if it organizes) over the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico.
The G-V is scheduled to takeoff at 10 UTC 17 August for a 6-h flight
into PGI27L. The flight pattern is a lawnmower pattern with north-south
oriented legs fit into roughly an east-west-elongated rectangle centered
south of the Dominican Republic. On Wednesday, August 18, a takeoff time
of 10 UTC has been proposed to further investigate PGI27L during an 8-h
mission.
http://grip.nsstc.nasa.gov/reporting/
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher
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Looks like Remnant TD5 has been taking in a jazz brunch on the shore of Lake Pontchartrain for a couple of hours now. Sort of reminds me of Danny over Mobile Bay. Maybe that plane is being sent to tell Remnant TD5 it's time to move on. I assumed the models escorting the system North and then East were reliable, since they all agreed. Any possibility this delinquent depression wannabe could turn South? (I will try not to personify any further.)
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Just pointing something out here. Most models develop the wave that "fizzled" out 24 hours from now, apparently SAL is not as strong and the satellite shows the waves moisture field a bit large and should keep the storm in tact, away from dry air and SAL. If models are right, which is a big IF, then we will have our first Cape Verde Hurricane of the season. The wave in back of the current one has little model support off and on from the . The 12Z doesn't develop it though. Ridging is looking more clearer as the NAO becomes positive, the looks to be responding to that showing the wave that sort of weakened after exiting Africa as a category 2-3 storm hitting North Florida in 276 hours from now. It's foolish to believe it, but not so foolish to see that the models are consistent with it, hinting at a long track storm next week. It'll be interesting how the troughs and highs play out with this one. The models are now showing that the Atlantic will start to get active next week onward into the Hurricane Season.
(Some off-topic material was removed.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 17 2010 10:23 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Allen there will probably be around that 15-18 storms as you said. Still, we cant take models into consideration after 4-5 days out. Peeps looking at model runs 120+ needs to understand that they will change from run to run and also
you have to look to see what other models are seeing (if) the same thing. Usually the compared to the .
GFDL is usually pretty good also up to 72hrs. Hitting the US in 200hrs + right now is a farmers almanac...they been changing each run.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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There is a strong cutoff upper level low near 10N 53W that will prohibit any Cape Verde systems from moving west towards the United States. The Azores upper ridge is located near 22N and 33W. Between these two features thee is considerable shear...30 to 40 knots. The upper level low is part of the that divides the AO in half and anything east of it for the time being will be redirected around the Azores ridge. The Mid Continental Ridge over the South Central US and the Bermuda Ridge is only at the surface and low levels near 35N 65W and 27N 65W and non existent any highter than 700 millibars.
Closer to home...There is an upper low near 20N 78W and it is between this ULL and the ULL at 10N 53W we find a small ridge axis and our tropical wave at the surface.
There is no chance given the upper pattern as it is currently will lend itself to the number of named storms anticipated; however, despite the pattern that is out there now it's the best its been in quite some time and areas of shear in excess of 30 knots are small.
On the synoptic scale there is a cold front that is expected to penetrate the Deep South and move offshore as a long wave trough along the East Coast or a cutloff upper low off the VA coast in 168 hours (1 week). A strong Pacific low and associated trough is expected to slam into the west coast of the US amplifying the Mid-Continental ridge initially and it retrograding west to the Rocky Mtns.
As many have observed the paints what appears to be a hurricane towards the latter end of the period south of Bermuda and again away from the eastern coast of the USA with the longwave trough in the position its in near the coast.
The and are very, very good at painting large "dynamic" synoptic features between 72 and 120 hours and generally 50/50 out to 168 hours.
We cannot ask the models to be that specific and that good out to the ranges they are painting what appears to be hurricanes and until these features are within 168 hours, please don't put a lot of faith in these models verifying late range systems.
As for our departing Ex-TD5 it looks better over land than it did over water. I look forward to reading the post-analysis on this system when the season closes out later this year.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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With the latest images on the VIS Sat loop here: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellit...g&itype=vis, does it appears that there is a slight spin in the convection south of Hispaniola?
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Okay, back on focus please. We don't even have a formative storm yet and we've jumped to 200+ forecasts based on model output. When something develops we'll start a speculation thread in the Forecast Lounge - but lets hold off until that happens. On the Main Page thread I'd rather that we not speculate on model output past 120 hours, i.e., the period of time that would be covered by an forecast bulletin - and even then with a lot of common sense.
There is already a thread in The Tropics Today to follow any development updates on these waves. Finally, please attempt to stay on topic in the Main News thread as outlined in the Description: "you can only reply to the topics that are covered in the News Talkback main page leadoff article. "
Thanks,
ED
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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
As for our departing Ex-TD5 it looks better over land than it did over water. I look forward to reading the post-analysis on this system when the season closes out later this year.
I would have to agree with you, Bill. Ex-TD5 does tend to look better over land. One thing in particular which seems to be happening though, in the midst of the remnant convection, is that there are now at least two COC's. To hearken back to my earlier question (Will this system curve North (again) as the models all indicated, or could it curve South?), maybe the answer is "yes" to both possibilities. This is where I prove just how amateur I really am . . . but, looking at the Wundermap radar loop out of Baton Rouge (with storm tracks "on"), it almost looks like a Fujiwara phenomena has been going on for several hours now between the COC in extreme Southwest MS and the COC near Lafayette. Maybe the two COC's will eventually "repel" each other in opposite directions, even though they are both associated with the same broad low. I am just using "Fujiwara" as an analogy, not an analysis. All I have really been doing is watching two persistent vortices parallel each other on radar for a while now. While they appear to have separate bands of convection, their "arms" seem to almost be connected like plastic monkeys in a barrel. Yet the two COC's are obviously at odds with each other as well, because a fairly intense thunderstorm from NW to SE has stayed fired up for hours along their border where their opposite direction winds collide. What are the chances of this broad low splitting?
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Post removed.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Thu Aug 19 2010 06:11 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Although there are a few areas in the now (Two, one in the Caribbean, and one in the far east Atlantic) it still looks like no development this week. But, yes, next week may start to see more activity.
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