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Recon is heading into #92L and it is possible Advisories begin later this morning for NE FL to the SE US coast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
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Tropical Storm Alberto and 92L

Posted: 08:22 PM 17 June 2024 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:10 PM 21-Jun EDT

6:30AM EDT Update 21 June
Recon is en route to investigate 92L. Based on currently available ship and buoy reports, the system possibly does have a well enough defined low level circulation and could already be nearing or at tropical storm force in a small radius, but enough uncertainty remains for NHC to be cautious. However, any increase in their confidence would likely trigger Advisories for northeast FL to the SE US Coast. Recon will determine whether or not it is already a tropical cyclone.

92L is a small system, and as such, its intensity can go up or down quicker than a lumbering and large system such as Alberto, and is moving into an area somewhat more favorable for continued organization. Those in its track may want to consider treating it as if it were a small tropical cyclone, regardless of what recon does or does not find here in a few hours.
-Ciel


10:40AM EDT Update 19 June
Alberto has made landfall in Mexico this morning, causing flooding rainfall there and in parts of texas, as well as coastal flooding.

92L now has a 40% chance to develop, and is a very small area not well picked up by models, but in a area of low shear, recon is scheduled to head out there this afternoon. If it were to make landfall, the next name is Beryl, and it would be in north Florida (north of Daytona). Since it's a very small system, only the area near landfall will likely see much. Rip currents along the beach will be issues there.

4:30PM CDT Update 19 June
Tropical Storm Alberto continues in the Gulf, bringing rain and some coastal surge flooding to the Texas coast.

Invest 92L is now being tracked with the area east of the Bahamas, at the 2PM outlook development chances were at 20%, but likely to rise at 8PM.

9AM CDT Update 19 June
It appears that Tropical Storm Alberto has formed from Potential Tropical Cyclone One ("Storm 1L"). The gradual organization continued overnight and with pressures continuing to drop deep convection has now wrapped around and over the center.

As NHC Advisories are already up, the only real thing that will be changing in the short-term is that they will be issuing advisories with the name. Impacts will largely be the same. While perhaps a bit more focused over Mexico and extreme south Texas, 01L remains a very large system over all, and heavy rains will cover this large area.


10AM CDT Update 18 June
Recon is presently flying its second mission into Potential Tropical Cyclone One this morning and the information they collect will help sort out a few things.

For one, the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone, and may in fact be organizing a bit out of step with earlier pre-development stage forecasts. Based on morning visible satellite loops, 01L could be a touch north and east of where it has been forecast to be. This is not surprising given that 01L is still a sprawling gyre system with multiple embedded transient lobes and what is generally a broad overall "center."

Given that the storm is likely to continue to have a very large area of weather, regardless of precise track and technical classification, those in the western Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor and prepare for a very wet and regionally blustery strong tropical low pressure. As we have just seen with Invest 90L over Florida, it does not take a bona fide tropical cyclone to bring similar and at times destructive, life-threatening weather.

Elsewhere, the Area of Interest east of the Bahamas is struggling to develop, in part due to a blast of shear being enhanced by the outflow around the very large 01L and plenty of dry air overhead and to its west. This feature has a low chance for development, probably "highest" the closer it gets to the southeast US, and so remains worthy of monitoring. Also, just behind 01L another gyre low is expected to form and take a similar track to that of 01L ahead of it. Between this week and next, some locations in Central America, Mexico and Texas may see tremendous rain totals.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 10AM CDT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande, the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

Original Update

Watches and Warnings are now going up for the Invest in the Bay of Campeche that is already producing sustained winds into tropical storm force and likely to become a bona fide Tropical Cyclone prior to landfall. The first name on the list this year is Alberto.
Quote:

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan.




Forecast Lounge is up on Storm 01L Lounge

Elsewhere, we have keen eyes on the presently non-tropical area of low pressure to the east of the Bahamas and also have a Forecast Lounge up for it as well: Area East of Bahamas Forecast Lounge











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Mid June Areas of Interest

Posted: 11:50 PM 15 June 2024 | | Add Comment

9AM 17 June 2024 Update

The large and sprawling Central American Gyre now has two main areas of enhanced/enhancing vorticity associated with it. First, newly-tagged Invest 91L that is attempting to consolidate and build down towards the surface in the southwestern Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico), and Invest 90E on the Eastern Pacific side that has moved inland over Central America and is currently being absorbed by the parent Gyre.

NHC odds are now up to 70% within 48 hours that Invest 91L becomes a bona fide tropical cyclone in the western Gulf. There is a lot of potential for this system to create regional and localized significant and life-threatening flooding with several days of rains and thunderstorms, regardless of development.

Elsewhere, well east of the Bahamas the weak non-tropical low that has developed on the tail-end of an old front and residuals of old 90L still has has a fair chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone before crossing back over Florida and/or the southeastern US in a few days.
-Ciel



8AM 16 June 2024 Update
The area in the Atlantic is now up to a 30% chance for development, with the area highlighted from all of the east coast of Florida into Georgia currently. This likely will be a fast moving rain maker for wherever it makes landfall, and just to the right of that. Likely as early as Thursday.

The area in the gulf is about 60% chance and also most likely a flooding rain maker (albeit a slower moving one than the Atlantic) for Northern Mexico and Parts of Southeastern Texas.

Both should be continued to watch this week.

Original Update
There are two areas of Interest currently, one area in the gulf now has a 60% chance to develop, and this Gulf area is likely not to get too strong, however it could dump flooding rains over Mexico and parts of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin.

The new area is 20% east of the Bahamas and could arrive to Florida or Georgia by Thursday later this week.
This system would arrive mid to late week (Thursday-Friday) before anything would happen there, and moving quickly so time is likely to keep it weaker, and bring some rain (but rain likely won't linger as long).





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The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st

Posted: 12:33 AM 07 April 2024 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:59 PM 14-Jun EDT

1PM EDT Update 13 June
The center of Invest 90L may be pulling away from Florida, but the deep tropical fetch and Central American Gyre that helped create it are still very much in place. Locations in South Florida particularly remain at HIGH RISK today for life-threatening flash flooding.

From NWS WPC
Quote:

A HIGH RISK of Excessive Rainfall is now in effect across parts of South Florida (including the Miami metro region) as additional rounds of heavy rain are likely today over very sensitive locations still recovering from yesterday's flooding. Stay weather aware!






Recon is flying two missions this week. The first, an unassigned presently about the Yucatan. Tomorrow, into 90L off the east coast. Today's scheduled flight into 90L was cancelled.

The active June pattern continues.
-Ciel

2PM EDT Update 8 June
Over the past few decades, once a year or two on average a named storm forms in June in the western Atlantic. Early season activity is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season overall, but suffice it to say, nearly all professional forecasts are now calling for an above average to record setting season and pre-peak development would not surprise.

While most ferocious hurricanes tend to form and threaten during peak months of August through October, even sloppy "weak" tropical cyclones (Depressions and Tropical Storms) can wreak havoc, usually due to excessive rainfall and subsequent flooding.

We are now starting to pay close attention to a developing Central American Gyre in the western Atlantic. These features are fairly common this time of year for that region, but sometimes they can create and/or enhance favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation that then nearly always impacts land. Even without TC genesis, these broad parental areas of low pressure frequently generate ongoing and often heavy rains.

The GFS operational and many of its ensemble members have been sniffing out a TC developing out of this CAG soup and spinning up close to Florida on or about the 15th (Forecast Lounge discussion).There has been some back and forth on this model's forecast intensity, but a few other models and/or their ensemble members are now coming more on board with this idea and providing some better consensus that development may occur close to home, and we will be paying close attention.

While things are still quiet, now would be a great time to gather up the essentials and create plans for potential power loss, flooding and the like.
-Ciel

Original Update
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2024. The National Hurricane Center will resume outlooks a few weeks ahead of that, however, beginning May 15th, the Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume.

Here are the list of names for 2024:



2024: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William

The last time this list of names was used was in 2018, of the names from 2018 Milton replaced Michael on the list, which was a category 5 hurricane that made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL on October 10, 2018. And Francine replaced Florence that made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on September 14th, 2018.

If we use up all the names for 2024, then the National hurricane center will start to use the Alternate naming list, which is

Alternate name list: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, Will



With la nina likely, this year is more probable for a high number of systems, and the prevailing patterns also suggest they will be further west, with more toward the west Atlantic than last year. Some of the numbers for the season are much higher than usual, including Colorado State which is projecting 23 named storms (more than they have ever projected before in April). So this year in particular is one to watch out for more impacts than last year, which had a lot of activity, but most of it stayed away from land. Idalia being the biggest one last year for Florida.

Flhurricane is moved to a different server this year, but the late 90s look is still here. Some of the backend was updated along with the server (newer versions, etc) but the site is mostly unchanged.


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