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Basin Enters Peak
Posted: 11:01 PM 21 August 2025 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 04:25 PM 24-Aug EDT
3:00PM EDT 23 August 2025 Update
Advisories are "almost 100%" coming at any time today for Invest 90L as it tracks north and closer to the island of Bermuda. For now, a direct hit remains a lower risk than it seemed this time yesterday.
Perhaps of greater concern, models have started to wake up on Invest 99L, with a few operational runs and several ensembles now developing it in the Caribbean. This would be a landlocked tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic should this occur.
NHC has just tasked several missions to investigate 99L later this weekend as it approaches and passes through the Windwards. They may find it a developing tropical cyclone by then, and it is not inconceivable that PTC Advisories could go out should current trends continue, despite the present very low NHC 20% odds. Models have consistently underbid this system. Tenacious disturbances are always worthy of paying extra attention to.
Finally, and already close to home, we are monitoring the potential for a hybrid system to develop off the southeast coast late this weekend into early next week.
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 23 August 2025 Update
Watches could be going up for Bermuda later today with Invest 90L, now very likely to become our next named storm. Modeling favors a track east of the island, but impacts would be in the cards regardless of a direct hit or not. The next name on the list this year is Fernand.
We are also still monitoring Invest 99L approaching the eastern Caribbean. This disturbance has already been what many would allow to be considered a bona fide tropical storm, but is presently dealing with some moderate shear. As it nears the Windwards later this weekend, shear could relax, allowing it another chance to organize, and interests in and near the eastern Caribbean may want to stay alert for any changes in its strength. Locally heavy rain and gusty conditions seem to be on tap in spots at a minimum as it moves through the Windwards Sunday and Monday.
Ciel
Original Update
Behind (formerly Cat 5) Hurricane Erin, the Atlantic basin is still primed for an active season, overall. While social mediarologists love to hype the extremes ("NO STORMS THIS YEAR!") ("WORST HURRICANE EVER THIS THIS!") for clicks, Flhurricane has and will always continue to play it straight.
2025 is still more favored than not to be above-average in terms of Names, Hurricanes, Majors and ACE. While not any guarantee, this simply means that the dice are arguably a little weighted to the bigger digits.
Near-term and closer to home:
Invest 99L probably already qualifies as a Tropical Storm. Awaiting the official NHC decision desk, but suffice it to say, we need to watch this one closer either way, as it starts at a much lower latitude than many others this season.
Invest 90L has been getting more press as the better candidate, but that only has been the case if 99L didn't pull it off soon enough. Both are more likely than not to get named. 99L could directly threaten the Caribbean. 90L could make a direct strike on Bermuda, potentially even as a Major. Time to take some initial preps if in these regions.
Deep-Dive Model Discussion Lounges
99L Forecast Lounge (Central Tropical Atlantic)
90L Forecast Lounge (Rounding Leewards)
Hurricane Erin Forecast Lounge
Advisories are "almost 100%" coming at any time today for Invest 90L as it tracks north and closer to the island of Bermuda. For now, a direct hit remains a lower risk than it seemed this time yesterday.
Perhaps of greater concern, models have started to wake up on Invest 99L, with a few operational runs and several ensembles now developing it in the Caribbean. This would be a landlocked tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic should this occur.
NHC has just tasked several missions to investigate 99L later this weekend as it approaches and passes through the Windwards. They may find it a developing tropical cyclone by then, and it is not inconceivable that PTC Advisories could go out should current trends continue, despite the present very low NHC 20% odds. Models have consistently underbid this system. Tenacious disturbances are always worthy of paying extra attention to.
Finally, and already close to home, we are monitoring the potential for a hybrid system to develop off the southeast coast late this weekend into early next week.
Ciel
8:00AM EDT 23 August 2025 Update
Watches could be going up for Bermuda later today with Invest 90L, now very likely to become our next named storm. Modeling favors a track east of the island, but impacts would be in the cards regardless of a direct hit or not. The next name on the list this year is Fernand.
We are also still monitoring Invest 99L approaching the eastern Caribbean. This disturbance has already been what many would allow to be considered a bona fide tropical storm, but is presently dealing with some moderate shear. As it nears the Windwards later this weekend, shear could relax, allowing it another chance to organize, and interests in and near the eastern Caribbean may want to stay alert for any changes in its strength. Locally heavy rain and gusty conditions seem to be on tap in spots at a minimum as it moves through the Windwards Sunday and Monday.
Ciel
Original Update
Behind (formerly Cat 5) Hurricane Erin, the Atlantic basin is still primed for an active season, overall. While social mediarologists love to hype the extremes ("NO STORMS THIS YEAR!") ("WORST HURRICANE EVER THIS THIS!") for clicks, Flhurricane has and will always continue to play it straight.
2025 is still more favored than not to be above-average in terms of Names, Hurricanes, Majors and ACE. While not any guarantee, this simply means that the dice are arguably a little weighted to the bigger digits.
Near-term and closer to home:
Invest 99L probably already qualifies as a Tropical Storm. Awaiting the official NHC decision desk, but suffice it to say, we need to watch this one closer either way, as it starts at a much lower latitude than many others this season.
Invest 90L has been getting more press as the better candidate, but that only has been the case if 99L didn't pull it off soon enough. Both are more likely than not to get named. 99L could directly threaten the Caribbean. 90L could make a direct strike on Bermuda, potentially even as a Major. Time to take some initial preps if in these regions.
Deep-Dive Model Discussion Lounges
99L Forecast Lounge (Central Tropical Atlantic)
90L Forecast Lounge (Rounding Leewards)
Hurricane Erin Forecast Lounge
Erin Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Erin
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Erin
CyclonicWx Page for Erin
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erin
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erin (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Erin
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erin
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Fernand Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fernand
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Fernand
CyclonicWx Page for Fernand
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fernand
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fernand (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Fernand
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fernand
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fernand -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 99L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 99
CyclonicWx Page for 99
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:
North Carolina Power Outage Map
North Carolina Flood Inundation and Mapping Network
WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)
WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)
WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
Erin begins to leave the stage as others start to step in
Posted: 11:25 AM 09 August 2025 | 21 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:25 PM 21-Aug EDT
11:45AM EDT 21 August 2025 Update
Erin continues pulling away from land but impacts remain as the cyclone is very large. Erin should continue to track ENE and is forecast to undergo post-tropical transition in the next 2-3 days or so.
Erin Key Messages from today's 11AM NHC Update
There are now also three other systems in the Atlantic being monitored by NHC.
First, and closest to land, newly Invest-tagged 90L is approaching the northern Leewards. This feature may very well become our second hurricane of the year, and while likely to head out to sea, interests from the northern Caribbean islands to Bermuda may want to watch.
Second, the robust wave behind 90L we have been tracking continues on a WSW trajectory and its window for TC genesis now appears to be a little longer than NHC was thinking early on. As this system is still undeveloped and traveling at low latitude, despite a forecast of less than ideal conditions for further development ahead, those in and along the eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying it more attention.
Third, the area of low pressure we have been tracking since it was in the northeastern Gulf and went on to track offshore of the Carolinas (Lounge: " Stealthy Low in NE Gulf now Offshore of Carolinas"), continued ENE and became a well-defined, small sub-tropical low yesterday, with more development overnight. This feature now sports a Dvorak of T2 and could become a named storm as it goes harmlessly fishing
Ciel
11:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
With the 11AM NHC Update, Erin is just shy of being a Major Hurricane again.
Erin is an especially large and powerful hurricane now markedly improving in structure, with pressures lowering and maximum winds (sustained and gusts) responding in kind. With regard to Erin's structure, one of the best ways to think about it might be as a very large tropical storm with a now redeveloping Major hurricane in the middle, as mentioned by Dr. Greg Postel, or perhaps as a very powerful subtropical hurricane, reminiscent of Ike (2008) in the Gulf but if one also stuck a Major Hurricane its belly. Either analogy works, with the point being that Erin is not ones garden variety hurricane, and as such, while still tracking offshore and out-to-sea, dangerous and potentially life-threatening impacts will be felt far and wide.
Elsewhere, the large and broad trof/wave we have been watching since its exit out of Africa is now approaching the Caribbean. The northern portion is in the most favorable environment for development and models have started warming up to this again, with development more probable than not perhaps as it nears or round the Leewards in a few days/over the weekend, and NHC has tentatively prepared for an initial flight around 19.0N 61.5W to investigate. Some model runs have also taken its robust southern lobe across northernmost South America and pick it back up in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and/or next week, and is worth monitoring.
Invest 99L in the far eastern Atlantic is NHC 40% odds of development within the next day or two before conditions for further development are expected to turn unfavorable. This system is likely to track at a lower latitude for a while either way, and is also worth monitoring.
Today is August 20, considered the informal "kick-off" to the real heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the basin is certainly acting like it.
Ciel
5:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is forecast to slowly restrengthen today. Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the outer banks all the way to the Virginia border now this morning. Overwash has occurred in parts of the outerbanks already. Some webcamera timelapses available https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Erin+%282025%29
5:00PM EDT 18 August 2025 Update
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.
6:00PM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Dare County Emergency Management has issued an evacuation of Hatteras Island in the North Carolina Outer Banks (Zone A). Evacuation begins Tuesday Morning. Erin is a very large hurricane that could negatively impact the delicate area even without a direct landfall.
8:00AM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is down to 125MPH winds, with a large eyewall replacement and expanding in size. After the eyewall replacement is complete it has the chance to regain some strength. It is still a major hurricane. It will get close enough to the Turks and Caicos to cause Tropical Storm force winds, thus a tropical storm warning is up, but it will not get close enough for hurricane force winds. Then the official track takes and up and out between North Carolina and Bermuda. It's possible one or the other also receives some fringe heavy bands and possible tropical storm conditions as it does Thursday, but any direct landfall is unlikely.
5:00PM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
5PM Update from NHC holds Erin at 160 MPH, but this is an estimate. Recon has not been in for many hours and while it may be starting to show initial signs of filling, pinhole eye type scenes are very hard to get an intensity handle on, even with recon flying into them, as it becomes a little more challenging to penetrate and drop sondes in what is not totally unlike a couple mile wide tornado vortex in such situations.
Recon is flying in again soon and we should have a better handle on Erin's real current intensity. Could be up, could be down, could very well still be 160.
Ciel
10:00AM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
Above: Erin's past track and points (kept bending south), most recent recon VDMs (keep bending south), and forecast track line and points (keep getting nudged south but still pointing WNW, for now).
Erin may now be a Category 5 hurricane, having undergone completely unforecast Rapid Intensification (RI) overnight, unforeseen by almost all models. However, one Global kept hinting that RI sooner than later ~ along with a more westward track overall ~ was a possibility (ICON).
It is safe to say that there are now some wrinkles in Erin's forecast. Once every so often a hurricane goes wildly off-script. Erin is already there having become this strong, this fast, and tracking south of forecast for eight hours or so now. Forecasts for Erin's strength and importantly track should be taken with a little less certainty this morning, and interests from the Northern Leeward Islands to the east coast of the United States, perhaps particularly the OBX, may want to begin paying much closer attention.
This is a potentially very dangerous hurricane.
Ciel
8:00PM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Another area, 10% is mentioned on the outlook offshore of the Carolinas. This is the area that flooded parts of Southwest Florida last weekend and moved through the Gulf, over land and back out to sea. This is ahead of Erin, it has about until Monday to potentially develop. Unlikely, but a few ensembles show it.
Forecast lounge for this feature https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115724&gonew=1#UNREAD
9:00AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Recon has found that Erin has become a hurricane. This should be reflected shortly in the next NHC update.
Ciel
8:30AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Quick update to highlight the feature a lot closer to land, Invest 98L. Models have woken up and the latest runs are more suggestive of 65% or so odds of it becoming a TD or low-end (wind-wise) TS prior to or just upon pushing ashore somewhere either side of the MX/TX coastal border region later today. More than anything, this is a potential flood threat in areas already hammered by several rounds of flooding last month.
The second recon mission into 98L is en route to provide forecasters and models with critical data not otherwise available.
Ciel
8:45PM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Above: Water Vapor imagery of Erin and Invest 98L at 0035z August 15, 2025 Cr. Weathernerds.org
Erin is on the cusp of being a hurricane tonight. There are a few hints that there could be a center slide or reformation that models have not yet factored in, and this is something to watch overnight into tomorrow morning as there could thus be an adjustment in forecast track on the way. Regardless, at a minimum, very dangerous and potentially life-threatening rip currents will almost be a certainty along a vast portion of the east coast of the United States, and potentially even more significant impacts down the road from there on the east coast and/or Bermuda.
Invest 98L is now up to NHC 50% odds of becoming a Tropical Cyclone. This is in the face of modeling that largely remains unrealistically cool on its potential. Potential Tropical Cyclone Watches and/or Warnings could be put up as soon as later tonight or Friday morning for portions of the Gulf coast from northeastern Mexico to along coastal south Texas. Realistically, this incipient cyclone will likely be coming in as a pretty serious inland flood threat, and interests from deep south Texas into the Texas Hill Country, including locations recently affected by devastating floods may want to start paying close attention to this developing situation and stay tuned to reliable local sources of accurate information.
Ciel
9AM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin is a 50mph Tropical Storm this morning, still heading generally west, and not expected to reach hurricane strength until the weekend. There's also an area in the Bay of Campeche that has a 20% chance to develop. Erin's forecast to stay north of the Northeastern Caribbean Islands, but they could feel a few fringe outer effects Beyond that it's still a bit tricky, but it's generally headed toward the gap between North Carolina and Bermuda right now. However it's still not comfortably certain yet, recon aircraft are going to be able to head out starting late tonight to help get a better situation and data for the hurricane center.
Modeling is still a bit too uncertain without the recon. Although it is looking better for Bermuda, most models have shifted west of it. However, things like the 6z GFS Ensembles this morning, make it clear how much recon is very much needed.
7PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
We have just opened up a Forecast Lounge on newly Invest-tagged 98L in the Bay of Campeche. While models suggest its chances are extremely low, this system is landlocked and in a very favorable environment for development. Regardless of development, this system could have the potential to become a serious rain/flood-marker, which is always a very real risk with the "weak" ones. 98L Forecast Lounge
Ciel
5PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has strengthened today to a 50mph Tropical storm.
Erin is unlikely to directly impact the Caribbean islands, however Bermuda and parts of the US east coast could still be affected indirectly (surf, rip currents). It's important to monitor it. Especially in Bermuda and Eastern North Carolina.
Recon aircraft is en route to the area and will go to Erin tomorrow evening. The air force recon planes will be based out of St. Croix, and the NOAA ones out of Barbados.
8AM EDT 12 August 2025 Update
Erin continues to move west quickly around 22mph. Some easterly shear influence should keep it from strengthening much, if at all, for the day or so. Beyond that conditions start to improve, and by the time it gets over to the west conditions greatly improve, especially west of 60 west, where it has a chance to become very intense. The official forecast takes it north of the Caribbean, but folks in the islands will want to watch in the unlikely case anything changes. Low confidence beyond that, Bermuda has the largest chance to see impacts from the system, but other areas including the Bahamas and US coast, although fairly unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
I do want to reiterate how fast and weak the system are now could nudge the forecast track south enough to get closer to (not necessarily) over the Caribbean islands. So do not let your guard down there. The shear may be enough to weaken Erin a bit before it has a chance to strengthen again.
10:15AM EDT 11 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the East Atlantic, it's something to watch closely, but not too concerning at the moment.
Most likely the energy remains offshore of the US, Bermuda will likely need to watch this very closely as it's most likely they will at least see some periphery impacts.
There's still about a 5% chance it could come closer to the Continental United States. The Caribbean Islands are unlikely, the Bahamas (particularly south and east) may need to watch. The Canadian Maritimes will also want to keep tabs on Erin.
It could get close however, close to the outer banks or new England are most likely if it does, but landfall is unlikely. So it's important to watch for trends over the next week or two.
8:15PM EDT 10 August 2025 Update
There have been worse looking tropical lows called TDs than Invest 97L at this time, and it is likely that the system gets the official designation within the next 12 hours or so. Presently, very tropical depression-like conditions are tracking over the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic.
Over the next 24-48 hours, our incipient Tropical Cyclone (97L) bumps into a region of less unstable and outright subsident air while it tracks over slightly cooler waters. This may stall any further intensification until it reaches the warmer SSTs further west where it has a better chance to become a formidable Cape Verde type hurricane if all the stars remain aligned.
Closer to home, a curious area of low pressure, primarily aloft but also with a surface reflection, exists within a larger trof region in the eastern Gulf. While not yet Invest tagged, there are some ensembles that want to develop it into a depression before it pushes inland over north Florida early in the coming week, and we'll be watching. Lots and lots of rain, either way.
Ciel
Original Update
Invest 97L is a system in the far east Atlantic that just exited Africa, it's poised to a be a long track system. If it gets a name it'll be Erin. The 1995 version of Erin was the first hurricane to be covered by this website.
97L's long term future is uncertain, climatology and ensembles suggest it remains offshore, but odds are only slightly favorable for that outcome, not enough for comfort by any means. So it must be watched by those and the Caribbean and beyond for the trends. If the system becomes a depression it'll get advisories as well. Now that the system is an invest the more specific Hurricane models we begin to be ran on it.
Lots of time to watch where this goes.
More models and speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.
Erin continues pulling away from land but impacts remain as the cyclone is very large. Erin should continue to track ENE and is forecast to undergo post-tropical transition in the next 2-3 days or so.
Erin Key Messages from today's 11AM NHC Update
Quote:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.
2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today through early Friday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.
There are now also three other systems in the Atlantic being monitored by NHC.
First, and closest to land, newly Invest-tagged 90L is approaching the northern Leewards. This feature may very well become our second hurricane of the year, and while likely to head out to sea, interests from the northern Caribbean islands to Bermuda may want to watch.
Second, the robust wave behind 90L we have been tracking continues on a WSW trajectory and its window for TC genesis now appears to be a little longer than NHC was thinking early on. As this system is still undeveloped and traveling at low latitude, despite a forecast of less than ideal conditions for further development ahead, those in and along the eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying it more attention.
Third, the area of low pressure we have been tracking since it was in the northeastern Gulf and went on to track offshore of the Carolinas (Lounge: " Stealthy Low in NE Gulf now Offshore of Carolinas"), continued ENE and became a well-defined, small sub-tropical low yesterday, with more development overnight. This feature now sports a Dvorak of T2 and could become a named storm as it goes harmlessly fishing
Ciel
11:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
With the 11AM NHC Update, Erin is just shy of being a Major Hurricane again.
Erin is an especially large and powerful hurricane now markedly improving in structure, with pressures lowering and maximum winds (sustained and gusts) responding in kind. With regard to Erin's structure, one of the best ways to think about it might be as a very large tropical storm with a now redeveloping Major hurricane in the middle, as mentioned by Dr. Greg Postel, or perhaps as a very powerful subtropical hurricane, reminiscent of Ike (2008) in the Gulf but if one also stuck a Major Hurricane its belly. Either analogy works, with the point being that Erin is not ones garden variety hurricane, and as such, while still tracking offshore and out-to-sea, dangerous and potentially life-threatening impacts will be felt far and wide.
Elsewhere, the large and broad trof/wave we have been watching since its exit out of Africa is now approaching the Caribbean. The northern portion is in the most favorable environment for development and models have started warming up to this again, with development more probable than not perhaps as it nears or round the Leewards in a few days/over the weekend, and NHC has tentatively prepared for an initial flight around 19.0N 61.5W to investigate. Some model runs have also taken its robust southern lobe across northernmost South America and pick it back up in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and/or next week, and is worth monitoring.
Invest 99L in the far eastern Atlantic is NHC 40% odds of development within the next day or two before conditions for further development are expected to turn unfavorable. This system is likely to track at a lower latitude for a while either way, and is also worth monitoring.
Today is August 20, considered the informal "kick-off" to the real heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the basin is certainly acting like it.
Ciel
5:00AM EDT 20 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is forecast to slowly restrengthen today. Tropical Storm Warnings are up along the outer banks all the way to the Virginia border now this morning. Overwash has occurred in parts of the outerbanks already. Some webcamera timelapses available https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Erin+%282025%29
5:00PM EDT 18 August 2025 Update
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.
6:00PM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Dare County Emergency Management has issued an evacuation of Hatteras Island in the North Carolina Outer Banks (Zone A). Evacuation begins Tuesday Morning. Erin is a very large hurricane that could negatively impact the delicate area even without a direct landfall.
8:00AM EDT 17 August 2025 Update
Hurricane Erin is down to 125MPH winds, with a large eyewall replacement and expanding in size. After the eyewall replacement is complete it has the chance to regain some strength. It is still a major hurricane. It will get close enough to the Turks and Caicos to cause Tropical Storm force winds, thus a tropical storm warning is up, but it will not get close enough for hurricane force winds. Then the official track takes and up and out between North Carolina and Bermuda. It's possible one or the other also receives some fringe heavy bands and possible tropical storm conditions as it does Thursday, but any direct landfall is unlikely.
5:00PM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
5PM Update from NHC holds Erin at 160 MPH, but this is an estimate. Recon has not been in for many hours and while it may be starting to show initial signs of filling, pinhole eye type scenes are very hard to get an intensity handle on, even with recon flying into them, as it becomes a little more challenging to penetrate and drop sondes in what is not totally unlike a couple mile wide tornado vortex in such situations.
Recon is flying in again soon and we should have a better handle on Erin's real current intensity. Could be up, could be down, could very well still be 160.
Ciel
10:00AM EDT 16 August 2025 Update
Above: Erin's past track and points (kept bending south), most recent recon VDMs (keep bending south), and forecast track line and points (keep getting nudged south but still pointing WNW, for now).
Erin may now be a Category 5 hurricane, having undergone completely unforecast Rapid Intensification (RI) overnight, unforeseen by almost all models. However, one Global kept hinting that RI sooner than later ~ along with a more westward track overall ~ was a possibility (ICON).
It is safe to say that there are now some wrinkles in Erin's forecast. Once every so often a hurricane goes wildly off-script. Erin is already there having become this strong, this fast, and tracking south of forecast for eight hours or so now. Forecasts for Erin's strength and importantly track should be taken with a little less certainty this morning, and interests from the Northern Leeward Islands to the east coast of the United States, perhaps particularly the OBX, may want to begin paying much closer attention.
This is a potentially very dangerous hurricane.
Ciel
8:00PM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Another area, 10% is mentioned on the outlook offshore of the Carolinas. This is the area that flooded parts of Southwest Florida last weekend and moved through the Gulf, over land and back out to sea. This is ahead of Erin, it has about until Monday to potentially develop. Unlikely, but a few ensembles show it.
Forecast lounge for this feature https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115724&gonew=1#UNREAD
9:00AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Recon has found that Erin has become a hurricane. This should be reflected shortly in the next NHC update.
Ciel
8:30AM EDT 15 August 2025 Update
Quick update to highlight the feature a lot closer to land, Invest 98L. Models have woken up and the latest runs are more suggestive of 65% or so odds of it becoming a TD or low-end (wind-wise) TS prior to or just upon pushing ashore somewhere either side of the MX/TX coastal border region later today. More than anything, this is a potential flood threat in areas already hammered by several rounds of flooding last month.
The second recon mission into 98L is en route to provide forecasters and models with critical data not otherwise available.
Ciel
8:45PM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Above: Water Vapor imagery of Erin and Invest 98L at 0035z August 15, 2025 Cr. Weathernerds.org
Erin is on the cusp of being a hurricane tonight. There are a few hints that there could be a center slide or reformation that models have not yet factored in, and this is something to watch overnight into tomorrow morning as there could thus be an adjustment in forecast track on the way. Regardless, at a minimum, very dangerous and potentially life-threatening rip currents will almost be a certainty along a vast portion of the east coast of the United States, and potentially even more significant impacts down the road from there on the east coast and/or Bermuda.
Invest 98L is now up to NHC 50% odds of becoming a Tropical Cyclone. This is in the face of modeling that largely remains unrealistically cool on its potential. Potential Tropical Cyclone Watches and/or Warnings could be put up as soon as later tonight or Friday morning for portions of the Gulf coast from northeastern Mexico to along coastal south Texas. Realistically, this incipient cyclone will likely be coming in as a pretty serious inland flood threat, and interests from deep south Texas into the Texas Hill Country, including locations recently affected by devastating floods may want to start paying close attention to this developing situation and stay tuned to reliable local sources of accurate information.
Ciel
9AM EDT 14 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin is a 50mph Tropical Storm this morning, still heading generally west, and not expected to reach hurricane strength until the weekend. There's also an area in the Bay of Campeche that has a 20% chance to develop. Erin's forecast to stay north of the Northeastern Caribbean Islands, but they could feel a few fringe outer effects Beyond that it's still a bit tricky, but it's generally headed toward the gap between North Carolina and Bermuda right now. However it's still not comfortably certain yet, recon aircraft are going to be able to head out starting late tonight to help get a better situation and data for the hurricane center.
Modeling is still a bit too uncertain without the recon. Although it is looking better for Bermuda, most models have shifted west of it. However, things like the 6z GFS Ensembles this morning, make it clear how much recon is very much needed.
7PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
We have just opened up a Forecast Lounge on newly Invest-tagged 98L in the Bay of Campeche. While models suggest its chances are extremely low, this system is landlocked and in a very favorable environment for development. Regardless of development, this system could have the potential to become a serious rain/flood-marker, which is always a very real risk with the "weak" ones. 98L Forecast Lounge
Ciel
5PM EDT 13 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has strengthened today to a 50mph Tropical storm.
Erin is unlikely to directly impact the Caribbean islands, however Bermuda and parts of the US east coast could still be affected indirectly (surf, rip currents). It's important to monitor it. Especially in Bermuda and Eastern North Carolina.
Recon aircraft is en route to the area and will go to Erin tomorrow evening. The air force recon planes will be based out of St. Croix, and the NOAA ones out of Barbados.
8AM EDT 12 August 2025 Update
Erin continues to move west quickly around 22mph. Some easterly shear influence should keep it from strengthening much, if at all, for the day or so. Beyond that conditions start to improve, and by the time it gets over to the west conditions greatly improve, especially west of 60 west, where it has a chance to become very intense. The official forecast takes it north of the Caribbean, but folks in the islands will want to watch in the unlikely case anything changes. Low confidence beyond that, Bermuda has the largest chance to see impacts from the system, but other areas including the Bahamas and US coast, although fairly unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
I do want to reiterate how fast and weak the system are now could nudge the forecast track south enough to get closer to (not necessarily) over the Caribbean islands. So do not let your guard down there. The shear may be enough to weaken Erin a bit before it has a chance to strengthen again.
10:15AM EDT 11 August 2025 Update
Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the East Atlantic, it's something to watch closely, but not too concerning at the moment.
Most likely the energy remains offshore of the US, Bermuda will likely need to watch this very closely as it's most likely they will at least see some periphery impacts.
There's still about a 5% chance it could come closer to the Continental United States. The Caribbean Islands are unlikely, the Bahamas (particularly south and east) may need to watch. The Canadian Maritimes will also want to keep tabs on Erin.
It could get close however, close to the outer banks or new England are most likely if it does, but landfall is unlikely. So it's important to watch for trends over the next week or two.
8:15PM EDT 10 August 2025 Update
There have been worse looking tropical lows called TDs than Invest 97L at this time, and it is likely that the system gets the official designation within the next 12 hours or so. Presently, very tropical depression-like conditions are tracking over the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic.
Over the next 24-48 hours, our incipient Tropical Cyclone (97L) bumps into a region of less unstable and outright subsident air while it tracks over slightly cooler waters. This may stall any further intensification until it reaches the warmer SSTs further west where it has a better chance to become a formidable Cape Verde type hurricane if all the stars remain aligned.
Closer to home, a curious area of low pressure, primarily aloft but also with a surface reflection, exists within a larger trof region in the eastern Gulf. While not yet Invest tagged, there are some ensembles that want to develop it into a depression before it pushes inland over north Florida early in the coming week, and we'll be watching. Lots and lots of rain, either way.
Ciel
Original Update
Invest 97L is a system in the far east Atlantic that just exited Africa, it's poised to a be a long track system. If it gets a name it'll be Erin. The 1995 version of Erin was the first hurricane to be covered by this website.
97L's long term future is uncertain, climatology and ensembles suggest it remains offshore, but odds are only slightly favorable for that outcome, not enough for comfort by any means. So it must be watched by those and the Caribbean and beyond for the trends. If the system becomes a depression it'll get advisories as well. Now that the system is an invest the more specific Hurricane models we begin to be ran on it.
Lots of time to watch where this goes.
More models and speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.
Erin Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Erin
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Erin
CyclonicWx Page for Erin
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erin
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erin (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Erin
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erin
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erin -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 99L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 99
CyclonicWx Page for 99
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 90L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 90
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 90
CyclonicWx Page for 90
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:
North Carolina Power Outage Map
North Carolina Flood Inundation and Mapping Network
WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)
WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)
WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
The August Activity Ramp Up
Posted: 02:00 PM 02 August 2025 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:11 AM 09-Aug EDT
2:30PM EDT 6 August 2025 Update
The area in the East Atlantic is now being tracked as invest 96L, the area off the southeast chances have dropped to 30%. Right now there is nothing too concerning for land areas out in the Atlantic.
11:00AM EDT 6 August 2025 Update
Dexter and his sibling, possibly soon to be Invest, appear set on a course offshore and hopefully also with the sibling, out to sea. It would not surprise to see the Invest TBD get a name and more or less follow Dexter's path.
Way out in the Tropical Atlantic, NHC has assigned 60% development odds to a wave that thus far has failed to impress. Steering currents are still in play, but most yet not all modeling suggests a recurve. This one is still worth keeping watch, in that if it does track more westerly conditions could be favorable for a US impact ~ still a long, long way out and no need to start packing bags.
A few other areas we are keeping tabs on, nothing urgent.
Ciel
2:00PM EDT 3 August 2025 Update
Invest 95L is on the cusp of becoming Dexter, but fortunately will likely track out to sea. However, behind it, NHC is now officially mentioning the potential development for a sibling/spawn of 95L. Modeling suggests that if a TC forms in the wake of 95L/Dexter, it would have a much better chance of heading back towards the east coast.
Ciel
12:30AM EDT 3 August 2025 Update
The area of low pressure that has developed along the frontal zone stretched SW-NE offshore of the east coast has been Invest tagged, 95L, and we have started a Lounge on this feature.
Invest 95L appears poised to make a very good run at becoming our next named storm and has a slight chance of heading towards land but will more probably head out to sea. Of potentially greater interest and concern, is that some model runs are suggesting 95L spins off or helps "spawn" another cyclone in its wake, one that could more easily be steered towards the eastern seaboard.
We will be doing deeper dives into this Invest and its potential spawn/sibling in the Lounge: 95L and Possible Spawn Forecast Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
Typical of August, activity, but not guaranteed, the Hurricane season starts to ramp up, with activity already off the North Carolina coast (visible on satellite and radar) with a 30% chance currently for development. If this system develops, it will likely remain weak and move away from the US mainland out to sea.
Beyond this, activity seems to ramp up on ensemble and other modeling in mid August, but too soon to say any particulars for it. But mid to late August (at least) may get busy. However nothing in particular is concerning at the moment, other than the general trends. We're mainly monitoring to see if these persist. One area, exiting Africa, has a 20% chance to develop, somewhere over a large region in the central Atlantic. If anything develops out there it is likely to turn out to sea well before the Caribbean.
Persistence in the modeling, and convection, and activity is the key.
Another area in the east Atlantic has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
The area in the East Atlantic is now being tracked as invest 96L, the area off the southeast chances have dropped to 30%. Right now there is nothing too concerning for land areas out in the Atlantic.
11:00AM EDT 6 August 2025 Update
Dexter and his sibling, possibly soon to be Invest, appear set on a course offshore and hopefully also with the sibling, out to sea. It would not surprise to see the Invest TBD get a name and more or less follow Dexter's path.
Way out in the Tropical Atlantic, NHC has assigned 60% development odds to a wave that thus far has failed to impress. Steering currents are still in play, but most yet not all modeling suggests a recurve. This one is still worth keeping watch, in that if it does track more westerly conditions could be favorable for a US impact ~ still a long, long way out and no need to start packing bags.
A few other areas we are keeping tabs on, nothing urgent.
Ciel
2:00PM EDT 3 August 2025 Update
Invest 95L is on the cusp of becoming Dexter, but fortunately will likely track out to sea. However, behind it, NHC is now officially mentioning the potential development for a sibling/spawn of 95L. Modeling suggests that if a TC forms in the wake of 95L/Dexter, it would have a much better chance of heading back towards the east coast.
Ciel
12:30AM EDT 3 August 2025 Update
The area of low pressure that has developed along the frontal zone stretched SW-NE offshore of the east coast has been Invest tagged, 95L, and we have started a Lounge on this feature.
Invest 95L appears poised to make a very good run at becoming our next named storm and has a slight chance of heading towards land but will more probably head out to sea. Of potentially greater interest and concern, is that some model runs are suggesting 95L spins off or helps "spawn" another cyclone in its wake, one that could more easily be steered towards the eastern seaboard.
We will be doing deeper dives into this Invest and its potential spawn/sibling in the Lounge: 95L and Possible Spawn Forecast Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
Typical of August, activity, but not guaranteed, the Hurricane season starts to ramp up, with activity already off the North Carolina coast (visible on satellite and radar) with a 30% chance currently for development. If this system develops, it will likely remain weak and move away from the US mainland out to sea.
Beyond this, activity seems to ramp up on ensemble and other modeling in mid August, but too soon to say any particulars for it. But mid to late August (at least) may get busy. However nothing in particular is concerning at the moment, other than the general trends. We're mainly monitoring to see if these persist. One area, exiting Africa, has a 20% chance to develop, somewhere over a large region in the central Atlantic. If anything develops out there it is likely to turn out to sea well before the Caribbean.
Persistence in the modeling, and convection, and activity is the key.
Another area in the east Atlantic has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Tropical Storm Dexter Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 4
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 4
CyclonicWx Page for 4
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 4
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 4 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 4
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 4 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 96L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 96
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 96
CyclonicWx Page for 96
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
Last Third of July Potentials Kick off w 94L
Posted: 06:00 PM 20 July 2025 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:17 PM 25-Jul EDT
7AM CDT 23 July 2025 Update
The weak trof which includes some remnant energy from old Invest 93L that looped back around is now in the north central Gulf. A recon mission has been tentatively scheduled to check it out today and so we could be tracking Invest 95L here in a bit.
This feature has a very low chance of development into a TC before moving inland over Texas and/or Louisiana later this week, but is worth monitoring given the very warm Gulf waters and the sensitivities to additional rain across sections of the south.
Ciel
8PM EDT 22 July 2025 Update
There is a new 10% area being tracked, this is part of the remnants of invest 93L that loop back over into the Atlantic, but it's unlikely to develop in the Gulf, but there's a slight chance if it gets its act together. (Other parts of 93L split and went into Texas too) If it gets another Invest it'll wind up with 95L.
Some of the models suggest parts of it may loop back once again into the Atlantic and Gulf next week as well.
Original Update
The final stretch of July has a few areas of interest worth monitoring, none of which are particularly concerning at this time, however.
In the Main Development Region east of the Caribbean, a tropical wave has a marginal environment to work in, but could eek it out. This wave has now been Invest tagged, 94L, and hyper-focused model runs have begun.
Later this week, on-and-off support exists for the development of something tropical either side of Florida, but thus far there's nothing to really hang ones hat on for tracking.
Elsewhere, the remnant swirl of 93L hasn't given up the ghost just yet, providing some much appreciated clouds and a few light showers across Texas.
Ciel
The weak trof which includes some remnant energy from old Invest 93L that looped back around is now in the north central Gulf. A recon mission has been tentatively scheduled to check it out today and so we could be tracking Invest 95L here in a bit.
This feature has a very low chance of development into a TC before moving inland over Texas and/or Louisiana later this week, but is worth monitoring given the very warm Gulf waters and the sensitivities to additional rain across sections of the south.
Ciel
8PM EDT 22 July 2025 Update
There is a new 10% area being tracked, this is part of the remnants of invest 93L that loop back over into the Atlantic, but it's unlikely to develop in the Gulf, but there's a slight chance if it gets its act together. (Other parts of 93L split and went into Texas too) If it gets another Invest it'll wind up with 95L.
Some of the models suggest parts of it may loop back once again into the Atlantic and Gulf next week as well.
Original Update
The final stretch of July has a few areas of interest worth monitoring, none of which are particularly concerning at this time, however.
In the Main Development Region east of the Caribbean, a tropical wave has a marginal environment to work in, but could eek it out. This wave has now been Invest tagged, 94L, and hyper-focused model runs have begun.
Later this week, on-and-off support exists for the development of something tropical either side of Florida, but thus far there's nothing to really hang ones hat on for tracking.
Elsewhere, the remnant swirl of 93L hasn't given up the ghost just yet, providing some much appreciated clouds and a few light showers across Texas.
Ciel
Invest 94L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 94
CyclonicWx Page for 94
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
93L in the Gulf
Posted: 08:23 AM 13 July 2025 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:01 PM 17-Jul EDT
7:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
The last outlook reduced chances to 0, and 93L has no more chances to develop over land. It will bring an area of :Heavy rain, particularly in Western Louisiana tonight through tomorrow.
12:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L is a hot mess and unlikely to become a TC today, but those odds are also not zero for several reasons, none of which so far look to be materializing. Consequently, the disturbance is coming into Louisiana primarily as flood-threat, which would have been the case either way, but now with less wind as one would expect in a TD or named storm.
Looking ahead, models are increasingly warming up that forecast with 93L remnants looping back around for a second-go in the Gulf and/or even a split scenario with part of the energy in the Gulf and part off the Carolinas. Additionally, the deep tropical Atlantic may be waking up.
Ciel
6:00AM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L's time to develop is nearly up and it looks unlikely to before reaching Louisiana. However, some heavy rainfall in bands and around the core can still cause issues, particularly south and west. Elsewhere heavy rain will be come and go from bands, particularly in the late afternoon and evening. some areas will see much more than others.. Monitor local weather services and officials for more information. Southern Louisiana will see the most rain today, and it will likely more wll shift west closer to Lake Charles and south of Lafayette through tomorrow. Beyond that, the remnants will have to be watched for heavy rains/flooding through parts of MS, AL, GA, TN, and NC as it could loop back into the Atlantic.
12:30PM CDT Update 16 July 2025
The axis of 93L, now a trof, is just now exiting western Florida and entering the northernmost Gulf of America. The environment in this portion of the Gulf is actually suitable for development, with very warm water and light shear, and provided the Area of Interest doesn't track too far north (land, again), or too far south (shear, again), could have a Goldilocks moment.
Ciel
7:00AM EDT Update 16 July 2025
93L continues to be a relatively disorganized elongated north-to-south low with heaviest convection west and south of the area. It's currently straddling the Florida Panhandle coastline. The proximity to the north Gulf coast is likely to keep any development limited today, but has a chance to develop slightly before reaching Louisiana (if it does it would be more likely as it gets much closer to Louisiana).
Most of the rain is going to remain offshore, except in late afternoon and early evening when storms will pop up more along the lines from it with the exception of the areas very close to the elongated center. Also banding east of the system trailing it may affect more of Florida today. Extreme Southeastern Louisiana may also see more rain than normal.
Once over Louisiana the area may linger around in the general area keeping rain chances up for days later for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Panhandle.
7:00AM EDT Update 15 July 2025
93L appears to be close to moving into Florida between New Smyrna Beach and Cape Canaveral (close to Oak Hill/Apollo Beach in a remote area along the Canaveral National Seashore) This will likely bring some of the heaviest rainfall just to the south of it, Including Titusville through Melbourne, and the Orlando area, and gradually move across, later in the day the afternoon heating may kick in and enhance the bands as it moves across the state, some of which could be strong. Development into a depression before landfall is unlikely, but it's still fairly close, circulation is still evident on radar and satellite.
The surface low itself is somewhat elongated north to south, concentrated near the Brevard/Volusia county line based on buoy observations with another northeast of there visible on satellite. The mid level is more southwest of that.
Once in the Gulf there remains a chance for it to develop into the Gulf as a depression or Dexter, but depends on the state it leaves Florida in.
2:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
The area off Florida is now being tracked as Invest area 93L.
12:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
Organization of our Area of Interest Invest TBD is underway quite a bit quicker than most models have predicted, and doing so while still east of Florida. Recon has been tasked to head into the system tomorrow, but there may still be a flight later today.
While not typical, it is not at all unheard of for a developing tropical cyclone to cross Florida from east to west, into the Gulf, while strengthening, and those in and around the state may want to begin paying much closer attention as this system is likely to also be a copious rain-producing flood risk, regardless of designation.
Once in the Gulf, conditions there may become sufficiently beneficial for this one to become our first hurricane of the year. Stay tuned.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT Update 13 July 2025
The Area of Interest off the southeast coast has just been tentatively tasked for recon starting Monday. Modeling is increasingly looking favorable on this feature's chances for development and another "homegrown" style system could already be in the making.
While TC numbers during the first two months typically do not foretell how things will play out the rest of a season, they often are from non-tropical entities that acquire sub-tropical to tropical characteristics doing so close to land, which is where most of us live, which means potential impacts.
Occasionally, the broad global atmosphere conspires to make home-grown Atlantic systems considerably more possible than most years. In addition to what is likely to be Invest tagged shortly just off the southeast coast, some attention may also start to be paid to a small, but well-defined area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NC/Virginia border that has developed on the trailing end of an east-west oriented front and may be in the process of separating from its parent front.
We now have a Forecast Lounge up on the Area of Interest off the southeast, where we will be delving deeper into its model runs and such: 93L Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
The lemon area (20%) of the coast is being watched for potential weak development mid week. With models mixed on it, mostly weak, with the exception of the icon.
On satellite the area in question is coming from the convection off the southeast coast, which is expected to travel over Florida monday evening and enter the Gulf. Right now it's only a 20% development.
(Satellite photo from 8AM EDT Sunday 13 July 2025)
This means anywhere the convection passes over will see lots of rain into Florida, and it's likely this area will have a shot at development. It's plenty warm in the Gulf, shear may affect it somewhat. It'll be worth watching closely over the next few days to see how this area progresses. It's likely the area of storms off the Southeast will become an invest area either later today or tomorrow.
For now it's just something to monitor closely.
The last outlook reduced chances to 0, and 93L has no more chances to develop over land. It will bring an area of :Heavy rain, particularly in Western Louisiana tonight through tomorrow.
12:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L is a hot mess and unlikely to become a TC today, but those odds are also not zero for several reasons, none of which so far look to be materializing. Consequently, the disturbance is coming into Louisiana primarily as flood-threat, which would have been the case either way, but now with less wind as one would expect in a TD or named storm.
Looking ahead, models are increasingly warming up that forecast with 93L remnants looping back around for a second-go in the Gulf and/or even a split scenario with part of the energy in the Gulf and part off the Carolinas. Additionally, the deep tropical Atlantic may be waking up.
Ciel
6:00AM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L's time to develop is nearly up and it looks unlikely to before reaching Louisiana. However, some heavy rainfall in bands and around the core can still cause issues, particularly south and west. Elsewhere heavy rain will be come and go from bands, particularly in the late afternoon and evening. some areas will see much more than others.. Monitor local weather services and officials for more information. Southern Louisiana will see the most rain today, and it will likely more wll shift west closer to Lake Charles and south of Lafayette through tomorrow. Beyond that, the remnants will have to be watched for heavy rains/flooding through parts of MS, AL, GA, TN, and NC as it could loop back into the Atlantic.
12:30PM CDT Update 16 July 2025
The axis of 93L, now a trof, is just now exiting western Florida and entering the northernmost Gulf of America. The environment in this portion of the Gulf is actually suitable for development, with very warm water and light shear, and provided the Area of Interest doesn't track too far north (land, again), or too far south (shear, again), could have a Goldilocks moment.
Ciel
7:00AM EDT Update 16 July 2025
93L continues to be a relatively disorganized elongated north-to-south low with heaviest convection west and south of the area. It's currently straddling the Florida Panhandle coastline. The proximity to the north Gulf coast is likely to keep any development limited today, but has a chance to develop slightly before reaching Louisiana (if it does it would be more likely as it gets much closer to Louisiana).
Most of the rain is going to remain offshore, except in late afternoon and early evening when storms will pop up more along the lines from it with the exception of the areas very close to the elongated center. Also banding east of the system trailing it may affect more of Florida today. Extreme Southeastern Louisiana may also see more rain than normal.
Once over Louisiana the area may linger around in the general area keeping rain chances up for days later for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Panhandle.
7:00AM EDT Update 15 July 2025
93L appears to be close to moving into Florida between New Smyrna Beach and Cape Canaveral (close to Oak Hill/Apollo Beach in a remote area along the Canaveral National Seashore) This will likely bring some of the heaviest rainfall just to the south of it, Including Titusville through Melbourne, and the Orlando area, and gradually move across, later in the day the afternoon heating may kick in and enhance the bands as it moves across the state, some of which could be strong. Development into a depression before landfall is unlikely, but it's still fairly close, circulation is still evident on radar and satellite.
The surface low itself is somewhat elongated north to south, concentrated near the Brevard/Volusia county line based on buoy observations with another northeast of there visible on satellite. The mid level is more southwest of that.
Once in the Gulf there remains a chance for it to develop into the Gulf as a depression or Dexter, but depends on the state it leaves Florida in.
2:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
The area off Florida is now being tracked as Invest area 93L.
Invest 93L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 93
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 93
CyclonicWx Page for 93
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
12:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
Organization of our Area of Interest Invest TBD is underway quite a bit quicker than most models have predicted, and doing so while still east of Florida. Recon has been tasked to head into the system tomorrow, but there may still be a flight later today.
While not typical, it is not at all unheard of for a developing tropical cyclone to cross Florida from east to west, into the Gulf, while strengthening, and those in and around the state may want to begin paying much closer attention as this system is likely to also be a copious rain-producing flood risk, regardless of designation.
Once in the Gulf, conditions there may become sufficiently beneficial for this one to become our first hurricane of the year. Stay tuned.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT Update 13 July 2025
The Area of Interest off the southeast coast has just been tentatively tasked for recon starting Monday. Modeling is increasingly looking favorable on this feature's chances for development and another "homegrown" style system could already be in the making.
While TC numbers during the first two months typically do not foretell how things will play out the rest of a season, they often are from non-tropical entities that acquire sub-tropical to tropical characteristics doing so close to land, which is where most of us live, which means potential impacts.
Occasionally, the broad global atmosphere conspires to make home-grown Atlantic systems considerably more possible than most years. In addition to what is likely to be Invest tagged shortly just off the southeast coast, some attention may also start to be paid to a small, but well-defined area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NC/Virginia border that has developed on the trailing end of an east-west oriented front and may be in the process of separating from its parent front.
We now have a Forecast Lounge up on the Area of Interest off the southeast, where we will be delving deeper into its model runs and such: 93L Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
The lemon area (20%) of the coast is being watched for potential weak development mid week. With models mixed on it, mostly weak, with the exception of the icon.
On satellite the area in question is coming from the convection off the southeast coast, which is expected to travel over Florida monday evening and enter the Gulf. Right now it's only a 20% development.
(Satellite photo from 8AM EDT Sunday 13 July 2025)
This means anywhere the convection passes over will see lots of rain into Florida, and it's likely this area will have a shot at development. It's plenty warm in the Gulf, shear may affect it somewhat. It'll be worth watching closely over the next few days to see how this area progresses. It's likely the area of storms off the Southeast will become an invest area either later today or tomorrow.
For now it's just something to monitor closely.
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Ed Dunham
Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida
Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore of east-central Florida on the morning of October 7, 2016, as a Category III Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. The diameter of the eye at 5AM on Friday, October 7th, was 35NM and its location was 28.2N 80.0W or about 36 miles east of Patrick AFB with a movement to the north northwest at 13mph. Matthew moved parallel to the Florida coastline from Fort Pierce to Saint Augustine and then northward thereafter toward the South Carolina coast. Matthew never made landfall in Florida - the closest approach was at 6AM when the western edge of the eyewall brushed Cape Canaveral. Although the Tropical Storm force windfield was large, sustained winds of Hurricane strength only extended 40NM from the center on the western side of the tropical cyclone. Sustained hurricane force winds on land were confined to a small area at South Patrick Shores on the Barrier Island and a small area on the eastern tip of Cape Canaveral. In all other east central Florida coastal locations sustained winds of strong tropical storm force were observed. Storm total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range except that some areas in Sanford received up to 9 inches of rain. Storm surge was in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east central Florida coast. During the storm, weather observations were not available from Indialantic, Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral AFS and Titusville Airport - leaving a critical void in the meteorological record.
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
General Links
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Best Track FTP, official source of invest data - Full Active Invest/Storm List
Interactive Wundermap
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Google Deepmind models (New for 2025) -Atlantic Animation of Google Model
CIMSS Tropical Weather
Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
Tropical Tidbits Models
Pivotal Weather Models (Icon, Euro, EuroAI, Canadian )
WeatherNerds Ensembles
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
Weathermodels.com
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams), TropicalAtlantic, storm2k, Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - , Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update The Eyewall/Matt Lanza - Yaakov Cantor / Hurricane Hacker
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Best Track FTP, official source of invest data - Full Active Invest/Storm List
Interactive Wundermap
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Google Deepmind models (New for 2025) -Atlantic Animation of Google Model
CIMSS Tropical Weather
Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
Tropical Tidbits Models
Pivotal Weather Models (Icon, Euro, EuroAI, Canadian )
WeatherNerds Ensembles
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
Weathermodels.com
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams), TropicalAtlantic, storm2k, Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - , Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update The Eyewall/Matt Lanza - Yaakov Cantor / Hurricane Hacker
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
