Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Watching a low development chance (20%) wave in the far east Atlantic. July likely to close out without another system.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 291 (Matthew) , Major: 4293 (11 y 9 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 327 (Hermine) Major: 4293 (11 y 9 m) (Wilma)
Weather Statements for Selected Locations [ Customize Locations ]
Click to Expand Weather Text Tropical Weather Outlook (Graphical - 5 day - Discussion - Sat - Wundermap) 8:00 PM EDT (History)
Click to Expand Weather Text Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Florida Panhandle) 8:23 PM EDT (History)
Click to Show Local Outlooks and Discussions Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions (8)
Latest CFHC News - See More News...
Article Icon

Tropical Atlantic is Busy Again With Tropical Storm Don

Posted: 01:42 PM 17 July 2017 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:20 PM 17-Jul EDT

12:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Update
This morning's reconnaissance flight found Don succumbing to increasing shear and the abundance of nearby dry air, and in fact, the official NHC forecast now calls for a continued weakening trend, with outright dissipation in just 36 hours. However, to remind our readers, Don is a small cyclone, susceptible to changes in intensity, and as such, it is possible that Don takes advantage of a more favorable window that could open up tonight, and strengthen some about the time it crosses the southernmost Lesser Antilles.

Elsewhere, Invest 96L is struggling even more so with dry air, and remains out at sea.

-Ciel

5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update
Recon has found that Invest 95L has become Tropical Storm Don, the fifth tropical cyclone and fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
-Ciel


Original Entry:



The advertised DNA of 2017 favors development of named cyclones in the Main Development Region (A 'box' generally thought of as south of 20°N, and from 70°W to 20°W). We are now watching not one but two new disturbances in this region: Invests 95L and another, TBD.

As of 1:00PM EDT Monday July 17, recon is approaching Invest 95L, which has been looking more organized than yesterday, despite the appearance of struggling with some nearby dry air, as well as what is probably the diurnal convective minimum. Recon will be looking to see if 95L has developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient convective structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should consider watching these. Of note, Invest 95L is a bit of a smaller incipient tropical cyclone, and as such, could intensify faster than a larger system would. Model tracking of 95L (with its moniker updated if and as necessary), is also available in the 95L Forecast Lounge .


Tropical Storm Don Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Don


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Don (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Don (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Don

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Don
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Don -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


E. Carib Radar Recording

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Facebook Update Posted
01:31 pm 26-Jul-2017 EDT

Watching a low development chance (20%) wave in the far east Atlantic. July likely to close out without another system.

Facebook Update Posted
06:48 pm 20-Jul-2017 EDT

Remnant #96L pulsing today. We'll keep watch. Looking to next month - a possible big uptick in the Atlantic. Explained: #flhurricane.com

Facebook Update Posted
06:09 pm 20-Jul-2017 EDT

Looking ahead, the Atlantic may flip to very active by next month, with potential for long-lived and strong tropical cyclones that form in or near the Main Development Region. Here's a comprehensive look at why, and who may be at risk. As always, my opinions only. Not meant to be used for any planning, critical or otherwise - Ciel http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=97649&gonew=1#UNREAD

Facebook Update Posted
09:57 am 20-Jul-2017 EDT

Atlantic likely to remain quiet until near mid August due to shear. East Pacific very active.

Facebook Update Posted
02:33 pm 19-Jul-2017 EDT

#Don done in by SAL and shear. Invest #96L struggling mightily; flying low. Atlantic waters still warming up. #flhurricane.com

Facebook Update Posted
11:05 pm 18-Jul-2017 EDT

July in th ATL #Don has degenerated into an open wave. Slim odds of redevelopment in Atlantic. #96L struggling. #flhurricane.com

The Tropics Today
cieldumort (11 replies)
2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season?
2017 Forecast Lounge
cieldumort (3 replies)
TS DON Lounge
cieldumort
96L Lounge
cieldumort (6 replies)
East Atlantic Tropical Wave
MikeC (20 replies)
TD FOUR Lounge
CFHC 2017
CFHC is a Weather Enthusiast Run Site Focusing on East Central Florida and the Entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin since 1995
Maintained by:
John R. Cornelius - Cocoa, FL
Michael A. Cornelius - Orlando, FL
Meteorologist Ed Dunham - Melbourne, FL
Site Design by:
Christine M. Hahn - Allentown, PA
CFHC is NOT an official weather source, please only use us as a supplement to official weather outlets.
20436124
[ Hide This Bar ]

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center