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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the RioGrande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

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The hurricane appears to now be moving more west-northwestward this morning, estimated at 285/13 kt. Beryl should maintain this west-northwest heading as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico
could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of Mexico. How sharply Beryl turns poleward from 36-72 h will likely depend on the storm's vertical depth, with a more vertically deep system more likely to feel the ridge weakness and upper-level flow. In fact, that scenario has been highlighted by the last few cycles of the ECMWF ensembles which show stronger solutions on the north side of the track envelope. The overall guidance this cycle has also made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and
the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in that direction may be necessary later today.

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2 AM EDT 4 July 20214 Update
Happy Independence Day, America!



Beryl seems to have declared its independence from Jamaica, and is increasingly less tangled up in the island. Additionally, outflow may be getting a little more effective at battling back westerly/southwesterly shear again. Furthermore, waters in the northwestern Caribbean are expectionally warm, and shear may even relax by Friday. As such, it would not be surprising to see Beryl still a formidable hurricane en route to the Yucatan.

Longer-range, NHC explicitly forecasts that Beryl enters deep south Texas early next week. It is still less certain whether, should this happen, it would do so by way of landfalling along the Texas coast, or coming up from just south of the TX/MX border. Entrance through the Texas coast not only implies greater impacts on the state just by the location of landfall, but potentially a stronger system as well.

Those along the coast and just inland from Tampico, Mexico to greater Houston, TX may want to keep checking back a little more often over the next 96 hours or so.

11 AM EDT 3 July 20214 Update

Hurricane Beryl has been on a weakening trend, but not nearly fast enough or weakening enough to spare places like Jamaica, the Caymans and the Yucatan coming up, from hurricane-force winds torrential rains, flooding and mudslides. In addition, life-threatening surge could raise water levels up to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche



1:45PM EDT 2 July 20214 Update
Category 5 historic Hurricane Beryl is now about 500 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica tracking west-northwest. Generally speaking, many models have been trending poleward over all, which is unsurprising given Beryl's stronger (deeper) state that helps these cyclones feel more of the tugs and shoves north, and that these models now also have the benefit of loads of invaluable recon data.

Initially, there were many forecasters proclaiming that Beryl would never reach the US. This is foolishness. We should never put too much stock in a hurricane forecast out much past five days, with exceptions.

It is now time for those with interests in the northwestern Caribbean to eastern Mexico and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico including potentially the southern United States, to begin paying more attention, and for those in Jamaica specifically to begin making preparations to protect life and property.

Forecasts for Beryl's track and intensity will continue to update and be fine-tuned as the cyclone draws closer to each individual location, and it is always advisable to listen most to the National Hurricane Center and trusted local weather and emergency management experts.

11AM July 2 2024 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault

Original Update


Throughout Monday, Hurricane Beryl continued to further organize and intensify, defying official forecasts for a plateauing, and shortly before the 11PM Advisory came out, recon found definitively that Beryl has become a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 MPH. With this, Beryl now sets yet another all-time record, this time for the earliest forming Cat 5 in the Atlantic.

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SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault

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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Trinidad
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Rojo south to Puerto Veracruz.

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Ciel

4:00PM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Recon has been flying Invest 94L today and NHC Advisories will likely be coming shortly.
Ciel


11:35AM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Recon's most recent passes are finding surface winds that would support an update to Cat 4 shortly. If verified, once again this would be yet another "ahead of schedule" intensification.

Beryl may very well be making a run for Category 5 prior to reaching the Windwards. Those in its path should be rushing preparations to protect life and property. Catastrophic impacts may arrive within the next 18-24 hours.
Ciel


6:00AM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Beryl is now forecast to become a Category 4 Hurricane when it crosses the Windwards islands, with the most direct impacts in the hurricane warning area, and particularly the Grenadine.

A serious situation is setting up for parts of these islands, those there should rush preparations as today is the last full day to get them complete.

Beyond this those in the cone should be monitoring, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. It is forecast to weaken somewhat once it hits shear in the Caribbean, but still forecast to be a hurricane then. Those in the Yucatan Peninsula also need to watch.

Also the area east of Beryl is now being tracked as invest 96L with a 70% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

94L has entered the Bay of Campeche and has a 50% chance to develop.

Recon is nearing Beryl and will have reports soon on just how strong it is, it may even be a major already.



8:30PM EDT 29 June 20214 Update
Beryl is now up to an 80 MPH hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for Martinique and Tobago.
Hurricane Warnings now join Barbados for St. Lucia. and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands and Grenada.

4:30PM EDT 29 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm Beryl is now Hurricane Beryl and forecast to become a major hurricane with 120mph winds near the Windward islands. Hurricane Warnings are now up for Barbados. This is the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June on record, breaking the old record set in 1933 by the 1933 "Trinidad Hurricane".

11AM EDT 29 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm Beryl is now up to a 65mph storm and now forecast to become a Major hurricane as is crosses the Windward islands on Monday.

Hurricane watches are now up for Barbados, St. Lucia , St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Trinidad..

Tropical Storm Watches are up for Tobago and Martinique. .


Beyond this the track shifted a little left, but those in the cone, particularly Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should watch this system closely.

8AM EDT 28 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm Beryl has strengthened into a 60mph Tropical storm, and expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.

Because of this Hurricane watches are up for Barbados. Other hurricane watches for islands west of Barbados may be issued later today.

For Barbados conditions likely will begin to deteriorate Sunday night and the closet approach during the day Monday. Beyond wind, extreme amounts of rainfall 3 to 6 inches (maybe more localized) in some areas. And some surge from 2 to 4 feet, especially on the eastern facing sides of the islands for those areas in or the right of the eye.

The area east of Beryl now has a 60% chance to develop, and those in the same islands as Beryl should continue to monitor that as well. Chris is the next name on the list. Also 94L has a chance to develop once in the Bay of Campeche, so Mexico should watch that.

Beryl is the strongest June tropical storm this far east in the tropical Atlantic on record. Recon is staged at St. Croix and will fly into Beryl tomorrow.




11:PM EDT 28 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm beryl has formed from Tropical Depression Two . No watches or warnings for the islands have been issued yet, but likely will tomorrow. Those in the Windward islands of the Caribbean should be watching this system closely for Monday.

Beyond that the cone takes it toward Jamaica by Wednesday, but anyone along or near the cone should be keeping up with this system.

6:45PM EDT 28 June 20214 Update
In addition to newly-designated TD TWO east of the Windwards, there are additional features in the Atlantic that are showing continued model support for development, which is not surprising given the unseasonably very favorable background state of much of the basin.

Closest to land already, we have now started a Lounge on Invest 94L in the northwest Caribbean 94L Forecast Lounge . Then behind TD TWO, we are also monitoring two additional robust waves. Again, much more remiscent of the heart of a hurricane season than June or July.
Ciel

Original Update
Tropical Depression Two forms east of the Windward islands. Watches are likely for parts of the Windward islands overnight for Monday as a hurricane is forecast to arrive there then. Beyond that, those in the cone should pay close attention.

It's likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl tonight or early tomorrow.

Beryl Event Related Links

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Tropical Tidbits Page on system

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Beryl
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Beryl

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Beryl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Beryl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Beryl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Beryl -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Beryl Lounge

TD THREE Event Related Links

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Tropical Tidbits Page on system

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of THREEl
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of THREEl

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of THREEl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of THREEl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of THREEl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for THREEl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on THREEl -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

lnvest 96L Event Related Links

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Tropical Tidbits Page on system

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 96l
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96l

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96l (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96l (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96l

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96l
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96l -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

10:30AM CDT Update 23 June
Invest 93L began coming together overnight and now has a much more compact and better defined circulation with deep convection. Quite small over all. Recon is in there and it seems like a coin toss as to whether or not NHC determines it to be a TD just heading into coming ashore.

Impacts for Mexico will largely be the extra heavy rains falling on areas that neither need or want it after Alberto.

12:30PM EDT Update 22 June
Recon's first flight into the broad low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has just departed Keesler AFB. While conditions for development do not look as favorable as they did for pre-Alberto before it, and the system - Invest 93L - is not nearly as large, heavy rains will be falling over places that are still cleaning up after significant flooding from Tropical Storm Alberto. New and additional flooding over extreme south Texas and Mexico is possible to likely regardless of development.

Elsewhere, the well-defined tropical low pressure in the SW Atlantic, Invest 92L, has moved just inland along the coast of SE Georgia, bringing with it rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms that are mostly still over the open waters south to east of the center, owing to persistent shear and nearby dry air.


6:30AM EDT Update 21 June
Recon is en route to investigate 92L. Based on currently available ship and buoy reports, the system possibly does have a well enough defined low level circulation and could already be nearing or at tropical storm force in a small radius, but enough uncertainty remains for NHC to be cautious. However, any increase in their confidence would likely trigger Advisories for northeast FL to the SE US Coast. Recon will determine whether or not it is already a tropical cyclone.

92L is a small system, and as such, its intensity can go up or down quicker than a lumbering and large system such as Alberto, and is moving into an area somewhat more favorable for continued organization. Those in its track may want to consider treating it as if it were a small tropical cyclone, regardless of what recon does or does not find here in a few hours.
-Ciel


10:40AM EDT Update 19 June
Alberto has made landfall in Mexico this morning, causing flooding rainfall there and in parts of texas, as well as coastal flooding.

92L now has a 40% chance to develop, and is a very small area not well picked up by models, but in a area of low shear, recon is scheduled to head out there this afternoon. If it were to make landfall, the next name is Beryl, and it would be in north Florida (north of Daytona). Since it's a very small system, only the area near landfall will likely see much. Rip currents along the beach will be issues there.

4:30PM CDT Update 19 June
Tropical Storm Alberto continues in the Gulf, bringing rain and some coastal surge flooding to the Texas coast.

Invest 92L is now being tracked with the area east of the Bahamas, at the 2PM outlook development chances were at 20%, but likely to rise at 8PM.

9AM CDT Update 19 June
It appears that Tropical Storm Alberto has formed from Potential Tropical Cyclone One ("Storm 1L"). The gradual organization continued overnight and with pressures continuing to drop deep convection has now wrapped around and over the center.

As NHC Advisories are already up, the only real thing that will be changing in the short-term is that they will be issuing advisories with the name. Impacts will largely be the same. While perhaps a bit more focused over Mexico and extreme south Texas, 01L remains a very large system over all, and heavy rains will cover this large area.


10AM CDT Update 18 June
Recon is presently flying its second mission into Potential Tropical Cyclone One this morning and the information they collect will help sort out a few things.

For one, the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone, and may in fact be organizing a bit out of step with earlier pre-development stage forecasts. Based on morning visible satellite loops, 01L could be a touch north and east of where it has been forecast to be. This is not surprising given that 01L is still a sprawling gyre system with multiple embedded transient lobes and what is generally a broad overall "center."

Given that the storm is likely to continue to have a very large area of weather, regardless of precise track and technical classification, those in the western Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor and prepare for a very wet and regionally blustery strong tropical low pressure. As we have just seen with Invest 90L over Florida, it does not take a bona fide tropical cyclone to bring similar and at times destructive, life-threatening weather.

Elsewhere, the Area of Interest east of the Bahamas is struggling to develop, in part due to a blast of shear being enhanced by the outflow around the very large 01L and plenty of dry air overhead and to its west. This feature has a low chance for development, probably "highest" the closer it gets to the southeast US, and so remains worthy of monitoring. Also, just behind 01L another gyre low is expected to form and take a similar track to that of 01L ahead of it. Between this week and next, some locations in Central America, Mexico and Texas may see tremendous rain totals.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 10AM CDT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande, the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

Original Update

Watches and Warnings are now going up for the Invest in the Bay of Campeche that is already producing sustained winds into tropical storm force and likely to become a bona fide Tropical Cyclone prior to landfall. The first name on the list this year is Alberto.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan.

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