cieldumort
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Above: NE Gulf Low Visible 8/11/25/2046z
An area of low pressure off the west coast of Florida we have been paying attention to has consolidated more, and as of this morning had become a somewhat well-defined low with winds up to gale-force in spots. While not yet Invest tagged, did add it to their 2PM this afternoon with a "Near Zero" odds of development.
It appears that operational models haven't been handling this system very well. ensembles OTOH have been suggesting something like a 33-45% chance of it becoming a TD early this week before coming ashore in north Florida.
Given the markedly improved structure today and the fact that it is already producing some serious flooding inland, we are starting a Lounge on this feature regardless of whether it is Invest tagged or not.
Interests in the northeast Gulf may want to pay closer attention given the pockets of strong wind and very heavy thunderstorms, and those along the coast and inland may want to have a ready source of weather watches and warnings given how much rain has already fallen and could continue to fall so long as this low is in the region.
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 15 2025 03:26 PM)
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cieldumort
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The low is now inland, pushing northeast of Mobile, AL with a coherent circulation from the surface to the 500mb level, and pulling up copious tropical moisture from out of the Gulf into areas in and around central and northern Alabama, northern Georgia, middle and eastern Tennessee, and eastern Kentucky, with many Flash Flood Watches up into Thursday.
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cieldumort
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This area of low pressure has now moved offshore of the Carolinas and will likely aid in deflecting Erin from striking the United States as it helps create a weakness where high pressure has a hard time to build back in.
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cieldumort
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