MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The fourteenth tropical depression has skipped striaght to Tropical Storm Matthew has formed now in the western Gulf of mexico after a few week break following Jeanne and Lisa.
This is the 13th tropical storm, however, and it's moving eastward right now, expected to move slightly more northeastward in a few days.
The current forecast track has it entering land near Panama City Beach, FL in the Florida Panhandle. This could change however. You folks don't need this after , so I really hope it changes. And likely it will, the confidence in that track is very very low.
The good news however, is that there is a good deal of shear in the gulf, and a baroclinic low trying to form. If matthew tries to move north too soon, that will tear it up. However if it makes its way more eastward it will have a little bit more time to strengthen. But I think conditions in the Gulf right now are likely to keep it just a tropical storm.
No watches or warnings are up currently.
Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Matthew Models -- This image animated over time
Matthew Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Matthew Plots from Weather Underground
Matthew Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Matthew Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tallahassee
Mobile, AL
Tampa Bay
New Orleans
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Mount st. Helens Volcanocam animation
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the new thread Mike. I posted this on the last thread but I'm so angry I am reposting it here:
Yep...straight to Matthew...
I know Ed doesn't like bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!
This thing was a TD yesterday...why they had to futz around with whether it will be subtropical, baroclinic yada yada yada. Now we have a friggin' Tropical Storm in the GOM...and they tell us on a Friday Afternoon at 5:00 on a Holiday Weekend! Thanks...
At least anyone on these boards had warning.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200414.html
I know the folks on the Gulf coast have had enough. My UWF student just got back to school on the 5th. I'm really hoping this won't be too bad.
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Well, This country girl is headed to the hills of Citronelle (30 miles north of Mobile, AL). Supposed to meet the adjuster (finally) in the morning from damage. Maybe it will help him see where the roof is leaking. You guys pray that my daughter's school cancels their homecoming program tomorrow. I've been trying to tell them for three days that this was coming, but they said "if it rains" this and "if it rains" that. Oh well, I may stay in the hills (inside) of Citronelle while they tromp through the mud tomorrow. We'll see. But, please whisper a prayer for us in the Mobile area. Thanks.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> please whisper a prayer for us in the Mobile area. Thanks.
You got it.
Maybe you should give the school a link to this site...
I hope and pray this doesn't make it above TS status...it won't take much to finish off what couldn't...
The Season From Hell...like VD...the gift that just keeps on giving... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steveunplugged
Unregistered
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>>I know Ed doesn't like bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!
Bastardi had been pretty irritated about it too (as I'm sure you read). There is a split between a developing baroclinic low in the NW Gulf and the LLC of Matthew witch es meving easthward (sic - old joke) which will probably turn up into the Panhandle. Bastardi thinks it moves toward the Big Bend and emerges on the other side Wed. and possibly runs the coast ala Hazel 1954. Ain't much happening here except for a couple inches of rain, but I've got the beer iced up for tonight and plan on hanging out on my carport all night drinking. Good luck to all and may the severity be limited in your general area.
Steve
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Bastardi had been pretty irritated about it too (as I'm sure you read). There is a split between a developing baroclinic low in the NW Gulf and the LLC of Matthew witch es meving easthward (sic - old joke)
Steve - LOL. Yeah, last thread I posted on JB. Love the "Matthew" reference. I knew it wouldn't take long 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Thanks for the prayers. Who knows, maybe we'll still be talking about this being offshore on Monday!?!?! I know we need rain, but it was blowing so hard this morning in Citronelle, it almost blew the tarps off the house. Well, there isn't really anything we can do except wait, watch and pray. Thanks for all of the wonderful information that this board provides. I had a judge friend who is a weather freak like me (they threaten to buy me a slicker suit at work - I am a paralegal) who gave me this site two or three years ago and I have been hooked ever since, just too shy or think I am too dumb (weather wise) to post. Thanks again to all!!!
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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Kimberly, Mobile is such a lovely city. I have really enjoyed my visits there.
I will certainly keep the folks there in my prayers.
Take care.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If they waited this long to declare it a tropical storm, it will be a cat 2 hurricane before it makes landfall and the landfall will be in Central Florida instead of Alabama. The give it an inch theory in operation here. ( I am not irritated just not surprised that anything else tropical this year will be downplayed no matter how bad it is because the money, time and efforts it takes to mobilize the weary people who have been moving from disaster to disaster this year.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Site note, I added a new RDF/RSS feed for storm positions http://flhurricane.com/xml/currentstormsrss.xml
off a request, it's real short and should work ok with things like live bookmarks in firefox and other rss news gatherers. (Note this is in addition to and seperate from the main page news rss feed)
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Wheee, seems we're back in business again :-/
Great job on the RSS deal, this site just keeps getting better 
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[witty phrase here]
Edited by leetdan (Fri Oct 08 2004 06:26 PM)
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Soutehrn4sure
Unregistered
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Hey Kim....Just wanted to send a friendly Mobilian hello
I live in Semmes but have a good friend in Chunchula...
Southern4sure
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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VLAD GURERRO!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 082333
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/2333Z
B. 24 DEG 35 MIN N
93 DEG 46 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 181 DEG 009 NM
F. 266 DEG 35 KT
G. 178 DEG 021 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 26 C/ 323 M
J. 25 C/ 325 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 02DDA INVEST OB 23
MAX FL WIND 50 KT E QUAD 2149Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
MAX FL TEMP 26C 190/032NM FROM FL CNTR.
not a good sign....pressure still at 1000mb
and strong winds on inbound to east of center...55mph....around 45 at surface i think...but inner structure only .1nm wide and winds still at 35kts....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 09 2004 12:38 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Will number 13 be a lucky number or an unlucky number. The overall weather scenario described makes it sound like the tropical storm will never be a very big problem to anyone, but I have to wonder why the was so slow to discuss it. Either they were hoping it would go away, or it is so unpredictable that no one wants to take a stab at it. I hope that it is just a temporary wobble in forecasting expertise 
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Fri Oct 08 2004 08:45 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Thomas also had this thing as a storm for days too. Here is what he had to say at noon today:
I just reviewed the latest visible, IR and water vapor satellite imagery loops and other raw synoptic weather data. We still have a low level circulation and even more convection today then yesterday. But we do have some WSW wind shearing.
In my 31+ year weather forecasting career judgment, we not only have had T.D. #14 in the western GOM for a couple of days, we now T.S. Matthew.
And here is what he said as of 4 pm today:
Yes T.C. Matthew is a threat to Florida. I've been banging this war drum since Saturday September 25, 2004 and will continue. Right now I'm calling the disturbance in the SW Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Storm Matthew, even though the /TPC is still not even identifying it as a tropical depression.
My initial probable landfall was Panama City BUT as far east as Cedar Key is possible as a CAT 1 hurricane. As a matter of fact depending on just how the steering pattern hammers out, the whole west coast of Florida north of Naples must watch and prepare for a possible hurricane strike early next week.
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am afraid that my gut feeling when I saw the position of this storm tonight for the first time was a big uh..oh... for Tampa Bay. It has been fortunate to this point to be at odd angles to approaching storms and has been through some near misses. But, its about the only place in Florida left that has not been thoroughly pounded. That makes it a big fat bull's eye if the eastward trend continues. From the Northwestatlantic satellite angle it looks chillingly like it could do that. But then two dimensional pictures are deceiving.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Concerned about the consistant cold cloud tops being maintained by Matthew. WV indicating a 2nd Low developing just W of Matthew, as mentioned by TPC in ADV#1.
And the Low moving due south along the CO / KA border into TX. The low seems to be intensifying, and is beginning to trigger Thunderstorm activity in W Texas, per WV loops through 0100Z.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
I hope that it is just a temporary wobble in forecasting expertise.
LOL. Let's hope so. A lot of us with a child named Matthew were hoping this would never come, but knew it was inevitable.
... And we thought we might enjoy a second weekend in a row around here without having to think about tropical storms, etc. Certainly, a lot can happen in the next few days, although the sooner Matthew leaves the scene, the better.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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